August 29, 2016 at 3:04 pm #1201915214
I know, it’s not like the VMAs and Emmys have similar voter bases, but her VMAs sweep and performance reminded me what a cultural force “Lemonade” has been this year. I finally got around to seeing the whole thing in advance of the VMAs, and it’s damn good. More importantly, it stands out.
For Best Variety Special Directing, it’s the apple in a bag of oranges: a visually dynamic, thematically varied collection of musical short films up against a bunch of live and/or on-stage events. I’m predicting “Grease Live,” but I’ve got “Lemonade” in second. I’ve also got “Lemonade” ranked second for Variety Special behind “Kennedy Center Honors.”August 29, 2016 at 4:36 pm #1201915240
Kennedy Center Honors is always the safe bet. But you never know…
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2001) – Randy Newman Catches a BreakAugust 29, 2016 at 5:18 pm #1201915246
I thought it was the frontrunner?August 29, 2016 at 8:08 pm #1201915262
If it were up to me, it would go 4-4. I really wasn’t a Beyonce fan before this album. Was still thinking of her as the country bumpkin who Diana Ross’ed her way to a career come up I thought she wasn’t really deserving of. Thant and her legions of fans, turned me off. But this masterpiece is something else. I have become a fan of hers for sure and I am wondering what she is going to do from this point on. I think she’s more of a safe bet at the upcoming Grammys than here. Being that shiny bright apple in the bag of oranges is so apt, but could be the ultimate detractor. While she’s an icon, not sure if she’ll be embraced by the TV industry for one of their awards. All of the reviews of Grease: Live is how it was a stunning feat to pull off from a technical standpoint. So voters who know what goes into a live production could be inclined to vote for that or the other oranges. Right now I have it winning two (variety special and editing).August 29, 2016 at 10:47 pm #1201915297
Lemonade ranks second for special and third for directing in the odds. I am predicting it for the former and have it in second for the latter. It is the apple in the bag of oranges for special and I think that it helps that people have actually seen it (and that is why I have Carpool Karaoke second).
It might get directing, but look at how well Grease: Live! has done. Twelve million viewers and ten nominations, including casting over American Crime!
I think that the days of the Kennedy Center Honors are over with the whole academy voting instead of just a small panel. They went far in the other direction with Sweeney Todd last year.August 30, 2016 at 4:34 am #1201915338
How strong is Adele’s chances in Variety Special?August 30, 2016 at 6:53 am #1201915373
It’d be nice for the TV Academy to embrace Beyonce now. Bored to death of her needing Grammy recognition.August 30, 2016 at 8:46 am #1201915419
I’ll be posting my rankings in the prediction center this weekend, but I plan to make the following predictions for variety specials.
Best Variety Special: Lemonade
Best Writing For A Variety Special: Amy Schumer: Live At The Apollo
Best Directing For A Variety Special and Outstanding Special Class Program: Grease Live!August 30, 2016 at 10:10 am #1201915472
Nah, Lemonade may win some technical categories, perhaps directing, they will play it safe awarding Kennedy Center Honors in the main category, the same with Adele’s special. I have to say that Lemonade special was quite boring and pointless for me, I can admire some technical aspects on it, but in general I can’t even get pass through 10 minutes of it, I guess I’m not part of the behive.August 30, 2016 at 10:38 pm #1201915887
I think that the days of the Kennedy Center Honors are over with the whole academy voting instead of just a small panel. They went far in the other direction with Sweeney Todd last year.
The Kennedy Center Honors lost Variety Special to SNL’s 40th anniversary. Sweeney Todd upset the Tonys to win Special Class Program.September 1, 2016 at 4:56 am #1201916556
I think that Beyonce’s VMA sweep would have mattered more had it happened sooner than the night before Emmy voting ended. “Lemonade” is unlike anything this category has ever rewarded before. The precedent is established for “KSH” to lose, sure, but that was to something seen as singular and too big to ignore with “SNL 40.” And with Adele around, I feel like some of that music vote could be siphoned off. The one in my gut that I say watch out for is James Corden. He had the kind of breakthrough year you can only dream of with the Tonys hosting success, the viral sensation that is “Carpool Karoake,” upstaging Stephen effin’ Colbert, and being the only nominee playing new material night after night during Emmy voting. I’m this close to predicting him in Variety Talk Series. But it’s an election year, and the smart money is with John Oliver. This is a perfect place to reward Corden instead as a consolation prize.