22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards Ceremony (TV)

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  • Riley
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    #367227

    Bill Murray (A Very Murray Christmas) is the kind of actor that the
    Screen Actors Guild loves to award on the television side.  He is a household name, among the oldest of
    the men nominated for Best Movie/Mini Actor this year and he has enjoyed a long
    film career that is still thriving today, demonstrated by him receiving his
    fifth Golden Globe nomination for film work last year (St. Vincent), thirty years after his first (Ghost
    Busters
    ).  With 14/1 odds, he ranks third
    in Gold Derby’s aggregate predictions.

    Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall) is favored to win at 2/1 odds.  He has been a nomination mainstay for the
    role, but consistently comes up short for the win, regardless of the
    competition, having lost the Emmy to Richard Jenkins (Olive Kitteridge), then
    the Golden Globe to Oscar Isaac (Show Me a Hero), then Critics’ Choice to Idris
    Elba (Luther).  Airing in the spring may
    have helped Wolf Hall for Emmy voting, as it scored nine nominations, but it
    has been largely ignored by the guilds months later, having only been nominated
    for its art direction and casting outside of the recognition for Rylance here.

    By contrast, A Very Murray Christmas has fared surprisingly well with
    the industry guilds.  It is the only
    nominee in the Movie/Mini category at the Producers Guild Awards that is not an
    anthology series — it faces American Crime, American Horror Story, Fargo and True
    Detective
    — and it was nominated over high-profile traditional
    movies/miniseries from HBO in Bessie and Show Me a Hero.  A Very Murray Christmas is also nominated for
    a Directors Guild Award and Bill Murray is the first ever in the SAG Movie/Mini
    Actor category nominated for playing himself. 
    Perhaps visibility is helping this Netflix Original that constantly pops
    up as suggested viewing on the widely-used streaming service.

    Critics prefer Wolf Hall to A Very Murray Christmas (68 versus 86 on Metacritic),
    but that did not help Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) for 2013 SAG Best
    Movie/Mini Actress.  A previous SAG
    television nominee for Mad Men, Moss was favored to win by Gold Derby, having
    earned both a Golden Globe and a Critics’ Choice Award for her performance.  She was nominated against four past Oscar
    nominees/winners, making her the apple in the bag of oranges that often
    prevails with help from vote-splitting.  But
    she lost to Helen Mirren (Phil Spector) for a performance that had not even
    been nominated by Critics’ Choice and in a tepidly-received program (60 on
    Metactitic versus 87 for Top of the Lake). 
    What Mirren had going for her was being the oldest nominee and the one
    with the most active prestige film career, having been nominated by SAG the
    year prior (Hitchcock).

    In fourth is Ben Kingsley (Tut) with 20/1 odds, which might be a bit
    low, considering that he is perhaps the most esteemed nominee; he is the oldest
    of the group, the only one with multiple Oscar nominations and also the only
    one to have won an Oscar (Gandhi, 1982). 
    However, it has been twelve years since he was last nominated for a
    major film award (House of Sand and Fog) and nine since he was last nominated for
    a major television award (Mrs. Harris).  Bill Murray won an Emmy and Critics’ Choice just last year (Olive Kitteridge).

    Consider the race in this category four years ago when Paul Giamatti (Too
    Big to Fail
    ) defeated three older Oscar nominees, as well as the performance
    that had bested him at the Emmys in the supporting category: Guy Pearce (Mildred
    Pierce
    ).  Timing was the one advantage
    that Giamatti had over his esteemed competitors.  He was the only one that had been individually
    nominated for a major Hollywood award in the decade prior, having actually won
    SAG Awards for both film (Cinderella Man) and television (John Adams).

    Idris Elba has 12/5 odds to rank second on Gold Derby, but his
    nomination just might be indicative of a shallow field this year.  The Emmys and Globes are yet to overlook him,
    but this is only his first SAG nomination in four seasons of his show.  Ray Liotta (Texas Rising) rounds out the
    category with 40/1 odds for a supporting performance that was passed over by
    the Emmys.  He is the only nominee here
    who has never been nominated on the film side of SAG.

    Reply
    Rooney Moore
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    #367229

    The only full argument I could say against this article is that Mark Rylance is a fresh Oscar nominee and you’ve been hearing his name everywhere in these past few months.(He didn’t have that privilege when he’s up for an Emmy earlier last year.)
    And Bill Murray might be a veteran, but as we all know, he’s not beloved. I had expected him to score a nom. for Olive Kitteridge last year in a very easy category on SAG but he couldn’t. Plus he’d be such a weird winner, even for SAG. A win for a christmas special, for basically playing himself? This category loves them some old veterans but most of their projects have had checked at least one of these boxes in order to win: Acclaimed; Baity or being on HBO.
    But you have a good point about the whole thing that Mini/Movie categories at SAG are like Lifetime Achievement awards more than anything else and who says every union member care enough to vote on all TV categories? Glenn Close couldn’t beat another name-check Jessica Lange on TV category in 2012 when she’s also an Oscar nominee that year.
    But if we’re only going by name recognition why not Ben Kingsley? He always presents something on award shows and is more respected.
    This is the only category that I could see all 5 of them upsetting, but all of them have more disadvantages than advantages.

    And now that we have a special thread devoted to SAG-TV; people really should start predicting OITNB on Comedy ensemble! It’s unbelievable that it’s still at #2 place on prediction center when it’s one of the safest bets of the night. The deal has been sealed when it got nominated for Drama series at the Emmys. All of the other comedy series would have been snubbed there without a doubt, including the winner Veep. I know GD have been passionate supporters of Veep, but come on.

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    Riley
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    #367230

    Bill Murray is so beloved.  Missing last year was weird, but competition was fierce then.  I do wonder if playing himself will be a significant enough barrier though.  I played that point as a plus in the article because of my agenda, heh heh.

    I feel like Ben Kingsley is kind of a joke these days.  Like Eric Roberts and Nicolas Cage, he takes any paycheque that he can get, but comes off as perhaps more of a douche because he still takes himself so seriously for his past acclaimed work.  He will get another Oscar nomination one of these days though, unlike those two.

    Mark Rylance is more known than he was a few months ago and is the sensible choice here, but neither of us even has him winning on the film side.  Idris Elba is also nominated on both sides, is more of a populist pick and might benefit from white guilt.

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    Joseph
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    #367231

    I’m sorry, but I don’t think Bill Murray is winning. I have him in third, mainly because Ben Kingsley and Ray Liotta, while acting legends, are forgettable in their shows. The problem with the Murray logic is that he doesn’t do much acting in A Very Murray Christmas. It’s a sort-of fine variety special, but it relies to heavily on musical numbers rather than acting. A Very Murray Christmas is considerably shorter than the rest nominated here, clocking in at just under an hour, which is very short, especially compared with Wolf Hall that is around 6 hours long, therefore there is less time for Murray to shine and, even then, he is overshadowed quite a bit, especially by Maya Rudolph and George Clooney. I think it’s between Mark Rylance and Idris Elba, whose performances are also backed up by there very good film work in Bridge of Spies and Beasts of No Nation, respectively. I’m giving the edge to Rylance because he really is an ‘actor’s actor’, and he shows his full range throughout Wolf Hall. However, that being said, he couldn’t win at the Globes after Wolf Hall took home Best Limited Series. It’s a weak category, but Rylance is the best bet.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #367232

    ^But, maybe, maybe… we’re giving SAG voters too much credit for voting things they have seen.

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    Joseph
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    #367233

    ^But, maybe, maybe… we’re giving SAG voters too much credit for voting things they have seen.

    I guess so, it doesn’t take much effort to watch A Very Murray Christmas, with its light and fluffy tone and all, and if they see Bill Murray on the ballot, they might just vote for him anyway as he is so likable. With Wolf Hall, on the other hand, it is a bit of a slog and not exactly thrilling. But you need to give the voters the benefit of the doubt, and think more about the acting styles used. Rylance is the master of his craft, and is a very prestigious actor, while Murray just looks like he is having fun, playing himself opposite a whole bunch of celebrities.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #367234

    If Bill Murray couldn’t prevail at SAG for “Lost in Translation,” losing to Johnny Depp of all people, he isn’t winning for a lukewarm Netflix special. I suspect Elba takes this one, with Rylance a close second.

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    eastwest
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    #367235

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
    Game of Thrones 

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
    Transparent


    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series


    Jon Hamm – Mad Men

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

    Viola Davis – How To Get Away With Murder

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

    Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

    Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

    Mark Rylance – Wolf Hall


    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries


    Queen Latifah – Bessie

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
    Game of Thrones

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    Rooney Moore
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    #367236

    Will Win: Uzo Aduba 
    Could Win: JLD 
    Should Win: Ellie Kemper 
    Shoulda Been Here: Constance Wu 

    Will Win:Jeffrey Tambor 
    Could Win: N/A 
    Should Win: Tambor. But this should be his first and last award. 
    Shoulda Been Here: Will Forte 

    Will Win: OITNB 
    Could Win: Veep(just because y’all say so. I actually could find more reason for MF) 
    Should Win: Transparent. But I’m fine with OITNB winning. I just don’t like repeat wins. And please someone who’s name not Uzo make the speech this time.
    Shoulda Been Here: Shameless 

    Will Win: Mark Rylance. But this article really puts me in a hard position.
    Could Win: Anyone. 
    Should Win: Mark Rylance 
    Shoulda Been Here: Oscar Isaac 

    Will Win: Q Latifah 
    Could Win: Nicole Kidman 
    Should Win: Q Latifah 
    Shoulda Been Here: Claire Foy

    Will Win: Kevin Spacey 
    Could Win: Jon Hamm 
    Should Win: Rami Malek 
    Shoulda Been Here: Aden Young

    Will Win: Viola Davis 
    Could Win: Robin Wright 
    Should Win: A big fat pass. 
    Shoulda Been Here: Q Lena 

    Will Win: GoT(can change in any minute)
    Could Win: Downton 
    Should Win: GoT  
    Shoulda Been Here: The Americans

    The problem with my predictions is that I predict too many repeat wins(4) from previous year, even for the standards of SAG. But last year there were none. So they are either becoming wiser or there bound to be more this time.

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    Riley
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    #367237

    Although the Screen Actors Guild Awards are an excellent precursor for
    the Oscars, they are a poor one for the Emmys, largely because SAG uses its
    television awards for little more than to recognize lifetime achievement.  Because SAG is an important stepping stone to
    the Oscars, film studios hold events for voters and mail them DVDs, but the television
    studios make little effort.  Even if they
    did, it would be unlikely that it would translate to success at the Emmys,
    given that they are eight months later and use a different eligibility period.  It is hard to say whether campaigning would
    even bear fruit at SAG—do voters have time to view seasons of television in
    addition to the on-average twenty nominated films?

    SAG is such a large and eclectic group—160,000 members ranging from movie
    stars to small-town weathermen—and television viewing has become so fractured
    with the rise of cable and streaming services that it is questionable how much
    television the average SAG voter watches. 
    By comparison, the entire Television Academy—not just the acting branch—numbers
    20,000.

    As such, SAG often resorts to awarding the most respected and
    recognizable name nominated with little regard to the specific performance
    attached to the nomination.  Five of the
    six winners last year in the television individual performance categories were
    past Oscar winners or nominees: Viola Davis, William H. Macy, Frances McDormand, Mark Ruffalo and Kevin
    Spacey.  The only category that did not
    award an Oscar winner or nominee was the one in which none were nominated; all
    five best comedy actress nominees were known primarily for their careers in
    television.

    The Emmys get flak for awarding the same performances repeatedly, but at
    least they only awarded Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) twice.  While the Emmys awarded television stars Ricky
    Gervais (Extras), Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) and Jon Cryer (Two and a
    Half Men
    ), SAG awarded Baldwin seven consecutive years, during which time
    Baldwin was the only Oscar nominee among the best comedy actor nominees at SAG.  Although not the only nominee known for a
    film career, Baldwin was variably the oldest nominee in the category and also
    distinguished himself by maintaining a prestigious film career while appearing
    weekly on television, earning nominations from BAFTA (It’s Complicated, 2009)
    and in SAG’s film cast category (The Departed, 2006).

    There are endless examples of a bias at SAG toward the oldest and most
    revered names in the television categories. 
    Although he did not win an Emmy and was only nominated twice for Boardwalk
    Empire
    , film actor Steve Buscemi—a past Golden Globe film nominee (Ghost World,
    2001)—was nominated all five seasons by SAG in best drama actor and won twice, both times when he
    faced television actors exclusively.  The
    same years that Buscemi won, Betty White picked up two SAG Awards for best comedy actress for a supporting role that earned only one Emmy nomination.  White faced lineups without actresses with
    major film award nominations, was around four decades older than any of her
    competitors and had about as many career Emmy acting nominations as all of her
    competitors together, including her fifth win the year before (Saturday Night
    Live
    ).

    For 2013, Maggie Smith’s (Downton Abbey) supporting performance won
    opposite the performance that defeated her at the previous Emmy ceremony and
    the next one: Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad).  Other
    nominees included Claire Danes (Homeland), immediately following consecutive
    Emmy wins in the leading category, as well as Jessica Lange (American Horror
    Story: Coven
    ), who would go on to win a leading Emmy for the same season.  Although not the only two-time Oscar winner
    in the bunch, Smith was easily the oldest nominee with the longest career and
    was still appearing in prestigious films, having scored a SAG film nomination
    the year before (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel).

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    CanadianFan
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    #367238

    God, I hate SAG.

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    Tom
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    #367239

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
    Game of Thrones 

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
    Orange is the New Black

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 
    Jon Hamm – Mad Men

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series 
    Viola Davis – How To Get Away With Murder

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 
    Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series 
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries 
    Idris Elba – Luther (I keep switching him and Mark Rylance)

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries 
    Queen Latifah – Bessie

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
    Game of Thrones

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    GraemeONeil
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    #367240

    Did predictions for ET Canada. Here’s a link to the full list of predictions:
    http://www.etcanada.com/blogs/etc_177763/screen-actors-guild-awards-predictions/awards

    We also did a fun video about it too:
    https://www.facebook.com/ETCanada/videos/1018739351506385/

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    Andrew Carden
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    #367241

    “Orange is the New Black,” Tambor, Aduba
    “Game of Thrones,” Hamm, Davis
    Elba, Latifah

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    Riley
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    #367242

    Game of Thrones won stunt ensemble before the ceremony.  It is now five for five and the category has only been around nine years.  24 won for its sixth and seventh seasons.

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