Can a Nominee With No #1 Votes Win? Yes!

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  • Lance
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    #259922

    Can the nominee with NO #1 votes win?  Yes

    Can the nominee with the most #1 votes come in last?  Yes

    Here is the scenerio:

     

    1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Scores
    1st Nom: 30 0 0 0 20 50 30+100+300=430
    2nd Nom: 28 0 0 0 50 22 28+250+132=410
    3rd Nom: 22 0 0 30 30 18 22+120+150+108=400
    4th Nom: 15 0 5 70 0 10 15+15+280+60=370
    5th Nom: 5 40 55 0 0 0 5+80+165=250
    6th Nom: 0 60 40 0 0 0 120+120= 240

    The nominee with the lowest score wins, so the 6th nominee with 240 points wins, but they didn’t get a single 1st place vote!

     

    Now, obviously this is an extreme situation, but through this
    example you can see how the scoring makes a huge difference in who is crowned the
    winner.  If you ranked them based, only,
    on number one votes the order would go, completely, in the opposite direction. 


    Therefore, when looking at who is going to
    win an Emmy, you have to not only look at who is going to receive the most number
    1 votes, you have to consider who will receive those other rankings.  Number 2 and 3 votes still keep you in the
    race.  Those pesky  5th and 6th place votes really
    bring down a score quickly! 


    So, if a nominee is very polarizing and has a lot of haters out there, just a handful of them can quickly dissolve their lead.

     

    If I’m tabulating this incorrectly, please let me know.

     

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    Lance
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    #259924

    BTW – I’m using just 100 voters for these examples for simplicity.

    Here is another example that is more realistic, analyzing just two vote getters:

    1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
    1st Nom: 60 10 10 7 8 5 60+20+30+28+40+30=208
    2nd Nom: 15 65 20 0 0 0 15+130+60=205

    If you only looked at the scores for the 1st NOM you would probably be shocked if they didn’t win, but with this scoring system a nominee with a strong amount of 2nd and 3rd place votes can still win.

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    Lance
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    #259925

    So, when analyzing who is going to win, I believe it is essential to not only think about who will have the most support but who will have the most detractors.  Just a handful of haters can dissolve a nominee’s lead very quickly.  

    Specifically, it’s important to ask ourselves:

    Does the category have a tight race with a lot of polarizing nominees but one likable solid performer?  This could apply to the supporting comedy categories and especially Katherine Joosten.

    If there is a tight race between two people, who is most likely not to have 5th and 6th place votes?  This could apply to Bryan Cranston and Damian Lewis with Cranston probably having more haters who think he’s won too much already.

    Does the category have a couple of really weak nominees that will clearly take up the 5th and 6th place slots and keep the frontrunner safe?  This was probably the case with Hamm and Cavanaugh in Guest Comedy Actor.

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    JayDF
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    #259926

    Thanks Lance…this is a pretty interesting study.  Math makes my head hurt!

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    That Don Guy
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    #259927

    Do we know that they use a 1-2-3-4-5-6 low total wins (which would be the same as a 6-5-4-3-2-1 high total wins if everybody lists all six nominees on their ballots) system for any of the categories?

    What if a category uses a Single Transferrable Vote method, where each round of counting consists of counting the highest-place vote among those nominees not already eliminated, and if nobody has a majority, eliminating the nominee with the fewest votes in that round?
    (Well, actually, in that case, it’s still possible for a nominee with no #1 votes to win, if there is at least one other nominee with no #1 votes that has the “first” nominee as a significant number of its #2 votes.)

    The only thing the rules say about final voting is, “Peer groups determine the judging systems for their branch. Emmy judging can be a
    ratings-score system based on categories of evaluation, or preferential voting in which the nominations are ranked.”

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    Lance
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    #259928

    Do we know that they use a 1-2-3-4-5-6 low total wins (which would be the same as a 6-5-4-3-2-1 high total wins if everybody lists all six nominees on their ballots) system for any of the categories?

    The Wrap has a good article covering the basics:

    http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/emmy-ballots-heres-what-happens-next-28041

    Steve Pond covers this near the end:

    “In the newly-merged category of Outstanding Miniseries or Made for
    Television Movie, Emmy organizers have decided that it’s not fair to
    have voters weigh miniseries against movies head-to-head. Instead,
    voters are asked to judge each nominee on its own merits, and rate it on
    a scale of one-to-five. The show with the highest average wins.

    In the so-called “non-competitive” categories, which include art
    direction, picture editing and some of the non-fiction programming
    awards, panelists are asked only to vote yes or no; any achievement that
    receives 90 percent yes votes takes home an Emmy.”

    Very interesting stuff!  I doubt it, but I wonder if the all the categories in the Outstanding Miniseries or Made for Television Movie use this system.  If they do, it sort of erases any advantage a mini-series actor might have in having more screen time.

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    That Don Guy
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    #259929

    The Wrap has a good article covering the basics:

    “In the so-called “non-competitive” categories, which include art
    direction, picture editing and some of the non-fiction programming
    awards, panelists are asked only to vote yes or no; any achievement that
    receives 90 percent yes votes takes home an Emmy.”

    Actually, there are two kinds of “non-competitive” category, and one of them can be competitive:

    Areas – while the “90% rule” applies (and, IIRC, there were two categories this year where it did), if no nominee gets a 90% yes vote, then it becomes competitive, and the one with the most yes votes gets an Emmy – unless it doesn’t get at least 50%, in which case that category is ignored that year.  The last time this happened was in 2009, and, in fact, the two categories that had no winners were not mentioned at all at the Creative Arts ceremony nor listed in the press release of winners.

    Juried awards – most juried awards don’t have nominations; instead, each entry is given a yes or no vote, and, if I read the rules correctly, any entry with a :”yes” vote from the head of the judging panel and at least a 11/12 majority of “yes” votes of the total panel gets an Emmy.  (Again, it is possible to have no Emmys given out in a juried category.)  The one exception to “no nominations for juried categories” is choreography; no, I don’t know either why it’s not an Area (in fact, I think it was an Area until a few years ago).

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