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2016 Emmy Writing&Directing Predictions

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  • Rooney Moore
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    #368012

    Since we can’t predict them on prediction center, you can post your current thoughts about Drama/Comedy/Mini races on here. Lots of Emmy-friendly shows have yet to air their latest seasons but you do not have to specify their episode names just yet.

    Few notes: Downton always submit one episode for writing/directing. Veep did the same thing last year and it worked, though as a reigning champion they might be braver this time around.(This also applies GoT, but their writing team is already too small) Silicon Valley always submits two per category: Premiere and finale. HoC and Orange might step back and submit only one or two after last years shutout as they already have a history of doing so. Soderbergh directs all the episodes of The Knick himself. I believe Homeland has never shortchanged its submissions.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #368014

    As someone who always criticize Academy for handing awards out like candies; these categories are the ones that need to get a raise most. 5 slots for each too small to cover the wide range of quality TV that’s been going on on TV, especially on Drama side. Things take even more tragic turn when one show start to block the same category with 2, 3 or more episodes. Ugh. 

    Writing-Comedy
    -Master of None
    -Silicon Valley
    -Transparent
    -Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
    -Veep

    Directing-Comedy
    -Master of None
    -Silicon Valley
    -Transparent x2
    -Veep 

    Writing-Drama
    -The Americans
    -Better Call Saul
    -Game of Thrones
    -Mr.Robot
    One of these will get 2 noms, but can’t decide which one.

    Directing-Drama
    -Game of Thrones×2
    -Mr.Robot
    -The Knick
    -Vinyl(Boardwalk voters will shift to this one)
     
    This is the branch that tends to check the most familiar name from the list even if it is from a show they watch, so Robot has to only submit its pilot to not get snubbed since it doesn’t have famous directors. Downton wouldn’t have been nominated in 2014 if it weren’t for a tie, so we can probably say that it didn’t make the top 5 in either writing/directing in the last 2 years. I hope it doesn’t come back but it’s in the realm of possibility along with BCS.

    Fargo can get 3 writing noms in Limited Category. 

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    jacob121
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    #368015

    The stranglehold Silicon Valley has on these categories is baffling to me. Especially its perfectly competent but nothing special directing. 

    I think that your picks are pretty spot on but I think its possible that the Americans’ nomination was a one year wonder. The Leftovers may take over the critically beloved but otherwise overlooked writing spot that happens every so often. 

    I also think people on these boards are sleeping a bit on Vinyl. I think it is a strong contender for writing as well as the requisite directing nod.

    I am a HUGE fan of the Knick so I am hoping it can hold on to its directing nod (and it really should be up for writing, acting, and series as well but that’s another thread).

    Mr. Robot is a big question mark to me. USA has never had a big player like this before and just working from memory they seem to submit a ton of episodes per category for their other shows like White Collar, Burn Notice, etc. I hope that their campaigner realizes that Mr. Robot should only submit one in each :/ 

    Fargo should get every single nom in its category as far as I’m concerned.

    Oh, and if a drama series gets two noms it’ll most likely be GOT. 

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #368016

    I mostly agree with you choices here, except a few tweeks here and there

    Comedy Writing –
    1. Veep
    2. Transparent (Mee-Maw)
    3. Master of None (Indians on TV )
    4. SIlicon Valley (Not sure which episode, but one will get in)
    5. Blackish (Hope had phenomenal writing and I have a feeling it will get in)

    Comedy Directing –
    1. Transparent (Kina Hora)
    2. Transparent (Mee -Maw)
    3. Veep 
    4. Master of None (Plan B) 
    5. Silicon Valley (Not sure which episode, but one will get in)

    Drama Writing –
    1. Game of Thrones
    2. Mr. Robot (Pilot) 
    3. Better Caul Saul
    4. The Americans 
    5.  Orange is the new black (With Mad Men not here, two slots get empty. And I have a feelin OITNB was 6th or 7th last year, so It’ll probably get in here, most likely ‘Trust no Bitch’) 

    Drama Directing –
    1. Game of Thrones
    2. Game of Thrones
    3. Game of Thrones (yes, I expect three episodes to get in, this season will be epic)
    4. Mr Robot (Pilot)
    5.  Vinyl (The Boardwalk theory) 

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    mikeboy898
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    #368017

    I really REALLY hope The Leftovers, Vinyl and Mr. Robot get in for writing and directing.

    For Comedy, you know Veep, Silicon Valley and Transparent will get Writing and Directing. I’m hoping Master of None and Broad City sneak in too.

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    Riley
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    #368018

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES:
    Master of None: Aziz Ansari & Alan Yang
    Silicon Valley: Alec Berg
    Silicon Valley: Clay Tarver
    Transparent: Jill Soloway
    Veep: David Mandel & Tony Roche & Georgia Pritchett

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES:
    Master of None: Eric Wareheim
    Silicon Valley: Mike Judge
    Transparent:  Marielle Heller
    Transparent: Jill Soloway
    Veep: Chris Addison

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES:
    Better Call Saul: Peter Gould & Vince Gilligan
    Downton Abbey: Julian Fellowes
    Game of Thrones: David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
    The Good Wife: Robert King & Michelle King
    Mr. Robot: Sam Esmail

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES:
    Downton Abbey: Michael Engler
    Game of Thrones: Jack Bender
    Game of Thrones: Jeremy Podeswa
    Mr. Robot: Niels Arden Oplev
    Vinyl: Martin Scorsese

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
    All the Way: Robert Schenkkan
    American Crime: John Ridley
    American Crime Story: Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
    Fargo: Noah Hawley & Steve Blackman
    Sherlock: Steven Moffat & Mark Gatiss
    Show Me a Hero: William F. Zorzi & David Simon

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
    All the Way: Jay Roach
    American Crime Story: Anthony Hemingway
    American Crime Story: Ryan Murphy
    Confirmation: Rick Famuyiwa
    Fargo: Adam Arkin
    Sherlock: Douglas Mackinnon

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES:
    Inside Amy Schumer: Jessi Klein
    Key & Peele: Ian Roberts & Jay Martel
    The Late Show: Opus Moreschi & Jay Katsir
    Last Week Tonight: Tim Carvell
    Real Time: Billy Martin

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES:
    Inside Amy Schumer: Ryan McFaul
    Key & Peele: Peter Atencio
    The Late Show: Jim Hoskinson
    Saturday Night Live: Don Roy King
    The Tonight Show: Dave Diomedi

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    jacob121
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    #368019

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES:
    Master of None: Aziz Ansari & Alan Yang
    Silicon Valley: Alec Berg
    Silicon Valley: Clay Tarver
    Transparent: Jill Soloway
    Veep: David Mandel & Tony Roche & Georgia Pritchett

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES:
    Master of None: Eric Wareheim
    Silicon Valley: Mike Judge
    Transparent:  Marielle Heller
    Transparent: Jill Soloway
    Veep: Chris Addison

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES:
    Better Call Saul: Peter Gould & Vince Gilligan
    Downton Abbey: Julian Fellowes
    Game of Thrones: David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
    The Good Wife: Robert King & Michelle King
    Mr. Robot: Sam Esmail

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES:
    Downton Abbey: Michael Engler
    Game of Thrones: Jack Bender
    Game of Thrones: Jeremy Podeswa
    Mr. Robot: Niels Arden Oplev
    Vinyl: Martin Scorsese

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
    All the Way: Robert Schenkkan
    American Crime: John Ridley
    American Crime Story: Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
    Fargo: Noah Hawley & Steve Blackman
    Sherlock: Steven Moffat & Mark Gatiss
    Show Me a Hero: William F. Zorzi & David Simon

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
    All the Way: Jay Roach
    American Crime Story: Anthony Hemingway
    American Crime Story: Ryan Murphy
    Confirmation: Rick Famuyiwa
    Fargo: Adam Arkin
    Sherlock: Douglas Mackinnon

    OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES:
    Inside Amy Schumer: Jessi Klein
    Key & Peele: Ian Roberts & Jay Martel
    The Late Show: Opus Moreschi & Jay Katsir
    Last Week Tonight: Tim Carvell
    Real Time: Billy Martin

    OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES:
    Inside Amy Schumer: Ryan McFaul
    Key & Peele: Peter Atencio
    The Late Show: Jim Hoskinson
    Saturday Night Live: Don Roy King
    The Tonight Show: Dave Diomedi

    Some interesting picks! What makes you think Downton makes a resurgance here? I am also toying with the idea more so on the directing side but curious to hear your thoughts.

    And do you think farewell love will propel The Good Wife to get back into writing? 

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    tjd
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    #368020

    The only thing I can say with great confidence is that Martin Scorsese will get a nomination for directing the pilot of Vinyl, as he should.

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    Riley
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    #368021

    What makes you think Downton makes a resurgance here? I am also toying with the idea more so on the directing side but curious to hear your thoughts. And do you think farewell love will propel The Good Wife to get back into writing?

    Downton Abbey, which is ending, seems to be more writer-driven than director-driven, so I would think that it would follow Friday Night Lights and Mad Men as shows that get (back) into writing for their finales.  But it has only missed directing once (not twice like writing) and it just got its first DGA nomination this year.  The Good Wife gets nominated at WGA every year, so I can only imagine how many times it has been sixth at the Emmys.  The finale might be able to push them over.  It helps that it has been nominated there before and is still on the Emmy radar, with four nominations for its poorly-received sixth season.

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    leothescorpio
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    #368022

    In a perfect world J. Michael Straczynski & The Wachowski’s would sweep these categories for their terrific work on Sense8.

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    mikeboy898
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    #368023

    Sense8 was good, but it’s not “sweep the Emmys” good

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    Rooney Moore
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    #368024

    I also thought The Americans was Community’s equivalent in Drama series. Emmy writers branch is a pretty elite group after all, but they also got a WGA nom over uber popular and high profile shows like HoC or Homeland, so it might indicate mainstream support. But it could go either way, yes.
    Yes, The Knick, is a great gem! And deserves better recognition overall. Below the line voters seem to be pretty fond of, too. Never really fan of Soderbergh’s movie work, but this show something special, so gripping and unique.

    As for Downton’s future; Mad Men, Six Feet and The Wire were the only shows in this century that got snubbed on their penultimate season in writing and then came back for the finale. We all know MM was always worshipped by writers and got snubbed due to submitting too many episodes; although I didn’t follow the derby back then I imagine that the other 2 shows finale seasons were much more acclaimed and their exit were probably a bigger deal than Downton Abbey’s. Especially The Wire, a show that industry got caught up on too late.
    Abbey’s situation is probably more similar to Grey’s, Dexter’s or House’s. Writers are pretty snobbish, enjoyed the show for what it is in its prime but didn’t hesitate move on after the format got old. It still found its way into metacritics’ top 20 list for its writing-nominated s3.

    Its perennial series nominations -and the fact that it never missed- strenghts its case however. And I get the logic of ”If it got nominated two years ago, it can come back again” and that Mad Men/Wire/Six Feet argument is simply rubbish because every situation needs to be considered under current circumstances and this doesn’t look like it will be a particularly strong year at the Emmys overall. I just could make a better case for 3 of last years returning nominees+ Mr.Robot+ House of Cards(if it submits 1 ep.) and we don’t even know how Billions(can do better with writers due to its subj.matter) or Vinyl will do with voters. And the history tells us that one of these will get two noms in that category.

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    Riley
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    #368025

    House of Cards seems more likely to fill the Grey’s Anatomy “slot”.  I do not ever see that coming back to the writing and directing categories.  Did Downton Abbey
    really only get writing for its first three seasons?  That makes sense
    counting it out, but it felt like a lot longer.  Alright, I will swap in
    my sixth-place The Americans next time that I do that post (unless the season has bombed by then).  I have The Leftovers ahead of Billions and Vinyl.

    Mr. Robot looked a lot safer in directing before I actually made my predictions.  I could easily see it missing for The Knick or yet another episode of Game of Thrones or even Homeland, which has some bizarre stranglehold at DGA.

    I really want to see shows play the submission game properly, but I doubt that it will happen.  Game of Thrones played it safe by only submitting only one episode for writing their first season and they got nominated, but then they got cocky and expanded too quickly, submitting four for their second season.  Since then, they have been too afraid and kept their submissions to one.  They actually won last year (in the popular-vote system) and their biggest competitor is now inelgible, so there is no way that they will not get a second episode nominated if they submit one.  Three might be a bit of a gamble, but I really want to see them submit two.

    Similarly, Veep was snubbed when they submitted five episodes for each of their first two seasons and have just submitted one episode for each of the last two seasons, which has paid off.  That is great and just like Game of Thrones, it is time to move on.  Veep is coming off of an Emmy writing win and a second WGA series win.  Submit another episode!  It is a weak field.  Dramedies always do worse in their second seasons, so Transparent might be out.  Master of None was not even nominated by the WGA for Best New Series.  Louie is off the air.  And Veep has more support than Silicon Valley.  Another Veep writing nomination is so attainable.

    The limited/movie categories are so stacked, even with the bonus slot.  Fargo needs to be very concerned.  FX generally submits as many episodes as they can for their shows and being a second-season show, Fargo lacks a clear episode to congregate around.  They submitted five episodes for directing last time—the maximum possibleand took two of the six slots for the pilot and the winning blizzard episode.  They only submitted one episode for writing last time—the maximum possibleand got it in, but are they going to submit five this time?

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    aaron
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    #368026

    for drama writing, id expect a game of thrones to be nominated for at least one episode.  the american was able to squeeze in last year, so now that they have their foot in the door i wouldnt be surprise if they got nominated again (if they submit right).  and if better call saul can pull off an emotional punch like it did last year with “five-o” expect it to be nominated again as well.  that leaves two slots open.  I think the x files has a real shot to be nominated for “mulder and scully meet the were-monster” since it was the only episode that got universal acclaim and the writer of the episode also won for an x files episode back in ’96.  i feel like the academy will want to recognize the show in some capacity and this seems like its best bet. another new show with a real shot is mr. robot, but it might have a bit of trouble selecting one episode since the writing really works best when looked at over the whole season, not one particular episode.
    other possiblities could be the downton abbey finale (but its been a few years since its been able to nab a nomination in this catagory), a house of cards episode, “trust no bitch” from orange is the new black, or a homeland episode (i cant remember if the last season had any stand out episodes tho).  another possibility is that this category is sometimes used to recognize “critical darling” shows that dont get recognition anywhere else (ie the americans, friday night lights, battlestar galactica, the wire) so I would be too surprised if the leftovers was nominated for its “international assassin” episode

    rankings i would say:
    1. the x-files (mulder and scully meet the were-monster)
    2. better call saul
    3. game of thrones
    4. the americans
    5. mr robot (pilot)

    6. house of cards
    7. the leftovers (international assassin)
    8. downton abbey (finale)
    9. orange is the new black (trust no bitch)
    10. homeland

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    leothescorpio
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    #368027

    Sense8 was good, but it’s not “sweep the Emmys” good

    I clearly meant; in a perfect world Sense8 would sweep the writing & directing categories not the Emmys as a whole. Again – In a perfect world. :/

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