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29th TCA Awards Thread

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  • TV12
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    #278596

    The Television Critics Association will announce their nominees in early/mid June and dole out their awards in late July/early August. These are my predictions.

    PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
    -Breaking Bad
    -Game of Thrones
    -The Good Wife
    -Homeland
    -Louie

    OUTSTANDING NEW PROGRAM
    -The Americans
    -Elementary
    -The Following
    -Nashville
    -Orphan Black

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    -The Big Bang Theory
    -Girls
    -Louie
    -Modern Family
    -Veep

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    -Breaking Bad
    -Downton Abbey
    -Game of Thrones
    -Homeland
    -Mad Men

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN MOVIES, MINISERIES, & SPECIALS
    -Behind the Candelabra
    -The Hour 
    -Phil Spector 
    -Political Animals
    -Top of the Lake

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    -Louis C.K., Louie
    -Lena Dunham, Girls
    -Tina Fey, 30 Rock
    -Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
    -Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    -Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    -Nicolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
    -Claire Danes, Homeland
    -Damian Lewis, Homeland
    -Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

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    Beau S.
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    #278598

    I’ve never followed these awards before, but is it a usual occurence for a series to be nominated for Program of the Year but not for it’s individual genre category? You have predicted The Good Wife for Program of the Year, but not for Achievement in Drama. Just curious.

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    SaraR
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    #278599

    I think your predictions are pretty spot on but the critics have been going CRAZY over Tatiana Maslany’s performance in Orphan Black, and I’m going to go ahead and predict that she wins the whole damn thing right now.

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    Renaton
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    #278600

    Maslany might be nominated, but she is not a sure thing to even be a presence. The main critics watch her show, but most still don’t know about it, it’s quite underrated and she’s still little known even among critics. Plus, women don’t always win. Recently, Margulies and Danes have, but they tend to sway towards male roles. Also, her competition is big. You’re getting a bit carried away here. She has hype, but she doesn’t yet have Cranston/Margulies/Danes kind of hype. Also, critics always bitch about genre shows not winning or being nominated for the Emmys, but they also fail in that respect. Sarah Michelle Gellar played an iconic role in one of the most influential genre shows, and she was only nominated once. So while Maslany stands a good chance at being there, she’s still not a lock.

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    SaraR
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    #278601

    Just wrote a long post with some more predictions but it got lost (ugh!), so I’ll just summarize that I think Individual Achievement in Drama will look much different than above.

    Probably
    Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    Claire Danes, Homeland
    Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
    Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
    Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra

    I also think Anna Gunn has a shot — they might want to recognize her over Cranston or maybe even over Danes. It’s worth noting that this category hasn’t had a repeat winner since 05-06 for Hugh Laurie — they like rewarding new people in drama every year but they don’t have a problem with nominating the same people every year. When critics nominate people they only submit two names. So I think Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys will suffer from vote splitting (neither seems to be the definitive standout on their show). Similarly, if you have two votes and want to nominate someone from Homeland, your mind goes to Claire Danes before Damian Lewis. I think Jon Hamm is out — what of significance has he done on Mad Men this year? I think vote splitting will affect the Game of Thrones actors, too.

    Rectify will be in Outstanding New Program, probably in place of The Following, which most critics despised.

    I also think The Americans has a shot at achievement in drama, and Justified will show up here somewhere. Downton’s probably out for drama, too.

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    Andrew Eng
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    #278602

    Just wrote a long post with some more predictions but it got lost (ugh!), so I’ll just summarize that I think Individual Achievement in Drama will look much different than above.

    Probably
    Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    Claire Danes, Homeland
    Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
    Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
    Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra

    I also think Anna Gunn has a shot — they might want to recognize her over Cranston or maybe even over Danes. I think vote splitting will affect the Game of Thrones actors, too.

    Cranston has been nominated every year, except the first. Paul is the only other actor to get in (and only once), while even Esposito couldn’t get in last year. And given how male-skewed this category is (with the female spots taken by Danes and, possibly, Maslany), Gunn will likely miss out in favor of her co-star.  As for the GoT cast, Dinklage has been nominated for the last two years, so clearly the critics can rally behind an actor on the show if they choose. Coster-Waldau seems to have the most praise and buzz (and deservingly so), so like TuckerV, I think he’ll get in if anyone from the show does.

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    Renaton
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    #278603

    You’re overthinking a Maslany victory. And I think Coster-Waldau and fairley would concentrate a lot of the support among them. It’s also possible both Danes and Lewis get in, as they had many nominees come from only one show in the same year many times before. Russell is much more of a name than Rhys, so she will likely get in before he does.

    I know nothing about maslany’s performance besides the fact critics really it, so I’m not biased against it or in favor of it, but it’s worth noticing only four actresses in genre shows got in Individual Achievement in a Drama: Gillian Anderson, SMG, Jennifer Garner and Jessica Lange.  Which includes an awful lot of snubs, including Anna Torv, who also got to play multiple versions of the same character in cult sci-fi series with acclaim. Again, I think Maslany can get in, but let’s not get carried away here. She is not a sure thing yet.

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    Andrew Eng
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    #278604

    ^And only 3 actors have made it in from genre shows: David Duchovny, Matthew Fox, and Peter Dinklage (twice, making him the most nominated actor from a genre show). 

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    Leon94
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    #278605

    Does anyone think Vera Farmiga will get in for Individual Achievement in Drama?

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    SaraR
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    #278606

    Point taken re: Maslany and genre actors and just actresses in general. I’ve not yet seen Orphan Black either but the hype around her performance is very strong. All the major critics are touting it, but the TCA is a large organization so who knows? But just given the way the nomination process takes place and the fact that critics might see this as the only place to recognize her (since she has very little shot at the Emmys) — I mean there’s also the Critics’ Choice but I think Danes has a firmer grip on that one.

    Anyway, I don’t think Farmiga can get in in a combined male/female category.

    I also still don’t think Lewis and Danes can both get in.

    Do Cranston, Danes, Moss, and Douglas seem like sure things then?

    You mention the male bias but might that have to do with the relative dearth of female roles in drama until a few years ago? In any case, I think Moss and Danes very likely get in and so a third actress (Russell, Margulies) seems unlikely.

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    Renaton
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    #278607

    I don’t know if Moss gets in. I think it will be both Lewis and Danes, Cranston, Spacey (can’t believe he hasn’t been mentioned, they might not love the show but they love him) and Douglas. Although i suppose Moss is a very strong possibility, even to win.
     

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    Guest2014
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    #278608

    In an ideal world….

    PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
    Breaking Bad
    Game of Thrones
    NCIS
    Homeland
    The Newsroom

    OUTSTANDING NEW PROGRAM
    The Americans
    Elementary
    The Following
    Nashville
    Continuum

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    The Big Bang Theory
    Community
    House of Lies
    Modern Family
    Veep

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    Breaking Bad
    Downton Abbey
    Game of Thrones
    Homeland
    The Newsroom

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    Don Cheadle, House of Lies
    Lena Dunham, Girls (grrrr…..)
    Tina Fey, 30 Rock
    Jake Johnson, New Girl
    Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
    Rachel Nichols, Continuum
    Claire Danes, Homeland
    Damian Lewis, Homeland
    Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

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    Riley
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    #278609

    Maslany is not getting in because not enough critics watch her.  The TCA has the forty-odd critics that Metacritic tracks, along with the dozen more reputable online-only names, but it has another hundred-plus of seemingly-random people, which is how The Wire never won best drama and how their Program of the Year award is so messy.  Predictions:

    Program: Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, Louie
    New: The Americans, House of Cards, The Mindy Project, Nashville, Rectify
    Heritage: Friday Night Lights, Lost, Saturday Night Live, Star Trek, Twin Peaks

    Comedy: Arrested Development, Girls, Louie, New Girl, 30 Rock
    Drama: The Americans, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Justified
    Miniseries: American Horror Story, Behind the Candelabra, Parade’s End, Phil Spector, Top of the Lake
    News: Anderson Cooper 360°, The Daily Show, The Rachel Maddow Show, 60 Minutes, 30 for 30
    Reality: The Amazing Race, So You Think You Can Dance, Survivor, Top Chef, The Voice
    Youth: Adventure Time, iCarly, Nick News, Switched at Birth, Yo Gabba Gabba!

    Comedy Individual: Will Arnett, Louis C.K., Zooey Deschanel, Lena Dunham, Tina Fey
    Drama Individual: Bryan Cranston, Claire Danes, Vera Farmiga, Keri Russell, Kevin Spacey
    Career: Dick Clark, Ron Howard, Regis Philbin, William Shatner, Henry Winkler

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    Renaton
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    #278610

    ^ 3 women in each individual category? I suppose it could happen, but I don’t find it likely…. and I think Jake Johnson will get in instead of Zooey. Critics seem to love Nick the most out of any character on that show.

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    SaraR
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    #278611

    The weird thing is how a show that wins drama and is nominated for outstanding program can lose that. I don’t understand that.

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