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2017 Emmy Nominee Predictions (Last Minute Panic) & Discussions

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  • Chris Beachum
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1202141875

    The original thread from February was way over the 500 count.

    Discuss the final week of Emmy nominee predictions here.

    Which categories and slots are causing the most confusion and panic for you?

    Anonymous
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    #1202141899

    I am most confused about the supporting and guest categories, especially on the actress side.

    For supporting drama actress I have Newton, MB Brown, and Ryder. I don’t think anybody doesn’t think they’re getting in. Those last three spots are tricky. I’m not predicting Metz because I am predicting it will under perform. She is definitely a possibility but for now I don’t have her making it. I have Paula Malcomson in my fourth spot. I am telling all of y’all right now that IF she gets in she WILL win. Ray Donovan’s nominations and upward trajectory cause me to believe the voters are watching the show. She has THE baitiest role of the season and its her best yet. Cancer, check. Kills somebody, check. Loud accent, check. concerned mother, check. Shes’s an actress that has been working forever. We have seen last year that this new system loves rewarding working actors. In my fifth spot I have Carly Chaikin. Although its second season is largely regarded as a slump, it went way up in guild support. This causes me to believe that the voters are still watching the show. This means that they most likely saw the episode that was all about her. She was fantastic in that episode and was a borderline lead this season. In my last slot I have Kate Walsh. 13 Reasons Why was huge. I find it hard to believe it’ll be completely snubbed. I am predicting it for Walsh and directing. She is a well known respected actress that is overdue. She is another possible spoiler if she gets in s the new system loves rewarding overdue performers. I am consistent in my first three, however, I am not about those last three. I am trying to be bold, and I think they all are possibilities, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I only got three right in this category.

    Supporting actress is a comedy series is wide open. Will they go back to Bowed and Bialik? Will they give nominations to actresses on shows they like, that have so far been ignored like Jennifer Lewis, Zazzie Beets, Sarah Sutherland, Kathryn Hahn? Maybe we get a farewell hug for Allison Williams who is riding HIGH on her buzz for Get Out. I currently have Chlumsky, McKinnon, Light, Hahn, Lewis, and Moreno. I am not certain about any of those except McKinnon. I have Kathryn Hahn because she is a season standout and past nominations for Melora Hardin and Gabby Hoffman cause me to believe the actors watch the show, however, Transparent was dropped for SAG ensemble, so did the actors stop watching? That’s so puzzling to me. I am considering replacing her with Allison Williams who had a standout role on a standout season of Girls and has a ton of buzz for Get Out that might even accumulate to love on the movie awards circuit later this fall. I would not be surprised at all if McKinnon was the only actress I correctly predicted.

    The limited supporting actress category is just as troubling. The category is just SO crowded. I have Regina King in first, even though I have a gut feeling she might be Aduba’d. The show was cancelled, it didn’t do great at guilds, and the ratings were not great. That is all so depressing because American Crime should be owning this category with Taylor, Ten, King, Bizet, and King. I have Kathy Bates in second, because she’s Kathy Bates. She had a standout season but do the voters watch the show anymore? I don’t think so. Which is even more sad because Adina Porter should be winning. But if the voters don;t watch the show will they continue to name check her in such a crowded year? I don’t know.  I have Mary Elizabeth Winstead in third. She was a borderline lead and had a lot of meat to chew. The voters tend to always vote for Fargo actors who aren’t subtle, so she should be safe. I have Judy Davis in fourth. She’s Judy Davis, but the category is stacked. She had a limited role and the show might be too campy for voters. I have Laura Dern and Shaliene Woodley in fifth in sixth but after writing all olf this about the last contenders, I am moving them to first and second now. Woodley might even be more safe than Dern because she was a border line lead. But the show is only growing in momentum. it was a huge hit with audiences and critics and has big enough names for the voters to watch. They are definitely safe. Outside of those 2, I could easily see me bombing this category.

    Guest is challenging also because its so weak. I have Alexis Bledel in first. I am very hesitant about that though. First I want to take a moment and mention of funny it would be if she was nominated and won BEFORE Lauren Graham. Bwahahaha. But she reminds me a lot of B.D. Wong. Standout guest on hot new show that was considered the front runner and then snubbed. But her role is much bigger so that can help. I have Shannon Purser in second. She became huge and the show is huge.She is Stranger Things’ only guest contender and I’m betting hard on that show. I have Laverne Cox in third. She had  a lot to do this season and the category is weak as hell. I am hoping that the OITNB fan base shows up in such a weak category. I have Nina Hoss is fourth. She had a great season and in such a weak category the group that always name checks Homeland in best drama series might show up here.  In fifth I have Carrie Preston but I am not confident in The Good Fight AT ALL. In last place I have Gloria Reuben. The category is weak, she is a name and Mr. Robot did good at the guilds. She feels right but I am not confident About her whatsoever. I really want to put Cloris Leachman in my predictions but she has the Starz curse working against her and I don’t know who I’d replace her with. Probably either Reuben or Hoss. This is another category where I wouldn’t be shocked if I got none of them right.

    I am also having trouble with limited supporting actor, the last spot in mini series (I have  feeling American Crime will fall out), and comedy guest actress (I want to add Kirsten Wiig but who do I take out?)

    Also, I really feel like we could have a huge shakeup in the comedy race this year. Black-ish, Atlanta, Veep and Silicon Valley are safe. Modern Family has an eternal name check and a PGA nomination so it should be safe. But UKS, Transparent, and Master of None have no major support. I am not confident in them at all. People say “but Transparent and Master on none had great seasons so they’ll be safe”, well they could have the best seasons ever and it won’t madder if the industry doesn’t watch them. I could easily see one or more of them falling out. Shameless could have a HIMYM moment, Catastrophe could come in off of last years writing nomination and Carrie Fisher, and TBBT maintained SAG and is still popular so I wouldn’t count it out.

    Teridax
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    #1202141918

    I am most confused about the supporting and guest categories, especially on the actress side.

    For supporting drama actress I have Newton, MB Brown, and Ryder. I don’t think anybody doesn’t think they’re getting in. Those last three spots are tricky. I’m not predicting Metz because I am predicting it will over perform. She is definitely a possibility but for now I don’t have her making it. I have Paula Malcomson in my fourth spot. I am telling all of y’all right now that IF she gets in she WILL win. Ray Donovan’s nominations and upward trajectory cause me to believe the voters are watching the show. She has THE baitiest role of the season and its her best yet. Cancer, check. Kills somebody, check. Loud accent, check. concerned mother, check. Shes’s an actress that has been working forever. We have seen last year that this new system loves rewarding working actors. In my fifth spot I have Carly Chaikin. Although its second season is largely regarded as a slump, it went way up in guild support. This causes me to believe that the voters are still watching the show. This means that they most likely saw the episode that was all about her. She was fantastic in that episode and was a borderline lead this season. In my last slot I have Kate Walsh. 13 Reasons Why was huge. I find it hard to believe it’ll be completely snubbed. I am predicting it for Walsh and directing. She is a well known respected actress that is overdue. She is another possible spoiler if she gets in s the new system loves rewarding overdue performers. I am consistent in my first three, however, I am not about those last three. I am trying to be bold, and I think they all are possibilities, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I only got three right in this category.

    Supporting actress is a comedy series is wide open. Will they go back to Bowed and Bialik? Will they give nominations to actresses on shows they like, that have so far been ignored like Jennifer Lewis, Zazzie Beets, Sarah Sutherland, Kathryn Hahn? Maybe we get a farewell hug for Allison Williams who is riding HIGH on her buzz for Get Out. I currently have Chlumsky, McKinnon, Light, Hahn, Lewis, and Moreno. I am not certain about any of those except McKinnon. I have Kathryn Hahn because she is a season standout and past nominations for Melora Hardin and Gabby Hoffman cause me to believe the actors watch the show, however, Transparent was dropped for SAG ensemble, so did the actors stop watching? That’s so puzzling to me. I am considering replacing her with Allison Williams who had a standout role on a standout season of Girls and has a ton of buzz for Get Out that might even accumulate to love on the movie awards circuit later this fall. I would not be surprised at all if McKinnon was the only actress I correctly predicted.

    The limited supporting actress category is just as troubling. The category is just SO crowded. I have Regina King in first, even though I have a gut feeling she might be Aduba’d. The show was cancelled, it didn’t do great at guilds, and the ratings were not great. That is all so depressing because American Crime should be owning this category with Taylor, Ten, King, Bizet, and King. I have Kathy Bates in second, because she’s Kathy Bates. She had a standout season but do the voters watch the show anymore? I don’t think so. Which is even more sad because Adina Porter should be winning. But if the voters don;t watch the show will they continue to name check her in such a crowded year? I don’t know. I have Mary Elizabeth Winstead in third. She was a borderline lead and had a lot of meat to chew. The voters tend to always vote for Fargo actors who aren’t subtle, so she should be safe. I have Judy Davis in fourth. She’s Judy Davis, but the category is stacked. She had a limited role and the show might be too campy for voters. I have Laura Dern and Shaliene Woodley in fifth in sixth but after writing all olf this about the last contenders, I am moving them to first and second now. Woodley might even be more safe than Dern because she was a border line lead. But the show is only growing in momentum. it was a huge hit with audiences and critics and has big enough names for the voters to watch. They are definitely safe. Outside of those 2, I could easily see me bombing this category.

    Guest is challenging also because its so weak. I have Alexis Bledel in first. I am very hesitant about that though. First I want to take a moment and mention of funny it would be if she was nominated and won BEFORE Lauren Graham. Bwahahaha. But she reminds me a lot of B.D. Wong. Standout guest on hot new show that was considered the front runner and then snubbed. But her role is much bigger so that can help. I have Shannon Purser in second. She became huge and the show is huge.She is Stranger Things’ only guest contender and I’m betting hard on that show. I have Laverne Cox in third. She had a lot to do this season and the category is weak as hell. I am hoping that the OITNB fan base shows up in such a weak category. I have Nina Hoss is fourth. She had a great season and in such a weak category the group that always name checks Homeland in best drama series might show up here. In fifth I have Carrie Preston but I am not confident in The Good Fight AT ALL. In last place I have Gloria Reuben. The category is weak, she is a name and Mr. Robot did good at the guilds. She feels right but I am not confident About her whatsoever. I really want to put Cloris Leachman in my predictions but she has the Starz curse working against her and I don’t know who I’d replace her with. Probably either Reuben or Hoss. This is another category where I wouldn’t be shocked if I got none of them right.

    I am also having trouble with limited supporting actor, the last spot in mini series (I have feeling American Crime will fall out), and comedy guest actress (I want to add Kirsten Wiig but who do I take out?)

    Also, I really feel like we could have a huge shakeup in the comedy race this year. Black-ish, Atlanta, Veep and Silicon Valley are safe. Modern Family has an eternal name check and a PGA nomination so it should be safe. But UKS, Transparent, and Master of None have no major support. I am not confident in them at all. People say “but Transparent and Master on none had great seasons so they’ll be safe”, well they could have the best seasons ever and it won’t madder if the industry doesn’t watch them. I could easily see one or more of them falling out. Shameless could have a HIMYM moment, Catastrophe could come in off of last years writing nomination and Carrie Fisher, and TBBT maintained SAG and is still popular so I wouldn’t count it out.

    Dude… Chrissy Metz could WIN, everybody loves her. She is an easy lock for a nomination at the very least.

    I really like your Drama Guest actress predictions, but take out Gloria Reuben, she is liked by the Emmys, but Cloris Leachman is LOVED by the Emmys, and I see her as a very strong dark horse on name alone. As Daniel Montgomery pointed out, even if the voters are not watching the show, they will check her name off because they love her so much. I know you liked Mr. Robot Season 2, but the tide has turned against that show, and I would not be surprised if it got shut out completely by the Emmys. Even Rami Malek isn’t safe, with his SAG nod an obvious I.O.U. for the previous year’s snub. You might be right with Nina Hoss, but I think Homeland has just lost so much buzz and momentum, that I have a hard time seeing her make the final 6, even with unlimited options to choose from. Also, PLENTLY of subtle Fargo performances have made the cut, like Martin Freeman of Bokeem Woodbine or Kristen Dunst, but the Emmys are careful to only recognize the show’s performances that are actually deserving of recogntion. Patrick Wilson was bland, and that is why he was snubbed. Rachel Keller was annoying and uninteresting, and that is why she was snubbed. Last year, the Emmys nominated EXACTLY who had the interesting characters to play. Wilson was too thinly written to make the cut with the Emmys, and I keep suspecting the same might happen to Carrie Coon.

    jacob121
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    #1202141936

    Mr. Robot did good at the guilds.

    WELL.

    I’ve really been trying to avoid this but you’ve been consistent and I’m a little drunk and I can’t stand it any longer.

    (I admire your championing of Mr. Robot season 2).

    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202142223

    In my fifth spot I have Carly Chaikin. Although its second season is largely regarded as a slump, it went way up in guild support. This causes me to believe that the voters are still watching the show. This means that they most likely saw the episode that was all about her. She was fantastic in that episode and was a borderline lead this season.

    I honestly don’t see how Chaikin gets in. The Academy didn’t really love Mr. Robot last year (they snubbed Slater, Wong and the show in Directing), and with a more divisive and polarizing season, I just don’t see how the show goes up in acting nominations.

    I have Paula Malcomson in my fourth spot. I am telling all of y’all right now that IF she gets in she WILL win. Ray Donovan’s nominations and upward trajectory cause me to believe the voters are watching the show. She has THE baitiest role of the season and its her best yet. Cancer, check. Kills somebody, check. Loud accent, check. concerned mother, check. Shes’s an actress that has been working forever. We have seen last year that this new system loves rewarding working actors

    I think you’re onto something with Paula, it’s a smart prediction to make, but I’m just not going to take that risk (I’m already predicting Wiley to get in for Orange). But stick to her Hunter, I have a gut feeling she will sneak in.

    I have Kathryn Hahn because she is a season standout and past nominations for Melora Hardin and Gabby Hoffman cause me to believe the actors watch the show, however, Transparent was dropped for SAG ensemble, so did the actors stop watching? That’s so puzzling to me. I am considering replacing her with Allison Williams who had a standout role on a standout season of Girls and has a ton of buzz

    I think Katheryn Hahn is in. She was the standout this season (along with Light and to a lesser extent Lysette) and like you said, the acting branch at the Emmys loves AND watches Transparent. I took out Allison Williams because Girls (and she in particular) had a lot of buzz last year as well, but it didn’t translate to anything. In fact, even the Scolari shocker only happened because McNicol was disqualified. So barring a writing nomination, and maybe one of Rhys/Ahmed/Scolari in Guest Actor, I don’t see Girls doing that well.

    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202142224

    I have Regina King in first, even though I have a gut feeling she might be Aduba’d. The show was cancelled, it didn’t do great at guilds, and the ratings were not great. That is all so depressing because American Crime should be owning this category with Taylor, Ten, King, Bizet, and King. I have Kathy Bates in second, because she’s Kathy Bates. She had a standout season but do the voters watch the show anymore? I don’t think so. Which is even more sad because Adina Porter should be winning. But if the voters don;t watch the show will they continue to name check her in such a crowded year? I don’t know.  I have Mary Elizabeth Winstead in third. She was a borderline lead and had a lot of meat to chew. The voters tend to always vote for Fargo actors who aren’t subtle, so she should be safe. I have Judy Davis in fourth. She’s Judy Davis, but the category is stacked. She had a limited role and the show might be too campy for voters. I have Laura Dern and Shaliene Woodley in fifth in sixth but after writing all olf this about the last contenders, I am moving them to first and second now.

    I have the same six as you and for the same reasons, except for Regina King. I am 100% certain she is getting Aduba’d. Instead of her I have Jeannie Berlin and I’m stunned to see her so low in the prediction center. The Night Of will do really well and Berlin should easily get in.

    Andrew Carden
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    #1202142232

    ^I sure hope you’re right, though my gut says, if anything, The Night Of might wind up underperforming a bit on Emmy nominations morning. I actually think Pfeiffer probably gets in here. And perhaps Burstyn too.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: 20 Years of Streep (2013) – August: Osage County

    Marco B.
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    #1202142233

    I just wanted to say (in response of previous comments in the other topic) that Niecy Nash does absolutely nothing in her show. She might be liked like Margo Martindale, but Masters of Sex is not The Americans.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  Marco B..
    sofan
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    #1202142354

    My main problem is, not being able to add up to 8 names in predictions. With the change in the voting, I am fairly certain most categories will have 7/8 nominees, especially the acting races in Limited/TV movie categories.

    And since I can’t add those names I found my solution to be predicting people with higher odds to get the most points.

    For example, in Lead Actress I have the four women from BLL and Feud, and Huffman. Then since I can’t add 3 more I look at their odds – Coon 9/1, Howard 33/1, Williams 100/1 – so I went with Williams there.

    The Supporting Actress category – which is indeed very crowded- is even more confusing. Dern and Bates are not in my predictions solely because she has lower odds and I expect King and Paulson to be dropped. Then I obviously have the winner of the category in addition to Zeta-Jones and Hoffman from her show. Then I have Winstead, Pfeiffer, and Woodley as the rest of my 6 nominees. I contemplated having Diane Keaton, Ellen Burstyn, Viola Davis, Helen Hunt, Zoe Kravitz and Alison Wright but the category is incredibly crowded. I wouldn’t even be surprised if in the end we only had Feud and BLL nominees.

    For Supporting actor I have Skarsgard and Elba – 80/1 and 100/1 respectively- as point-booster nominees. Adam Scott may surprise here but I am not predicting him just yet, same with Toby Jones. I don’t see Freeman getting in but Azaria is not in my predictions because of how low his odds are.

    I am very excited to see how the new voting will change the nominees. These categories and guest categories are the ones I’ll be looking for ties and shocking nominees

    pulp50
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    #1202142470

    I just wanted to say (in response of previous comments in the other topic) that Niecy Nash does absolutely nothing in her show. She might be liked like Margo Martindale, but Masters of Sex is not The Americans.

    Even though I obviously agree with you that Nash won’t be nominated, Martindale was on screen for like 60 seconds the two years she won, so some people really can do basically nothing nd still win if their loved enough. I just don’t think we can call Nash as loved as Martindale or others when there’s literally no evidence of it.

    pulp50
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    #1202142474

    Regina King getting snubbed would be tragic, it was easily her best season on the show, she doesn’t deserve that shit.

    Miles Allen
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    #1202142539

    The categories I’m having trouble with:
    Best Actress in a Comedy
    Best Actor in a Drama
    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama
    Best Actress in a Miniseries/Movie
    Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/Movie

    Best Actress in a Comedy: I have 4 locks in this category: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tracee Ellis Ross, Ellie Kemper, and Lily Tomlin. A lot of people are predicting Issa Rae but I have her being snubbed and this is why: Many people were predicting Issa Rae to win the Golden Globe, which instead went to Tracee Ellis Ross. Before this year, actresses from first year shows airing on the CW had won in this category (Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin & Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) The CW has never really had shows that do well at award shows. If Issa Rae couldn’t win the Golden Globes when her show airs on HBO I’m having trouble believing that she will make it in at the Emmys. I know I probably shouldn’t be taking the Golden Globe seriously but I am. A lot of people were predicting Rachel Bloom last year and Gina Rodriguez the year before so I’m cautious to put Issa Rae in. I’m also cautious about predicting Allison Janney because the lead jump is risky but I believe the name check and the fact that shes won before for this role with put her in. For my 6th spot, I am predicting Jane Fonda to finally make it in for Grace and Frankie. She and Lily Tomlin were nominated for the first time for this show at the SAG awards this year. That combined with Fonda’s Hollywood status and the fact that Lily Tomlin keeps getting nominated leads me to predict her, although I might switch to Minnie Driver or Phoebe Waller-Bridge.

    Best Actor in a Drama: First of all, I hate This is Us and so I’m biased but I don’t have it making it in to Series, Actor, Supporting Actor or Supporting Actress. I just can’t fathom anyone actually enjoying this show so I don’t think that it will perform at the Emmys in the way that people think it will. I have Bob Odenkirk, Matthew Rhys and Kevin Spacey making it in as locks. I’m a little cautious about predicting Rami Malek because the buzz for Mr. Robot is gone even though he won last year but I am predicting him anyway. I think that Kyle Chandler and Liev Shrieber will be dropped (and Jon Voight in supporting, for that matter) I’m also predicting Anthony Hopkins beacuse I think Westworld will do really well and I mean, he’s Anthony Hopkins. In my 6th spot, I have Justin Theroux. It’s more wishful thinking than anything but I think this is the year that The Leftovers breaks through. I think this is the category that will hurt my prediction score more than anything else.

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama: I have Newton, Brown, and Ryder in as locks (even though I think that Ryder should be in lead but whatever) I have Margo Martindale as my 4th pick just because she’s so beloved by the Academy and she’s won 2 years in a row, even when Rhys and Russell or the show wasn’t nominated. I am expecting Orange is the New Black to make a big comeback for its best season yet but I don’t know who to nominate from it. Uzo Aduba was won in this category before and had a very strong second half of the season. Samira Wiley’s character was killed off and she was in The Handmaid’s Tale. Danielle Brooks has two really strong tapes in this season in the last two episodes and was the MVP in Season 5. I’m playing it safe and predicting Uzo Aduba but I could see myself switching to Samira Wiley. For my 6th spot I have Vera Farmiga although I really want to be bold and predict Aubrey Plaza. Farmiga has lots of industry goodwill and its her last season and shes been nominated before but I’m not sure. I’m starting to think that maybe Ann Dowd could sneak in because The Handmaid’s Tale has got a lot of buzz and she also has The Leftovers.

    Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: The Big Little ladies and The Feud ladies are locks. I really want to predict Carrie Coon because the Emmys love Fargo but she didn’t really do anything all season and Patrick Wilson got snubbed. I’m predicting her anyway but I’m cautious. I also don’t think that Oprah will get nominated beacuse she’s not really known as an actress and her movie was not that great. I have Felicity Huffman getting snubbed because I think American Crime has come and gone and nobody watches it. For my 6th spot I’m predicting Bryce Dallas Howard beacuse her episode is one of the most popular of Black Mirror and she was nominated at SAG and I think that Black Mirror will breakthrough. I’ll probably change to Oprah later on but right now I’m sticking with BDH.

    Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie: I have Dern and Davis as locks. Shailene Woodley and MEW are both young and have never been nominataed before. I think that their shows popularity and the fact that they both gave great performances will get them in comfortably. Before I saw The Wizard of Lies I had Michelle Pfeiffer winning, but now it seems like she is going to have to get in with name recognition alone. I have her making it in though. I feel like I shouldn’t have Regina King getting snubbed because she has won twice in upsets but I feel like the American Crime train has left the station and I have Felicity Huffman getting snubbed. Still, the 2 wins thing makes me want to keep her in so I have her in 6th. Kathy Bates and Sarah Paulson are waiting in the wings if I ever decide to snub Regina King.

    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202142541

    Regina King getting snubbed would be tragic, it was easily her best season on the show, she doesn’t deserve that shit.

    Deserves got nothing to do with it. But I do think we’ll sadly see American Crime barely get any nominations. It sucks, but its cancellation really make things grim for them.

    Kevin
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    #1202142544

    Regina King getting snubbed would be tragic, it was easily her best season on the show, she doesn’t deserve that shit.

    I agree, she’s magnetic. Every time she’s on screen, I find myself just wanting to look at her. Submitting the last episode of the season could actually net her another win imo. I don’t think she’s being snubbed, especially seeing as she’s won two years in a row, both times with less material and with subtle, subtle performances.

    lullopatullo
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    #1202142592

    I honestly don’t know if this is a dumb question but, being new here, I still haven’t quite figured out whether it’s wiser to list my predicted nominees based on their likelihood of winning or on their likelihood of being nominated.

    Maybe it varies on a person’s preference? In case, how do you do it?

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