August 21, 2015 at 1:42 pm #358870
What are your predictions and analysis for the Emmy winner as Best Movie/Mini Actor? The nominees are…
Adrien Brody, “Houdini”
Ricky Gervais, “Derek Special”
Timothy Hutton, “American Crime”
Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”
David Oyelowo, “Nightingale”
Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall”August 21, 2015 at 3:19 pm #358872
Who I think will win is completely different from I think should win so my #1 is who i think will but #2 is the latter
6) BrodyAugust 21, 2015 at 5:25 pm #358873
I’m torn between rylance and jenkinsAugust 21, 2015 at 6:52 pm #358874
I have David winning. He gave a powerful performance as he was the only person in the entire movie. He also has the movie star buzz from Selma and with the academy wanting to me more diverse maybe Oyelowo can win here.August 21, 2015 at 7:11 pm #358875
I’m predicting Jenkins but something tells me Oyelowo might take this due to many factors including his Oscar snub. I will burn my house down if Adrien Brody wins somehowAugust 22, 2015 at 2:05 am #358876
I really cannot tell what the sentiment truly is with David Oyelowo. The media really hyped up his Oscar “snub”, but the media is not synonymous with the academy. With the academy, he was not really even that close, seeing as BFCA/Globe nominee Oyelowo would not have been ahead of SAG/BAFTA/BFCA/Globe nominee Jake Gyllenhaal or BAFTA/BFCA/Globe nominee Ralph Fiennes. So maybe people will have been tricked into the narrative of him being snubbed or maybe they do not care, since they were the ones who snubbed him in the first place.
I have not seen Nightingale yet and I doubt that voters have either. Richard Jenkins was great, but it was ultimately a front-loaded supporting role and one that did not exactly require too much flexing of acting muscle, so under the old system, I think that Oyelowo would have prevailed over Jenkins with the more Emmy-friendly material. So will this be like the Oscar short categories where voters only vote if they have seen the nominees or will voters think that they are familiar enough with Oyelowo from Selma, Jenkins from Olive Kitteridge, Adrien Brody from Houdini and Ricky Gervais from the Golden Globes to cast a vote for their favourite? And again, is that Oyelowo because of Selma or Jenkins because they actually watched Olive Kitteridge?
Maybe Mark Rylance is a factor since Wolf Hall did really well in the nominations, but it did not do quite as well as Olive Kitteridge, plus Rylance has less name recognition than Jenkins. If voters actually do watch the tapes, that helps Jenkins because his tape is the first episode, whereas the first episode is all that I have seen from Wolf Hall and that better not be Rylance’s best option. I think that Rylance is second at best, so that is not going to yield an Emmy. The only edge that he has is carrying his miniseries.August 22, 2015 at 6:35 am #358877
I have to agree with questioning how much support and sentiment David Oyelowo actually has. Yes, he may have had enough to get him nominated, but in these categories that is not saying much. I can easily imagine many of the voters saw his name on the ballot and remembered him from the past year and checked his name off. But if you actually asked them if they watched Nightigale or what the heck it’s about, they most likely would have no clue. Nightingale pretty much came and went with little to no fan fare on a Friday night in May and I highly doubt that most voters have sought it out since then.
Or I can imagine a lot of voters saw the ballot and thought “oh, isn’t that the guy from Selma? Let’s vote for him”. Probably similar to how Chiwotel Elojifer was nominated for “Dancing on the Edge” last year.
I have to go with Richard Jenkins for the simple fact that Olive Kitteridge is the one project in this category that voters are most likely to have actually watched and seen.August 22, 2015 at 11:43 am #358878
I have to agree with questioning how much support and sentiment David Oyelowo actually has. Yes, he may have had enough to get him nominated, but in these categories that is not saying much. I can easily imagine many of the voters saw his name on the ballot and remembered him from the past year and checked his name off. But if you actually asked them if they watched Nightigale or what the heck it’s about, they most likely would have no clue. Nightingale pretty much came and went with little to no fan fare on a Friday night in May and I highly doubt that most voters have sought it out since then
This will be an easy call for Richard Jenkins. I’m surprised why is everyone doubting on him so much.
Jenkins is actually the true star of that miniseries more than McDormand in my opinion. Olive Kitteridge was a big hit and if I were a voter I’d tempted vote for Jenkins more, simply because of his characters likability on the show and how heartbreaking his end was. And as thedemonhog pointed out earlier, he dominated the first hour so if some voter quitted the show after then and didn’t watch the entire series, they would have amazed by Kazan and Jenkins only.
Let’s admit it, no one even knows what Nightingale is. Nomination is already its own reward and it is more than enough to ”fix” his Oscar snub for a project no one is aware of.August 22, 2015 at 4:35 pm #358879
Is there a dark-horse that could Barry-Pepper the category this year? That is, it doesn’t go to Jenkins/Oyelowo/Rylance, but instead, Brody/Gervais/Hutton. Brody and Hutton are Oscar winners receiving their first Emmy nom, while Gervais is a dual Emmy winner.August 22, 2015 at 5:29 pm #358880
I would probably actually predict Gervais over Oyelowo under the old system. He would Laura Linney his way to a win. But under the current system, it is hard to predict him when he could not even get a movie nomination. That is pathetic, given the field.August 22, 2015 at 5:47 pm #358881
I would love it if Adrien Brody caused another upset by winning but I don’t think it is possible. David Oyelowo should win it easily but it will probably go to one of the older white men in the category.August 22, 2015 at 6:20 pm #358882
Voting for David Oyelowo on the nomination ballot is one thing and it’s not like there were lots of options other than him anyway… But since they are still signing an affidavit proving that they have seen all the submitted material; voters who haven’t done that, probably wouldn’t want to jeopardize themselves for ranking some performance they haven’t seen in the first place, at least most of them.August 22, 2015 at 6:43 pm #358883
I don’t care why Oyelowo was nominated, his performance is electrifying. He is definitely my first choice.
Jenkins and Oyelowo are the front runners, while Rylance is the dark horse. I suppose Adrien Brody could “Barry Pepper” himself to a win . Hutton and Gervais don’t have a chance.