September 4, 2013 at 1:20 am #296186
It’s early for 2014 Emmy predictions, but 4 episodes left untill the finale of Breaking Bad, and both Cranston and Paul already have a killer tape in ”Confessions.”
I belive that with that tape they are truly unbeatable next year, and who knows if they might have even a batter one in the next four episodes.
Does anyone already feel their wins, a year away?September 4, 2013 at 1:49 am #296188
They’re not unbeatable. I think that Jon Hamm is the most potent threat against Bryan Cranston next year, assuming Mad Men S7 is a step above S6, then voters will want to reward it somehow, and Hamm would be very satisfying win. I wouldn’t say that Cranston has a tape in Confessions, though strong, he only really has the confession tape, which, though great, doesn’t give enough screentime, it’s like a Fifty One equivalent for him – but for sure, something else is probably in the mix for him in the next 4. Paul however has a real strong tape in Confessions, as powerful as, if not more powerful, than End Times, so he could easily win, but Dean Norris with Blood Money could be a spoiler.September 4, 2013 at 2:28 am #296189
A good two or three years (perhaps), GoldDerby.com noticied a pattern with the category Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Win the gold pretty early on with your series … or you won’t win at all [specifically for your series].
Think of Jimmy Smits in NYPD Blue (nominated in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999), Martin Sheen in The West Wing (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006), and Hugh Laurie in House (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011) as examples. All racked up five nominations, at a minimum, for at least 80 percent of eligibilty for their work with their series’ run. Smits was nominated with all five of his eligible seasons (he joined in 1994 and departed in 1998). Sheen was nominated with six of his series’ seven seasons. Laurie was nominated with six of his series’ eight seasons.
If you’re looking for a break in pattern, or what may appear to be a counter argument, some may suggest Kyle Chandler winning in 2011 for Friday Night Lights. That he was nominated just twice (2010, 2011) despite the series’ eligibilty including 2007, 2008, and 2009. So he was nominated with two of the series’ five Emmy-eligible seasons. Thing is, one has to track his nominations count specifically for that NBC/DirecTV series. Chandler lost on his first try but won with his second. (That, by the way, ran a ten-year parallel with the late James Ganfolfini in The Sopranos. He was nominated for Season #01 in 2000, lost, but came back to win the first of his three statues with Season #02 in 2001.) Chandler cannot be made much of an exception.
This seems more about human responses from voting members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.September 4, 2013 at 7:13 am #296190
Despite having good tapes, I definitely don’t think they’re unbeatable. There is just too much time between then and now. We haven’t see anything from their competition and also it feels as if this year is “Breaking Bad’s” goodbye Emmys. If they do end up with the best tapes in the category, then yes they are the frontrunners, but we still have to see everyone else.September 4, 2013 at 7:54 am #296191
If aaron paul has a submission as good as end times he is UNBEATABLE. Hell, he might even win this year with a submission that doesn´t nearly measure up to the ones before.
Bryan Cranston I´m not sure. He has three already, so they might not care about giving him another statue. I also don´t think hamm will be that much of a frunt-runner. Just because mad men ends doesn´t mean they are suddenly gonna start giving acting awards.September 4, 2013 at 9:27 am #296192
I agree that it’s WAY too early to declare either unbeatable considering we have not seen any of their competition.
I thought Paul’s performance in “Confessions” was “End Times”-esque so I could certainly see him being the favorite with that.
I do not think that Cranston has had a winning tape yet. I agree with Awardzilla that all he really has is that speech and I don’t think that would be enough to win.
The same goes for any of the other cast members — Anna Gunn, Norris (who would be competing against Paul), etc.September 4, 2013 at 9:35 am #296193
No one is unbeatable.September 4, 2013 at 9:36 am #296194
I think Paul has two good submissions already with “Confessions” or “Rabid Dog.” Cranston could submit “Confessions,” but somehow I imagine one of the four remaining episodes is going to give him more of a chance to wow us with his brilliance. No one is really a lock. There are a lot of factors that go into who wins these things. Having a killer tape isn’t always what matters. Still, I’d be thrilled to see everyone in the cast win Emmys. They’ve all been outstanding for these first four episodes.September 4, 2013 at 9:47 am #296195
Only Jon Stewart is unbeatable.September 4, 2013 at 11:16 am #296197
Instead of repeating my fellow forumers and saying that no one is unbeatable, I understand where your question is coming from. I would say that both men are surely going to get some killer material in the final four episodes of this final season. The writers clearly have a grasp of the power that these two actors have with regards to intense performances – and with the storyline going the direction that it is, I cannot imagine a scenario in which we don’t get another jaw-dropping confrontation between the two that rivals or tops “End Times.”September 4, 2013 at 11:20 am #296198
No. No one’s unbeatable. We don’t know what the buzz will be like for “Breaking Bad” this time next when it will be sadly off the air for good. It won’t be an “out of sight, out of mind” scenario for Emmy voters I think, b/c the show is one of their favorites, but the attention could very well move on to something else, especially if the reception this year is high for wins. They won’t have the benefit of the current season’s buzz aiding in the past year’s tapes next year. Cranston and Paul are both frontrunners though like they’ll always be.September 4, 2013 at 11:32 am #296199
Way too early to tell, but I’m saying no. Right now Cranston only has Confessions to submit and Paul has Confessions and Rabid Dog.September 5, 2013 at 11:26 am #296200
Let’s face it: Matthew Weiner has probably been crafting the final season of Mad Men while he was still working on The Sopranos.September 5, 2013 at 11:45 am #296201
There are times when an actor gets a tape that truly does seem unbeatable when it airs. Neither Cranston nor Paul has been given that type of episode so far. They’ve both submitted better in the past than their purposed submissions for next year.