September 8, 2016 at 7:01 pm #1201919098
Which categories have you guys been struggling the most with in this final stretch of Emmy predictions?
Some of mine:
Actor in a Comedy Series – Tambor vs Anderson.
Guest Actor in a Comedy Series – Larry David vs Martin Mull vs Tracy Morgan… I actually think Morgan did a better job acting than David, and he has a strong narrative, but David has the hype. Mull could win in a Veep sweep.
Writing in a Drama Series – I’m not sold on GoT winning this. Mr. Robot, Downton Abbey and The Americans could win.
Actress in a Drama Series – looks like it’s Viola vs Robin, but can we say that for sure?
What are yours?September 8, 2016 at 8:09 pm #1201919113
The drama supporting races. Right now I have Game of Thrones benefiting from its possible sweep. It’s crazy that Kit Harington could win this. Nothing against him, but it seems like fools gold with how these acting awards traditionally don’t favor pretty people. That category is already a dumpster fire, but I do think that Michael Kelly has the best episode there if that means anything. And if House of Cards does well with the actors (it really could win for its leads and guests), he could be part of it. Lena Heady makes the most of her limited screentime and that is what great supporting acting is all about, so I’m going to stop overthinking it and go with her. Maura Tierney would get my vote because she gets the chances to play many colors in her episode. I do feel though that all of those women could win.September 8, 2016 at 8:57 pm #1201919124
I am torn with drama supporting actress between smith and header and I think zimmer will upset
drama actress is a four horse race in my opinion between Davis, Wright, Danes, and RusselSeptember 8, 2016 at 9:19 pm #1201919132
Comedy Supporting Actor. I think I am predicting Anderson but I can easily see 5 of the nominees winning.September 8, 2016 at 10:04 pm #1201919137
Drama Guest Actress
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2008) – Slumdog Hits the Oscar JackpotSeptember 8, 2016 at 10:15 pm #1201919147
I have no idea whats going to happen with Comedy Supporting Actor. But I do know that Anderson has no shot of winning (even though he deserves it).September 8, 2016 at 11:43 pm #1201919154
The only one without a chance in that category is Braugher, the others are very much in race.September 9, 2016 at 5:33 am #1201919376
For me, it is still Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie. I seriously think it could be any of the nominees: breakthrough performer Brown, overdue Laurie, Critics’ Choice Award winner Plemons, ’90s nostalgia-centric Schwimmer, comeback kid (again) Travolta, or scene stealer Woodbine. I’ve got Plemons to win right now based on the Critics’ Choice Award, residual recent Friday Night Lights and Breaking Bad love, and his new role in Other People, in addition to a great performance, but nothing would really shock me in this category.September 9, 2016 at 6:03 am #1201919398
Supporting Actor Limited: Whenever I think logically, I presume that vote-splitting is going to give Hugh Laurie a win but all this passion around Sterling K. Brown makes me wonder whether he can do it anyway.
Drama Guest Actress: Laurie Metcalf or Ellen Burstyn. I can make arguments for both. If Metcalf didn’t have 3 noms I never have predicted her but clearly there is some love for her this year.
Drama Directing: Again, I am really unsure about vote-splitting potentially occurring. On the one hand, there is a clear Thrones choice in Battle of the Bastards. On the other, they split enough that voters get sentimental and choose the Downton finale.
Drama Actress: Currently predicting Davis but I find the arguments for Wright just as valid. And then there is Keri Russell, who for all we know stormed the nominations in The Americans breakthrough.
Mini Series Directing and Writing: Vote Splitting! It’s From the Ashes vs. All the Way vs. Loplop and From the Ashes vs. Night Manager
Comedy Actor: Transparent has lost buzz while Black-ish is on the rise. Can Anderson overcome Tambor due to new passion voting?
Comedy Supporting Actor: In my eyes, anyone could win.September 9, 2016 at 11:28 am #1201919556
I have no idea whats going to happen with Comedy Supporting Actor. But I do know that Anderson has no shot of winning (even though he deserves it).
That makes no sense to me. The actor from Kimmy has no shot at winning.
Baskets has no other support in other categories, and while Kimmy did underperform this year, particularly with Jane Krakowski and the Guest categories (Even though you could argue that they got snubbed because they submitted way too many actors there like Louie did in 2014), Burgess had a bigger role this year on a show that they like more than BasketsSeptember 9, 2016 at 1:15 pm #1201919589
Burgess’ submission is a real clunker, though.
I suspect pretty much everyone who put Anderson on their nominating ballot will be supporting him for the win.
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2008) – Slumdog Hits the Oscar JackpotSeptember 9, 2016 at 5:59 pm #1201919657
I had kind of settled on Kit for Drama Supporting Actor but the more I think about that category, the less confident I am. Kit would need most of Dinklage’s votes from last year to move to him. Why would they do that? These are the Emmys — you can usually sense fatigue from nominations, which is not the case. On the other hand, I can see Kit taking enough votes away from Dinklage to prevent him from winning. Yes, GoT has Drama Series locked, but it is not the kind of show that translates into acting wins, especially with the new voting system. The category screams “upset”.
I actually think we could be in for something very strange. OJ could win Limited Series and Actress, but lose Directing, Writing, Actor and Supporting Actor. GoT could win Drama Series and Directing, but lose Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Writing. Veep could win Comedy Series and Actress, but lose Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Directing and Writing. I would not be surprised AT ALL if all these things happened. These alleged unstoppable frontrunners could turn out pretty weak in terms of sweeping.September 13, 2016 at 12:23 am #1201921531
Jay Roach has a perfect record, having won both the Emmy (tape system) and the DGA (popular vote) for his first two HBO movies: Recount and Game Change.
Those Recount wins are huge. First is that Jay Roach of 2008 is different from Jay Roach of 2016. Jay Roach of 2016 has directed an Oscar-nominated film and has several Emmys from prestige projects like Game Change. Jay Roach of 2008 was known for only two things: the Austin Powers series and the Meet the Parents series. And despite this lack of pedigree, he still overcame the most dominant miniseries in Emmy history: John Adams, which won thirteen other Emmys and whose director would go on to defeat David Fincher for the Oscar just two years later.
Ryan Murphy on the other hand is incapable of winning a popular vote. He won the Emmy for directing Glee, but the DGA went with Modern Family instead. Gold Derby tipped him to get his DGA for The Normal Heart, but he lost that one too. So, does the Ryan Murphy name actually mean anything to the directors’ branch? Maybe not.
What gives me pause is how beloved American Crime Story is. Twenty-three nominations and five wins at the Creative Arts (mostly undeserved) are huge. All the Way could not even win a makeup award. And where All the Way has zero writing or editing nominations, American Crime Story has three in each. It also helps that Ryan Murphy is seen as the driving force behind the show, even though he did not write it. That is a rarity for a television series and since the Emmys love this show so much, you would think that they would want to pay their respects. The new system especially has paved the way for sweep mentality. Look no further than Game of Thrones upsetting the Mad Men finale in writing. Mad Men even went on to get WGA, but Emmy voters got so caught up in their own echo chamber that Game of Thrones was able to sweep over a proven favourite name.
But vote-splitting could still do Ryan Murphy in. We are seeing in the acting races how journeymen are getting their due (Regina King, Margo Martindale); Anthony Hemingway fits that bill. The man has worked as a director, assistant director or producer for two decades on dozens of series. This is his first nomination, but he has probably worked with just about every voter in the branch and might be a more agreeable choice than the polarizing Ryan Murphy anyway to many. And then John Singleton is a two-time Oscar nominee who has worked almost exclusively in film, so he has cachet that feeds into television’s inferiority complex.
And John Singleton has the title. Three episodes from the show were nominated for editing: the pilot, an episode from the middle of the season and the finale. Put like that, the winner obviously would have been the pilot or at least the finale, but it was actually the random middle episode because it had a flashy title: “The Race Card”. Nobody knows what “From the Ashes of Tragedy” means. The same goes for “Manna from Heaven” by Hemingway. Singleton has “The Race Card” in his pocket. Do voters care about names of directors or names of episodes more? Seeing as the editor of “The Race Card” was literally the nominee with the least name recognition in the category, titles seem to matter a great deal. Its editor was the only of the five nominees without a past ACE or Emmy nomination or win and only had one prior editor credit: the one-and-done cancelled CBS drama Stalker. I cannot even tell from Google if this person is a man or a woman!
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