Now that Affleck has the DGA, which director gets the Oscar?

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  • Daniel B.
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    #541856

    Now that Ben Affleck has won the Directors Guild Award, one of the most accurate predictors of the Best Director winner at the Oscars, but has not been nominated for the Academy Award, who do you think will win the Oscar for Best Director?

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #541858

    Spielberg is basically the only one who can win this. Ang Lee could take it, but I doubt it. Him and Spielberg are on a totally different level than the other nominees. Also, both of them won in this category before. 

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    Daniel B.
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    #541859

    While Spielberg has seemed like the obvious choice since the Oscar nominations were announced, this was also when Lincoln was still a contender at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, and DGA, all of which it lost its best picture/directing categories to Argo.  So now I’m starting to wonder if Lincoln really is Argo‘s strongest competitor, or if perhaps Ang Lee might take it. Part of me wouldn’t be surprised to see Russell, Haneke, or Zeitlin win this. Silver Linings Playbook, Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild all performed much better than we expected for Oscar nominations, so perhaps the Academy’s love for one of those films is stronger than we’ve anticipated. But, nobody has ever won the Best Directing Oscar without a DGA nomination, which only Spielberg and Lee have this year.

    If Ang Lee had lost for directing Brokeback Mountain, he’d be considered quite overdue, and would have much better odds, but right now, Spielberg seems like the most realistic option to win, and despite the small amount of precursors for Spielberg, I think he is expected to win this category.

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    Trent
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    #541860

    I can’t fathom a scenario where Ang Lee doesn’t win. Lincoln will get its dues in Actor and Adapted Screenplay and maybe Supporting Actor. Haneke could win it for being overdue, Russell is unlikely but could get it from support by the actors’ branch. Zeitlin’s nomination is the reward.

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    babypook
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    #541861

    I dont feel comfortable assuming that this is Spielberg’s. almost by default. The  Director race is entirely open.

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    Daniel B.
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    #541862

    I dont feel comfortable assuming that this is Spielberg’s. almost by default. The  Director race is entirely open.

    I agree with you there. The directing category in a sense is a little like the supporting actor race this year. Any one of them could win, but at the moment, Lincoln is the one to beat (Spielberg for director, Jones for supp. actor), but it’s far from a sure thing.

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    BamaEd
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    #541863

    For some reason, I’m feeling Russell here. He’s had 2 films in a row with multiple acting noms. I don’t see them giving SLP screenplay, but can Harvey work his magic for a director win?

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    Laactingnyc
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    #541864

    Ang Lee.

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    babypook
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    #541865

    For some reason, I’m feeling Russell here. He’s had 2 films in a row with multiple acting noms. I don’t see them giving SLP screenplay, but can Harvey work his magic for a director win?

    You just cant underestimate the guy. And, you know, George Clooney…..I hope he doesnt end up gaining 40 lbs, shrinking, and starting to look like Harvey…..  

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    Miss Frost
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    #541866

    I think this is between Speilberg and Lee. Though I don’t see them giving Speilberg his third director win with no real buzz. Ang Lee seems like the most reasonable choice. I think Haneke is a dark horse.

    I honestly don’t understand why Affleck is winning all the other precursors, but I am glad he was snubbed over all these other deserving directors. I do wish though that Bigelow made it in. 

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    babypook
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    #541867

    [quote=”babypook”]I dont feel comfortable assuming that this is Spielberg’s. almost by default. The  Director race is entirely open.

    I agree with you there. The directing category in a sense is a little like the supporting actor race this year. Any one of them could win, but at the moment, Lincoln is the one to beat (Spielberg for director, Jones for supp. actor), but it’s far from a sure thing.[/quote]

    Well that’s the thing. So many of us are assuming that Steve is the guy to beat. But, why? He hasnt won anything anywhere where it mattered. It’s looking more and more that DDL is the only major Oscar it’s going to win. Although, in this crazy unpredictable year, (even though a predictable film will probably win), who the heck knows? Lol. 

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    babypook
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    #541868

    @Miss Frost

    “I  honestly don’t understand why Affleck is winning all the other precursors  “

    Only The Shadow knows…..or maybe Daredevil …

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    AmberK
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    #541869

    I’m looking at how many awards each film is going to win to make that determination.  I don’t expect Lincoln to get anything more than best actor, and they’ve got a 50/50 shot at screenplay.  I don’t think Tommy Lee Jones is going to win, but supporting actor certainly is a wide open category, so maybe he could.  Maybe they are a dark horse for a score, but I’m not sure that’s happening for them.  Life of Pi on the other hand is going to clean up with technical awards.  Last night they just won an ADG, plus an Annie for the tiger animation.  They’re definitely taking best cinematography, special effects, probably score, and I think it’s getting sound editing as well.  It’s also a dark horse for sound mixing.  So here you’ve got Lincoln with a possible 1-4 wins, and Life of Pi with a possible 2-5.  I think Ang Lee has an edge here.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #541870

    Pretty confident in Russell. Lee and Speilberg had thier best chance at DGA and lost. Seem liek movies that people respect but don’t love. I think Russell gets it from same support that got 4 actors nominated. Spoiler is Haneke. 

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    Daniel B.
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    #541871

    Well that’s the thing. So many of us are assuming that Steve is the guy to beat. But, why? He hasnt won anything anywhere where it mattered. It’s looking more and more that DDL is the only major Oscar it’s going to win. Although, in this crazy unpredictable year, (even though a predictable film will probably win), who the heck knows? Lol. 

    Have any of this year’s director nominees really won anything major?
    So far, Zeitlin has won Image, Russell has won Detroit and Satellite, Lee has won London, Las Vegas and AAFC, Haneke has won National Society of Film Critics, and Spielberg has won Iowa and North Texas.
    It’s Affleck and Bigelow that have been winning numerous accolades. Even P.T. Anderson has won more directing precursors than any of this year’s nominees!

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