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69TH ANNUAL PRIMETIME EMMY – Winners Predictions

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  • Andrew Carden
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    #1202212057

    If Laurie couldn’t ride SNL vote-splitting to victory, I doubt Chlumsky can.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1981) – Reds

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    Teridax
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    #1202212062

    I had a dream last night that Titus won his category. I’m so tempted to switch to him now lol.

    I had dreams all the time before Emmy ballots were sent out where Steven Universe swept a bunch of Emmy categories, winning for Picture Editing, Music Composition, Sound Mixing, Voice-Over Performance (either for Michaela Dietz for her amazing character arc as Amethyst for as a name-check but still a completely deserving win for 2-time winner Uzo Aduba as the voice of “Bismuth”), Writing, and Drama Series. Alas, only in my dreams. “Bismuth” alone was easily better-crafted, better-paced, more believably-acted, and far more emotionally raw and effectively heartbreaking episode of television than any episode of House of Cards Season 5 and even This Is Us Season 1, even at their very best. They had “Bubbled,” “Mindful Education,” “Three Gems and a Baby,” “That Will Be All,” as well as their fantastic episode submission “Mr. Greg,” SO MANY MASTERPIECES!!!

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    GusCruz
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    #1202212105

    If Laurie couldn’t ride SNL vote-splitting to victory, I doubt Chlumsky can.

    His snub last year for the same role should’ve been telling. He also failed to take advantage of the OJ vote-splitting for The Night Manager. They just don’t like him enough.

    Chlumsky on the other hand is not entirely out of question. The vote-splitting is real here, and I get the feeling there’s goodwill towards her. It’s hard predicting someone after they’ve lost so many times, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

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    ricardo505
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    #1202212710

    If Laurie couldn’t ride SNL vote-splitting to victory, I doubt Chlumsky can.

    His snub last year for the same role should’ve been telling. He also failed to take advantage of the OJ vote-splitting for The Night Manager. They just don’t like him enough.

    Chlumsky on the other hand is not entirely out of question. The vote-splitting is real here, and I get the feeling there’s goodwill towards her. It’s hard predicting someone after they’ve lost so many times, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

    There are many other points:

    – Veep is the frontrunner for Best Comedy Series. The Night Manager wasn’t even close to win Limited Series last year;
    – Julia Louis-Dreyfus is not the only actor from Veep that went to win;
    – The show managed to get two slots in the Supporting Actor category again;
    – The new system tends to make voters to go with their passionate choices, and they love Veep;
    – Vote splitting is real because if voters really watched and loved SNL they might want to give a farewell award to Vanessa Bayer. And probably Leslie Jones will get SNL votes from McKinnon;
    – If tapes had any effect, the fight for the trophy would be between Judith Light and Kathryn Hann, and Chlumsky would be definitely a long shot, as it was her weakest season.

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    Tonbone
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    #1202212718

    After Gerald McRaney won I am picking Sterling K. Brown to win. He overcame vote splitting last year. He can do it again

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    Riley
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    #1202212744

    I am wrestling with drama and limited/movie writing. Did Veep beat Louie two years ago because Veep was ahead in the series race or was Louie just way past its prime? I am wondering if the series winner is guaranteed writing if it is on as much of a roll of Stranger Things (casting, editing). If I am letting my bias influence any of my predictions, it is limited/movie writing. I need to believe that something as creatively innovative as Black Mirror can win writing. Its guild showing (and Netflix availability) would seem to indicate that it has enough visibility to win, but Mr. Robot and The Americans were both series nominees and WGA winners for their eligible seasons last year, yet they still lost to “Battle of the Bastards”.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202212823

    I need to believe that something as creatively innovative as Black Mirror can win writing.

    In other words: is Brooker as well regarded as Moffat? Not even in the UK.

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    Riley
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    #1202212977

    What do you mean?

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    Sagand
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    #1202213007

    I might be biased as I love Charlie Brooker but I’d say he’s at least as well respected as Steven Moffat (in the UK). I might be predicting Black Mirror to win if they were being judged on the whole series. I don’t think it can be matched for the way each episode built it’s own world with the variety of tones and structures with such originality of ideas. I’m not sure ‘San Junipero’ is the strongest writing submission but I understand the decision to go with the one with the most buzz and to match with the movie submission. ‘San Junipero’ replies on the music, costumes and cinematography to create the nostalgia more than dialogue and the structure is fairly linear. (The Music Supervision snub is unforgivable.)

    Big Little Lies has the advantage of being adapted from a popular book, having so many nominations made it required viewing and it’s most likely to win best miniseries. If GoT can coattail to a writing win with an episode like BotB an acclaimed writer like David E. Kelley shouldn’t have much problem riding a limited series winner. (Chris Beacham argued in the most recent slugfest that writers might not go for BLL due to jealousy of David E. Kelley; negative voting might of had some effect in the ranked system but less in plurality.)

    The drama writing race is more of a test of if the writing branch will ever be independent in any circumstance. If they go for Stranger Things it’ll never make sense to bet against the Drama Series front runner in writing again. In my opinion more things point towards it being ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ but we don’t really have enough information about the new voting for that to be statistically sound so there is no wrong answer (except the one that loses).

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    Teridax
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    #1202213013

    I am wrestling with drama and limited/movie writing. Did Veep beat Louie two years ago because Veep was ahead in the series race or was Louie just way past its prime? I am wondering if the series winner is guaranteed writing if it is on as much of a roll of Stranger Things (casting, editing). If I am letting my bias influence any of my predictions, it is limited/movie writing. I need to believe that something as creatively innovative as Black Mirror can win writing. Its guild showing (and Netflix availability) would seem to indicate that it has enough visibility to win, but Mr. Robot and The Americans were both series nominees and WGA winners for their eligible seasons last year, yet they still lost to “Battle of the Bastards”.

    THIS. Louie was never “past its prime.” It ended on a really high note, but there was simply no stopping the Veep juggernaut that season. Even Tony Hale wound up winning again.

    I have become completely convinced that Big Little Lies can not win Writing, due to David E. Kelley not being respected enough by the branch. I am THIIIIS CLOSE to switching to either The Night Of, which overperformed at the Creative Arts or Black Mirror, which is truly the “apple in a bag of oranges” due to its nature as a 1-hour long episode of an anthology series. I am already sure that The Night Of will win Directing due to the Marsh nomination stealing only a couple votes from DGA winner Steven Zaillian, who directed every episode except for Marsh’s. The Night Of will win Limited Series, because I can’t buy that BLL will win after losing both Writing and Directing and already Editing under this popular vote system.

    Speaking of Writing/Directing winners failing to win Series… I think you’re right Riley. If a show wins both Writing and Directing nowadays it will probably win Drama Series. I am officially switching over to The Handmaid’s Tale for Drama Series, because I believe that it is the most important, and the Emmys will want to be relevant by awarding the most critically acclaimed show that feels more culturally significant than ever in the Trump era. I already have THT winning Lead Actress, Directing, and Writing, so why wouldn’t it pick up Series along the way? I still am predicting Millie Bobby Brown to win Supporting though, not because I think Ann Dowd will lose too many votes to Samira Wiley, but because MBB is just too far out ahead in regards to hype.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202213020

    All I’m sure of is that I won’t be in the top 24 this year lol

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    Riley
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    #1202213045

    I hope so. Even without Judith Light, I disagree with many of your predictions, so if you are near the top, that means that I am not. I like the top twenty-four from last year though. It is handy being able to see the predictions of you, Sagand, Teridax, eastwest and jacob121 in one place, as I would want to check all of yours anyway.

    The last season of Louie was snubbed by PGA and WGA, despite winning the latter for the season before.

    I would never call “San Junipero” linear, with its time travel and dimension-hopping.

    Chris’s prediction of The Night Of winning writing was interesting because he kind of brushed off Marcus as ridiculous for thinking that Big Little Lies would not generally sweep.

    I am unsure that a split is less likely in drama than limited because casting versus cinematography/editing/sound seemed like a hard split to me. I saw a bit more unity in Stranger Things‘ haul. It might be unfair to equate Game of Thrones and Big Little Lies as series winners, as the former took its series race in a landslide.

    Part of the conundrum is that voters only have two opportunities to vote for each of their favourites. It is counterintuitive to predicting, but voters are not really capable of spreading the wealth (which is why I hate when people say that voters will give Donald Glover directing as a consolation prize). If a writer likes Stranger Things, they have two opportunities to vote for it (series and writing).

    I cannot decide how big Stranger Things is. It did not sweep the Creative Arts to the extent that Game of Thrones did, but Stranger Things did beat Game of Thrones head-to-head at PGA and DGA.

    The Night Of for directing and Big Little Lies for writing seems to be a more common combination than the reverse, but I would caution that Steven Zaillian won DGA by default and that the directors may have just been responsible for Big Little Lies‘ casting win. It is the casting win coupled with its series frontrunner status that have me predicting Jean-Marc Vallée.

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    montana82
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    #1202213049

    How many members are there of the TV Academy performers branch? How many people are voting on these acting categories? Hundreds? Thousand? Thousands? Tens of thousands?

    I can’t find ANYTHING on the TV Academy website outlining the number of members of each branch. It can make a difference in who you predict.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  montana82.
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    Teridax
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    #1202213055

    All I’m sure of is that I won’t be in the top 24 this year lol

    I feel the same way but I PRAY I’m wrong about that.

    Some key changes you NEED to make:

    SAG and TCA nominee Sterling K. Brown, who won’t lose that many votes to Milo for Drama Lead Actor. The show basically got a Drama Series nod because of the power of Sterling’s performance alone! He was the heart of the show! IF you really don’t want to predict Brown no matter what, then pick Kevin Spacey, who is overdue and his show is from a Drama Series nominee. Also, this will NOT be the year Ryan Murphy finally wins a Directing Emmy, considering Feud: Bette and Joan underperformed with wins at the Creative Arts and failing to even get nominated for Editing and Cinematography. Predict either Jean-Marc Vallee or my prediction of Steven Zaillian “The Beach,” who both have great shots at winning. Also, if you’re going to stick with Stranger Things in Series then you better predict it for either Writing or Directing. I switched to The Handmaid’s Tale today for Series because I was already predicting it for those 2 as well as Moss. Also, Comedy Supporting is between Louie Anderson who won last year and whose show picked up an acting nomination and Alec Baldwin if SNL completely sweeps. Great calls on it winning the other 4 categories. Even though I am not predicting “Chicanery” or Regina King, they still could happen so if I’m wrong and they win I don’t want to take you down with me!

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    Miles Allen
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    #1202213058

    I’m going out on a limb and predicting The Crown to win writing and Stranger Things to win directing. The former is probably ridiculous and I might change to The Handmaid’s Tale but I’m not sure. I think if Stranger Things is to win it should pick up one or the two but I could be wrong. It’s not a forgone conclusion that Stranger Things is winning Series but it’s looking like it at this point. This time I’m not playing it as safe as I usually am, like Light over McKinnon, H. Macy over Glover and Tambor, Molina over Skarsgard. I’m definitely not getting in the Top 24 but that’s alright lol

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