July 28, 2015 at 5:34 am #356492
Mel Brooks / The Comedians / “Celebrity Guest”
Pro: a) he’s a legend in TV industry, respected veteran; b) yes, only three small scenes, but you feel like met a really great man with wonderful sense of humor (his voice, his little stories, his “meow” impression); c) factor of sentimentality (probably, it’s last nomination for him).
Contra: a) he already won a three Emmy in this category; b) “The Comedians” isn’t popular show and voters can miss Brooks submission just because they doesn’t want spend time for this (in this case, I suppose, Brooks got a nomination only because of name recognition); c) they simply doesn’t care about him anymore because in competition are more showy contenders (like Hamm or even Giamatti).
Louis C. K. / Saturday Night Live / “Host: Louis C. K.”
Pro: a) his third consecutive nomination in this category; b) if they want reward him as an actor for “Louie” but feels that’s impossible because of stiff competition, they surely can reward him in guest category; c) he has a funny monologue in the beginning and some good scenes in the middle of an episode.
Contra: a) yes, he’s very popular, but there’s a feeling that voters more like not his acting style but his talent as writer; b) it’s not Fallon’s or Timberlake’s situation, when SNL had a very strong candidate in guest category; c) they can reward him again for writing (he has two nomination this year).
Paul Giamatti / Inside Amy Schumer / “12 Angry Men”
Pro: a) he is in the most successful episode of the popular show (voters already saw this parody on great classic american movie or definitely will watch in the first place because of hype); b) he’s showy in ensemble’s piece and keeps his role on the edge of caricature, almost doesn’t overacting which is good for satire; c) hilarious scene with Amy Schumer at the end of an episode very much helps him because of contrast and improvisation.
Contra: a) voters can seeing this episode as an ensemble’s or writer’s achievement, but not as achievement only one actor; b) inner competition – voters who doesn’t saw episode or doesn’t voted for Giamatti will thinking after viewing that John Hawkes or even Vincent Kartheiser were much better then Giamatti (and wouldn’t vote for him).
Bill Hader / Saturday Night Live / “Host: Bill Hader”
Pro: a) for years he is most consistently good member on the SNL (his first nomination as guest star, but he had been nominated twice earlier as supporting actor; voters can think that is the right time for him to win for iconic roles on the beloved show); b) he has a many funny scenes that stay in memory for long (especially like Stefon or Herb Welch); c) he’s playing with Kristen Wiig and that always gives a very good mixture of humor, but in this case also a nostalgic sense, sentimentality because they are now guest stars, not regulars.
Contra: a) again, it’s not Fallon’s or Timberlake’s situation; b) if he can’t win in the supporting category, he doesn’t stand a chance in the guest category (that’s not fair argument, I admit, but some voters can think in this way) – they like him, but not enough for win; c) probably, voters in this time doesn’t want to reward actors from SNL (there’s new popular show).
Jon Hamm / Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt / “Kimmy Makes Waffles!”
Pro: a) he is very overdue for first Emmy; b) he playing a court scenes which voters always love; c) his reactions are priceless, you can’t not smile or laugh when seeing Hamm’s play in the episode.
Contra: a) it’s not Bob Newhart’s situation (Hamm still could win for Mad Men), and even not Neil Patrick Harris’ situation (because he had a Tony Awards, when was nominated and won for Glee); b) UKS so much resembles 30 Rock that voters would feel that Hamm repeated in the role (really, how much Drew Baird is different from Richard Wayne Gary Wayne?); c) he’s relatively young and voters can wait for another year-two before reward him.
Bradley Whitford / Transparent / “Best New Girl”
Pro: a) voters love transformation in the performance; b) important topic definitely help to overcome other contenders; c) he playing more dramatic character, but it’s still powerful performance on level with Jeffrey Tambor.
Contra: a) maybe, too subtle performance in comparison with Giamatti and Hamm; b) he is impressive, but too dramatic.
Frontrunners: Jon Hamm (overdue), Bradley Whitford (important topic)
Spoiler: Mel Brooks (sentimentality)
Not enough for win: Paul Giamatti, Bill Hader
Outsider: Louis CKJuly 28, 2015 at 6:24 am #356494
Having watched all of the submissions, I’m actually tempted to rank Hader out front. He gets a lot of characters to play with in his episode (even reprising Stefan and war vet Anthony Peter Coleman), and participated in one of the more heralded sketches of the season (the 39 Cents sketch). Given how this is his third nomination, it’s clear that voters like him. I think it’s actually a lot easier for him in the Guest category, because he isn’t up against supporting actors with their own individual storylines. Now, granted, we don’t know how much episode content will matter this year, but Hader isn’t completely lacking in buzz, either, given how he’s currently playing Amy Schumer’s romantic interest in Trainwreck. A lot of us are assuming that the publicity for the movie could help Schumer out in the Lead Actress category, and while she obviously would be the primary benefactor of its success, I wonder if the film could buoy his prospects as well.
I flip-flop between him and Hamm for the top spot. I think the narrative is clearly there for Hamm, and he’s only hurt by lack of screentime in the UKS finale. That said, he is still quite funny whenever he appears, and a lot of that is right at the opening of the episode. His Apprentice audition video is very amusing, as is the sight of him in that beard.
Giamatti gets to be very loud and bombastic, which is great and helps out his chances here. The problems he has are, I agree, that the success of the episode’s execution might dwarf his actual performance and that he is one part of an ensemble. While he does stand out, I could imagine voters feeling like he shares too much screentime with the other cast members over the 22-minute runtime to truly merit a win.
Whitford is a bit of a question mark for me. He is very good in the episode, and Transparent has clearly resonated with members of the actors branch. But it really isn’t funny, and even when he’s onscreen, I didn’t find the focus to be squarely on him as much as it was on his and Tambor’s rapport. It’s more like he blends in with the episode, rather than stand out.
Louis C.K. is actually quite funny in his episode, so he might not be one to discout entirely. But it just doesn’t feel like that essential a performance. Certainly, the Emmys still enjoy C.K., but I wouldn’t say that he’s as hot with them now as he was in the last few years, and the episode isn’t quite flooring like Bill Hader’s is at times.
And it’s always nice to see Mel Brooks, but he really doesn’t do too much in his conversations with Crystal. He’s amusing, but I can’t imagine voters expressing much passion for this.
Current predictions (based on submissions):
1) Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
2) Jon Hamm, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
3) Paul Giamatti, Inside Amy Schumer
4) Bradley Whitford, Transparent
5) Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live
6) Mel Brooks, The Comedians
Potential predictions change (adding in buzz):
1) Jon Hamm, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
2) Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
3) Bradley Whitford, Transparent
4) Paul Giamatti, Inside Amy Schumer
5) Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live
6) Mel Brooks, The ComediansJuly 28, 2015 at 3:26 pm #356495
1. Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
2. Paul Giamatti, Inside Amy Schumer
3. Jon Hamm, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
4. Bradley Whitford, Transparent
5. Mel Brooks, The Comedians
6. Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live
Hader’s submission had me pissing with laughter. Giamatti did well in a well done entire episode sketch. Hamm is funny but nothing too special. Didn’t care much for Whitford on the show but he’s alright here. Brooks didn’t do enough and his entire appearance is nothing but inside jokes. CK’s hosting gig was a unwatchable disaster. Johnson should have been the 2nd SNL host here if there really needed to be another one.July 28, 2015 at 8:53 pm #356496
Yeah I’m going out on a limb and saying Hader is winning. I just rewatched his episode and it is really wonderful. Between Stefon, his Al Pacino impersonation, the news reporter, and his opening with Kristen Wiig and Harvey Fierstein, he’s got a great episode. Plus he is a two time nominee. It didn’t help Kristen Wiig but her episode wasn’t as strong as it could have been and I’m still puzzled why Melissa Leo won for Louie but she had some great competition with Melissa McCarthy, Molly Shannon, Dot Marie Jones, and Elaine Stritch. All of them had winning episodes that year. This year kind of sort of
Bradley Whitford is very light and provides more comedy to the show and has really lovely chemistry with Tambor. I think he could potentially take it
Jon Hamm has a lot going for him. Could win for both drama and comedy proving his range as an actor plus he’s been a favorite in this category with 30 Rock as well. His episode is very funny too and he could definitely win but something tells me he isn’t a slam dunk
Paul Giamatti is wonderful in his episode but I don’t think he’ll win.
Mel Brooks is kind of just there at a desk spouting out funny lines but your more just happy to see him then really get into his performance. He does a great job but he’s been rewarded a lot and has other chances this year to pull off a win
Louis C.K. is a name check. He’s fine but he doesn’t do much new and it was his weakest hosting gig to date
Hader, Whitford, and Hamm are really the ones I could see pull a win but Giamatti and Brooks could pull a sneakerooJuly 28, 2015 at 10:28 pm #356497
I really thought Hamm should have submitted “Kimmy Rides a Bike” where we see more of his character which I hope returns next season. But I’ve started to wonder if Hader could get a boost from being in “Trainwrek”? He’s the male star of a hit comedy movie on the movie poster and if we’re using the logic that this could help Schumer isn’t it more possible in a guest category Hader could pull this off?July 29, 2015 at 3:42 am #356498
Everyone is overthinking this – this will be an easy win for Bill Hader. He managed to get consecutive nominations, is a previous winner and is considered the greatest male SNL castmember of the 21st century. Him returning home was a big thing, and while his episode doesn’t have the virality of the Fallon or Timberlake episodes, it was still a tour-de-force in comedy, and he was great. This will be a very easy victory for him.
The only other threat is Jon Hamm, but I don’t see him winning at all this year. It is just one of those traditionally stupid “forever loser” stories. He’ll win for another role, perhaps in a TV Movie/Miniseries, but I see him maybe even splitting the vote with his two nominations
The rest don’t really stand much of a chanceJuly 29, 2015 at 9:15 am #356499
Yay, I’ve seen all six of these nominees! My pick would be Jon Hamm, and I think he can actually pull off being a double winner this year with the new voting changes in effect (Drama Series is tricky with “Game of Thrones” surging and overperforming the way that it did). Reverend Richard Wayne Gary Wayne is a riot, and I’m expecting that there will be some voters who will be greatly impressed that the guy who plays the iconic Don Draper can also do something this silly and memorable. I remember Bill Hader having one of the better episodes of the past 40th season of “SNL,” and with the success of “Trainwreck” in his corner plus doing some of his funniest characters here (Herb Welch, the Vietnam vet puppet guy, and the life-giving STEFON!), he’s certainly in this race to win it. I think I’m placing Bradley Whitford in my top three, mainly for the contrast performance he’s giving versus the rest of the field, the #OMGBrave! work of whenever a straight actor dares to play gay/drag/trans characters. He was really good in his episode all the same, and again, he’s a past Emmy-winning favorite who I think will impress some voters with his unexpected range. Paul Giamatti was a riot in the notoriously brilliant classic-in-the-making “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” episode. So crass and bawdy and hilarious! I wonder with that curious guest acting nomination for “Downton Abbey” last year in Guest Actor in a Drama Series (the show’s first nomination there) if some groundswell of support is present for him that we don’t realize, along with the high buzz of “Inside Amy Schumer” in general. It could also be the tired “name-checking” rationalization too, but he earned this nomination fair and square. It’s too bad that John Hawkes couldn’t join him. I’d have Hawkes easily replace the last two nominees. Nothign against comedy legend Mel Brooks, but “The Comedians” was such an awful misfire on so many levels. All the talk about it making a Comedy Series run and all was so very unfounded and overblown (even I bought into the idea of Billy Crystal making it into Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, which was more about his legend status than actual work on the show). Brooks’s scenes were meta and cool (a list of reasons why he shouldn’t guest star on Crystal’s sketch comedy series, but look, he’s guest-starring on Crystal’s actual comedy series!). I should rank a former winner like Brooks higher than fifth, but I can’t bring myself to do it. Love Louis C.K., and I’ll stick it out with “Louie” to the end (even in an off season like season 5, there were gems to be found here and there with episodes like “Bobby’s House” and the stellar “Cop Story” that Michael Rapaport should have not only been nominated here for but WON THE EMMY OUTRIGHT!), but I can’t with his “SNL” hosting gigs anymore. A rambling and borderline offensive opening monologue about child molestation (among other taboo topics) led to sketch after sketch of nonsense (for example, the shoe store sketch where he has to “talk black” around Leslie Jones; just godawful). A season finale episode is usually held to a higher standard than that, so it’s telling that this particular finale wasn’t “SNL”‘s Variety Sketch Series submission like it normally is (they picked The Rock’s episode instead, which I found to be equally blah, but Johnson is having a moment right now, so whatever). How dare I place Louis C.K. with all of his acting, writing, directing, and soon-to-be-announced producing nominations in sixth place! Well, I’m doing it, bitches. Jon Hamm vs. Bill Hader in the end. I’m anticipating a big night for Jon Hamm in September, so I’m predicting him, I think.
1. Jon Hamm, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (“KImmy Makes Waffles”)
2. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live” (“Bill Hader/Hozier”)
3. Bradley Whitford, “Transparent” (“Best New Girl”)
4. Paul Giamatti, “Inside Amy Schumer” (“12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer”)
5. Mel Brooks, “The Comedians” (“Celebrity Guest”)
6. Louis C.K., “Saturday Night Live” (“Louis C.K./Rihanna”)July 29, 2015 at 9:29 am #356500
I really thought Hamm should have submitted “Kimmy Rides a Bike” where we see more of his character which I hope returns next season. But I’ve started to wonder if Hader could get a boost from being in “Trainwreck”? He’s the male star of a hit comedy movie on the movie poster and if we’re using the logic that this could help Schumer isn’t it more possible in a guest category Hader could pull this off?
Ha, I see you read my post. ;^)