2011-12 Probability of Nomination Thread

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  • Trent
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    #233506

    In this thread, keep a list of who you think has the highest chance of being nominated in their respective category.

    Once nominations are announced, this thread will be renamed “Probability of Win” thread.

    Keep updating your list as the year goes on.

    I have included my list below as a model. 

    Reply
    Trent
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    #233508

    Right now I am only doing comedy categories. I will add drama, guest, writing and directing categories as the year goes on.

    Key:

    1-2 = Lock to Get In

    3-4 = Almost a Lock, Extremely Likely to Get In

    5-6 = Very Likely to Get In

    7-9 = Likely to Get In

    10-12 = Just Missed the Cutoff

    13-15 = Possible, But it Would Be a Shocker

    16-18 = Barely Possible

    Comedy Series

    1. Modern Family

    2. 30 Rock

    3. Parks and Recreation

    4. The Big Bang Theory

    5. Curb Your Enthusiasm

    6. Raising Hope

    —————————–

    7. New Girl

    8. Louie

    9. The Office

    10. Happy Endings

    11. Up All Night

    12. 2 Broke Girls

    —————————–

    13. Community

    14. Glee

    15. Suburgatory

    16. House of Lies

    17. How I Met Your Mother

    18. Hot in Cleveland
     

    Comedy Lead Actor

    1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

    2. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

    3. Louis CK, Louie

    4. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

    5. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory

    6. Don Cheadle, House of Lies

    —————————–

    7. Will Arnett, Up All Night

    8. Lead Player from The Office (Ed Helms?)

    9. Lucas Neff, Raising Hope

    10. Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

    11. Billy Gardell, Mike and Molly

    12. Joel McHale, Community

    —————————– 

    13. Jeremy Sisto, Suburgatory

    14. Rob Lowe, Parks and Recreation

    15. Neil Flynn, The Middle

    16. Ashton Kutcher, Two and a Half Men

    17. Josh Radnor, How I Met Your Mother

    18. David Duchovny, Californication  

    Comedy Lead Actress

    1. Tina Fey, 30 Rock

    2. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

    3. Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

    4. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl

    5. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (only if eligible)

    6. Kat Dennings, 2 Broke Girls

    —————————–

    7. Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly

    8. Christina Applegate, Up All Night

    9. Patricia Heaton, The Middle

    10. Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory

    11. Laura Linney, The Big C

    12. Laura Dern, Enlightened

    —————————–

    13. Kristen Bell, House of Lies

    14. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

    15. Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

    16. Fran Drescher, Happily Divorced 

    17. Jane Levy, Suburgatory

    18. Courteney Cox, Cougar Town

    Comedy Supporting Actor

    1. Ty Burrell, Modern Family

    2. Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

    3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family

    4. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

    5. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation

    6. Garret Dillahunt, Raising Hope

    —————————–

    7. Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation

    8. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

    9. Supporting Player from The Office (Wilson, Helms or Spader?)

    10. Danny Pudi, Community

    11. Nolan Gould, Modern Family

    12. Jake Johnson, New Girl

    —————————– 

    13. Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory

    14. Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

    15. Chris Pratt, Parks and Recreation

    16. Aziz Ansari, Parks and Recreation

    17. Donald Glover, Community

    18. Adam Pally, Happy Endings

    Comedy Supporting Actress

    1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family

    2. Jane Lynch, Glee

    3. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

    4. Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope

    5. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

    6. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
    —————————–

    7. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

    8. Wendie Malick, Hot in Cleveland

    9. Maya Rudolph, Up All Night

    10. Eden Sher, The Middle

    11. Aubrey Plaza, Parks and Recreation

    12. Casey Wilson, Happy Endings
    —————————–

    13. Alison Brie, Community

    14. Busy Phillips, Cougar Town

    15. Rashida Jones, Parks and Recreation

    16. Ariel Winter, Modern Family

    17. Jenna Fischer, The Office

    18. Vanessa Williams, Desperate Housewives

    Comedy Guest Actor

    1. Will Arnett, 30 Rock

    2. John Goodman, Community

    3. Hugh Dancy, The Big C

    4. James Spader, The Office (should he go guest)

    5. Justin Long, New Girl

    6. Doug Stanhope, Louie

    —————————–

    7. Dane Cook, Louie

    8. Kermit the Frog, Saturday Night Live

    9. Charlie Day, Saturday Night Live

    10. David Cross, Modern Family

    Comedy Guest Actress

    1. Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live

    2. Patricia Clarkson, Parks and Recreation

    3. Guest Actress from 30 Rock

    4. Laurie Metcalf, The Big Bang Theory

    5. Gabourey Sidibe, The Big C 

    6. Joan Rivers, Louie

    —————————–

    7. Megan Mullally, Happy Endings

    8. Pamela Adlon, Louie

    9. Parker Posey, The Big C

    10. Amy Sedaris, Raising Hope

    Drama Supporting Actress
    1. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
    2. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife 

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    Constance
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    #233509

    Really?  Really!

    No Jessica Lange in here? 

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    Trent
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    #233510

    In case you were too lazy to read the top…I haven’t done my drama lists yet. And this is NOT a debate thread.

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    Constance
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    #233511

    In case you were too lazy to read the top-

     

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    Anonymous
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    #233512

    Wow you’re weird Mark.  But amusing.

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    Constance
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    #233513

    Wow you’re weird Mark.  But amusing.

    I think we’re ALL weird with varying degrees of success in hiding it.  But, thanks.

     

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    Anonymous
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    #233514

    As long as no one ever has to question me about Streep’s mysterious disappearance we’re cool.

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    Constance
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    #233515

    As long as no one ever has to question me about Streep’s mysterious disappearance we’re cool.

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    Trent
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    #233516

    Added comedy guests and drama supporting actress just for MarkAlexis.

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    Space
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    #233517

    As long as no one ever has to question me about Streep’s mysterious disappearance we’re cool.

    ReplyCopy URL
    TV12
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    #233518

    Comedy Series
    1. Modern Family
    2. 30 Rock
    3. Parks and Recreation
    4. The Big Bang Theory
    5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
    6. New Girl 
    —————————–
    7. Raising Hope 
    8. Louie
    9. The Office
    10. Up All Night
    11. Suburgatory
    12. Mike & Molly
    —————————–
    13. Community
    14. Glee
    15. 2 Broke Girls 
    16. Happy Endings 
    17. The Middle 
    18. Hot in Cleveland  

    Comedy Lead Actor
    1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
    2. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
    3. Louis CK, Louie
    4. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
    5. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
    6. Will Arnett, Up All Night
    —————————–
    7. Don Cheadle, House of Lies
    8. Tim Allen, Last Man Standing
    9. Lucas Neff, Raising Hope
    10. Ashton Kutcher, Two and a Half Men 
    11. Billy Gardell, Mike and Molly
    12. Jeremy Sisto, Suburgatory
    —————————– 
    13. Amaury Nolasco, Work It
    14. Joel McHale, Community
    15. Neil Flynn, The Middle
    16. Benjamin Koldyke, Work It
    17. Josh Radnor, How I Met Your Mother
    18. David Duchovny, Californication  

    Comedy Lead Actress
    1. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
    2. Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
    3. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly 
    4. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
    5. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
    6. Christina Applegate, Up All Night 
    —————————–
    7. Patricia Heaton, The Middle
    8. Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory
    9. Kat Denning, 2 Broke Girls
    10. Julia Louis, Veep
    11. Laura Linney, The Big C
    12. Laura Dern, Enlightened
    —————————–
    13. Kristen Bell, House of Lies
    14. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
    15. Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
    16. Fran Drescher, Happily Divorced 
    17. Jane Levy, Suburgatory
    18. Courteney Cox, Cougar Town

    Comedy Supporting Actor
    1. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
    2. Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
    3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
    4. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
    5. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
    6. Garret Dillahunt, Raising Hope
    —————————–
    7. Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation
    8. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
    9. Supporting Player from The Office (Wilson, Helms or Spader?)
    10. Danny Pudi, Community
    11. Nolan Gould, Modern Family
    12. Jake Johnson, New Girl
    —————————– 
    13. Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory
    14. Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
    15. Chris Pratt, Parks and Recreation
    16. Aziz Ansari, Parks and Recreation
    17. Donald Glover, Community
    18. Adam Pally, Happy Endings

    Comedy Supporting Actress
    1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
    2. Jane Lynch, Glee
    3. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
    4. Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope
    5. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
    6. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
    —————————–
    7. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
    8. Wendie Malick, Hot in Cleveland
    9. Maya Rudolph, Up All Night
    10. Eden Sher, The Middle
    11. Aubrey Plaza, Parks and Recreation
    12. Casey Wilson, Happy Endings
    —————————–
    13. Alison Brie, Community
    14. Busy Phillips, Cougar Town
    15. Rashida Jones, Parks and Recreation
    16. Ariel Winter, Modern Family
    17. Jenna Fischer, The Office
    18. Vanessa Williams, Desperate Housewives

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    Constance
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    #233519

    Added comedy guests and drama supporting actress just for MarkAlexis.

    Aw, thank you for thinking of me T!

     

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    A Person
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    #233520

    Comedy Series:

    1. Modern Family
    2. Parks and Recreation
    3. 30 Rock
    4. The Big Bang Theory
    5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
    6. Louie
    —————–
    7. Raising Hope
    8. Up All Night
    9. Veep
    10. New Girl
    11. 2 Broke Girls
    12. Glee

    Drama Series

    1. Breaking Bad
    2. Mad Men
    3. Homeland
    4. Game of Thrones
    5. The Good Wife
    6. Justified
    —————-
    7. Boardwalk Empire
    8. Dexter
    9. Luck
    10. Boss
    11. House
    12. American Horror Story

    Comedy Lead Actor

    1. Jim Parsons
    2. Alec Baldwin
    3. Louis CK
    4. Larry David
    5. Matt LeBlanc
    6. Will Arnett
    ————————-
    7. Johnny Galecki
    8. Don Cheadle
    9. Lucas Neff
    10. Joel McHale
    11. Rob Lowe
    12. Ed Helms

    Drama Lead Actor

    1. Bryan Cranston
    2. Jon Hamm
    3. Damien Lewis
    4. Timothy Olyphant
    5. Dustin Hoffman
    6. Steve Buscemi
    ———————
    7. Michael C. Hall
    8. Kelsey Grammer
    9. Hugh Laurie
    10. Dylan McDermott
    11. Andrew Lincoln
    12. Jason O’Mara

    Comedy Lead Actress

    1. Amy Poehler
    2. Tina Fey
    3. Martha Plimpton
    4. Zooey Deschanel
    5. Christina Applegate
    6. Kat Dennings
    —————————-
    7. Laura Linney
    8. Edie Falco
    9. Kristen Bell
    10 Melissa McCarthy
    11. Kaley Cuoco
    12. Patricia Heaton

    Drama Lead Actress

    1. Claire Danes
    2. Julianna Margulies
    3. Elisabeth Moss
    4. Glenn Close
    5. Kathy Bates
    6. Mariska Hargitay
    —————————–
    7. Katherine McPhee
    8. Kyra Sedgwick
    9. Connie Britton
    10. Anna Gunn
    11. Mireille Enos
    12. Katey Sagal

    Comedy Supporting Actor

    1. Ty Burrell
    2. Ed O’Neill
    3. Eric Stonestreet
    4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson
    5. Nick Offerman
    6. Garrett Dillahunt
    —————————–
    7. Jon Cryer
    8. Chris Colfer
    9. Adam Scott
    10. Jake Johnson
    11. Neil Patrick Harris
    12. Danny Pudi

    Drama Supporting Actor

    1. Aaron Paul
    2. Peter Dinklage
    3. John Slattery
    4. Giancarlo Esposito
    5. Mandy Pantinkin
    6. Walton Goggins
    ————————–
    7. Alan Cumming
    8. Josh Charles
    9. Nick Nolte
    10. Michael Pitt
    11. Andre Braugher
    12. Stephen Dillane

    Comedy Supporting Actress:

    1. Sofia Vergara
    2. Julie Bowen
    3. Betty White
    4. Jane Krakowski
    5. Maya Rudolph
    6. Jane Lynch
    ———————–
    7. Kristen Wiig
    8. Mayim Bialick
    9. Wendie Malick

    Drama Supporting Actress

    1. Jessica Lange
    2. Christina Hendricks
    3. Archie Panjabi
    4. Rose Byrne
    5. Emilia Clarke
    6. Morena Baccarin
    ————————-
    7. Christine Baranski
    8. Kelly McDonald
    9. Debra Messing
    10. Michelle Forbes
     

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    TV12
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    #233521

    Do you mind if I start this in the Oscar thread?

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