COMEDY LEAD ACTING Predictions & Analysis

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  • Trent
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    #253026

    Use this thread to discuss the categories of Best Comedy Actor and Best Comedy Actress.

    Please be sure to post your predictions and KEEP THEM UPDATED in the Gold Derby predictions center, which many people in the entertainment industry keep a close eye on.

    http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/events/emmy-awards-2012.html

    Submissions:

    BEST COMEDY ACTOR:
    Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock (“Live from Studio 6H”)
    Don Cheadle – House of Lies (“Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments”)
    Louis CK – Louie (“Duckling”)
    Jon Cryer – Two and a Half Men (“Frodo’s Headshots”)
    Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm (“Palestinian Chicken”)
    Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory (“The Werewolf Transformation”)

    BEST COMEDY ACTRESS:
    Zooey Deschanel – New Girl (“Bad in Bed”)
    Lena Dunham – Girls (“She Did”)
    Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie (“Disneyland Sucks”)
    Tina Fey – 30 Rock (“The Tuxedo Begins”)
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep (“Tears”)
    Melissa McCarthy – Mike and Molly (“The Dress”)
    Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation (“Win, Lose or Draw”)

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    Maxwell Grey
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    #253028

    After just finishing watching all of the tapes here is what I thought:

    Tina Fey: In this episode she acts like a Joker and is dressed like an old lady. Sounds like a good idea, and it was. Unfortunately, I had seen previous comments raving her performance and that ended up with me having too high expecations and ending a liitle disappointed. Most of my laughs came from Jane Krakowski storyline. Overall it was a good submission, but not as good to win her an Emmy.

    Zooey Deschanel: This episode was fantastic. Zooey embraced her character and it ended out as a terrific submission. Her scenes were spot on and at the end of the episode I found myself rooting for her and her relationship, which I found weird since I dont watch this show. I can see her getting up and accepting that Emmy! 

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus: Julia was superb. Her comedic timing is so good! She is the clear front runner, what else can I say?

    Melissa McCarthy:
     She is truly the only bright spot in an otherwise terrible show. But now, I can see why she won last year and why she may repeat. Melissa can work wtih whatever you give her, and make it funny and good. And she also has the adventage, that she completely outshines all of her cast members. Plus, she got to do some physical comedy, which she is great at.

    Amy Poehler: Benefiting from a great script, and what could have been a series finale (IMO) Amy with a great finale scene she did really good. But im not sure shes a front runner. People have been praising for this role and I could see why, but I’m not if this is her year. I had never seen Parks and Rec before, so I don’t worship Amy, like I did with Carell. But you can try next year Amy.

    Lena Dunham: I had never seen “Girls” before, and boy do I regret it! What an amazing episode and Lena did an outstanding job directing it. I enjoyed her subtle acting. But I think she could have found something better to submit. Great job, but this is a hell of a tough year… so maybe she’ll win for writing or directing?

    Eddie Falco: “Disneyland Sucks” yeah? So do this tape.

    Predictions:
    1: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
    2: Melissa McCarthy
    3: Zooey Deschanel (my personal favorite)
    4: Amy Poehler
    5:Lena Dunham
    6: Tina fey
    7: Eddie Falco 

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    efficiency
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    #253029

    LEAD ACTOR
    1. David
    2. Parsons
    3. CK
    4. Baldwin
    5. Cheadle
    6. Cryer 

    LEAD ACTRESS
    1. Louis-Dreyfus
    2. Poehler
    3. Deschanel
    4. Fey
    5. McCarthy
    6. Falco
    7. Dunham 

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    Paul Vargo
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    #253030

    Lead Actor:

    1. Parsons
    2. CK
    3. David
    4. Chealde
    5. Cryer
    6. Baldwin

    Lead Actress

    1. Louis-Dreyfus
    2. Poehler
    3. McCarthy
    4. Deschanel
    5. Fey
    6. Dunham
    7. Falco

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    Renaton
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    #253031

    I’m predicting Louis C.K. and Deschanel, but I think Larry David (oops! EDIT) and Julia Louis Dreyfus would be very likely winners too. In both categories the competition is very close, I think.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #253032

    LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

    If I were a voter, I wouldn’t consider anybody besides Poehler, Fey and Dreyfus for this win. All the others had their moments, but nowhere near as great as those three tapes were.

    EDIE FALCO: this wouldn’t even qualify as a good tape for the drama category. There’s zero comedy in it, in a year when she had a lot. This was the best season of Nurse Jackie, she more than earned this nomination, but anything towards the end of the season would’ve been a much better choice.

    LENA DUNHAM: she should’ve gone with the pilot. This episode is split in so many different characters, actors and scenes it’s just ridiculous that she considered it to be her submission. Things come up great for her in the last 10 minutes of the episode, but it’s still not as strong as everybody else. The last few minutes are just her on a train.

    ZOOEY DESCHANEL: I would place her over McCarthy, but I know voters won’t. Zooey was great in this episode, but there was too much of Schmidt to split this episode almost equally between him and Jess. Deschanel rocked several scenes, most of them during the seduction part of her second try with Paul, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.

    MELISSA MCCARTHY: I always forget that she’s playing this character with such a weird voice from the one she normally uses. I hate this show so much, but whatever, that’s not what we’re here for. I think the episode is great for her, last year’s tape was better though. She has several scenes of pure traditional comedy which I’m sure will only help her and she gets into a ton of situations that are comedy gold, even if I didn’t like them that much, voters could eat it up. She’s definitely in it for a repeat but I just don’t see it happening thanks to her competition.

    ——————

    This is were it gets tricky for me.

    TINA FEY: I think I would vote for her. I just see it as such an impressive and creative performance, even if she’s basically doing a parody of The Joker for half of her screentime. Everybody else is performing in their usual way, but this is a different Liz for most of the episode. It’s just hilarious, I loved her scene with Kenneth near the end, that ridiculous rooftop scene is so perfectly done by both her and Baldwin as were the subway rides. I wish she could win for this, just to show that the Emmys aren’t always about buzz, first seasons, name checking and overdue people…but they are. Tina Fey must have zero chance of winning this year, but I think she should.

    AMY POEHLER: this is another fantastic tape. It might not be filled with comedy, but it’s filled with a sense of heart and dedication on Poehler’s part. It’s a culmination of a season where her character went through all this process and it finally happened for her. When there was comedy, she nailed it, when there was sweetness, she nailed it and when there was sentiment, she handled it perfectly. I’m not fanboying here, I seriously think she’ll loose, but those two times she got teary eyed, you could tell it wasn’t Poehler the actress who can cry on cue, but Poehler the owner of this character who finally made it. She’s outdone by both Fey and Dreyfus in terms of comedy, but I think the range is all hers. I have a feeling she’ll loose, but this is miles better than that underwhelming submission from last year.

    JULIA LOUIS DREYFUS: competing with Poehler in that obligatory “range” part of the category is Dreyfus who I believe is the winner this year. I wouldn’t have picked Tears, I would’ve gone with Baseball, but this is still a great showcase for her. There’s plenty of comedy, there’s a lot of Dreyfusness in it and we know the Emmys love that. There are a couple of scenes that are clear winners, the first one being the first “tears” part with the endorsing discussion, then there’s the great, funny speech, then there’s another perfect scene in her office. Even the expression we’re left with as the credits roll is a winner. It just keeps building up, it keeps coming, it’s an episode, like Poehler and like Fey, that just doesn’t slow down.

    Once agian, I think Dreyfus is the winner, Poehler is in second place and Fey might be down on the bottom with Falco, but I know she’s on the top with that fantastic tape.

    Prediction rankings:
    1. Julia Louis Dreyfus
    2. Amy Poehler
    3. Melissa McCarthy
    4. Zooey Deschanel
    5. Lena Dunham
    6. Tina Fey
    7. Edie Falco

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    Laactingnyc
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    #253033

    Rankings:

    1.Amy Poehler
    2.Julia Louis Dreyfus
    3.oey Deschanel
    4.Tina Fey
    5.Lena Dunham
    6.Melissa McCarthy
    7.Edie Falco

    1. Larry David
    2. Louie C.K.
    3. Jim Parsons
    4. Alec Baldwin
    5. Don Cheadle
    6. Jon Cryer

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    Duke Silver
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    #253034

    Rankings:

    ACTRESS
    1. Amy Poehler
    1. Julia Louis- Dreyfus
    3. Lena Dunham
    4. Tina Fey
    5. Zoey Deschanel
    6. Edie Falco
    7. Melissa McCarthy

    ACTOR
    1. Louie C.K.
    2. Jim Parsons
    3. Larry David
    4. Alec Baldwin
    5. Don Cheadle
    6. Jon Cryer

    I put both JLD and Poehler as #1 because they both are the frontrunners here. Their submissions are the best in the category. JLD is beloved by the Emmy’s, having been nominated 12 other times, winning twice. She clearly is an Emmy favorite, and her show has a Series nomination, which always helps. Poehler is the overdue winner. She has been nominated twice before for both this and SNL. She also has a writing nomination, meaning she could also get votes based on that. Poehler also was the mastermind of last year’s pagent thing, which could help. The upset would be Lena Dunham. Depending on how much the Emmy’s love to give her show victories, she very well could be this year’s upset. 

    Louie C.K. is an easy choice here. He has seven total nominations this year alone, including in both writing and directing. That is an impressive slate, and the Emmy’s could give him a win here to make up for the snub of Louie in the Series category. However, Jim Parsons can never really be ruled out. He beat last year’s far and away frontrunner, Steve Carell. Add the fact that Jonny Galecki isn’t there to take votes, and he could win. As always, Larry David is a potential upset. 
     

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    Emmyfan
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    #253035

    Just a comment/observation.  People have commented more or less about “Amy’s show was not nominated for Comedy Series so there is no support for her to win the Emmy in the Lead Actress category.”    This is an argument that I hear a lot when it comes to Oscars, but I do not think that it plays a factor at all when it comes to the Emmys.

    I am still going through all of the submissions, but I have seen Amy Poehler’s submission and I think that she would be a worthy winner for that submission. 

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    efficiency
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    #253036

    Seeing it’s such a tight race between Poehler and Louis-Dreyfus, is this year the year for a tie?

    Unlikely, I know… but perhaps more likely than, say, the Oscars for example. There are a lot less voters for each category. Whereas at the Oscars it is the entire actors branch.

    Approximately how many people vote in each category? Rob, Boomer, Tom… help us out? 

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    Irishmovielover4ever
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    #253037

    Since these sepeare threads opened up I’ve decided to post new ones here as well as re post old ones. This one is for lead actor in a comedy series which is the least competitve category because there less male leads in comedy lately

    1. Louis C.K., Louie (“Duckling”)
    2. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (“The Werewolf Transformation”)
    3. Larry David, Curb Your Entusiasm (“Palestinian Chicken”)
    4. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (“Live from Studio 6H”)
    5. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (“Frodo’s Headshots”)
    6. Don Cheadle, House of Lies (“Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments”)

    Academy Award nominee Cheadle when announced was going to do comedy on Showtime you think that he would be a lock to win but if you watch the pilot which he submitted you would know that her will not win because of the horrible writing and how the show feels it’s so much better then it is. To me he was never funny only very annoying throuigh out with really no saving qualities. Cheadle to me got in because this category is so un competitive.

    Previous supporting actor winner Cryer moves to lead because he must have known he would have an easiyer time getting into lead. In hi submtted episode we see him come back from the stress clinic and everything in his life seemed to be horrible losing everything and sure it was funny but all along yopu had to know it was not real and this is why I found the episode sort of nothing special evern though he was better than cheadle I cannot see him winning.

    Previous Winner Baldwin submitted the worst episode last probably tp try help Carrell win but we all know that did not work. This year he choose the live show episode which I thought was his best episode, it’s as if he hosted SNL because he gets to say so many characters and he does it so well where I cannot even single out one to talk about because they are all funny. The problem he has is that the episode is more ensemble with only a few sketches focusing mostly on him with other actors at times being better.

    Emmy Winner David of course plays a version of himself on Curb and in his submitted episode this year it’s probably the best of the season as and episode but maybe not for him. Sure he is funny but sometimes that works aganist him because his type of acting I do not see winning and emmy, in the episode he is very mean at times and that’s a negative for him. I see David winning if voters feel he is overdue for an acting win.

    Current holder of the award for the last two years winner Parsons, he was smart to submit the episode he submitted this year because if any one knows Sheldon got very mean this year and in the episode he is funny but so different then the evil villian sheldon has become. In the episode we see sheldon when he does not get a haircut he goes more crazy like getting bangos which is the funniesy thing he does when talking with the bangos, also he gets some relly funny one linners like “I Feel like a teen heartthrobe”. I could see Parsons win but I hope they give the award to some new blood other then give him a thrid win.

    My personal choice and prediction is the Seven time nominee this year Louis C.K. who’s show may not have got into series is so deserving that I hope voters five him as many awards as they can to make up for that fact. He submitted the hour long episode where he goes to perform for the troops but of course to bring it back to the theme of the show his daughters put a little duckling in his bag. C.K. is best when he mixes comedy with drama and he stand up sessions are funny as hell but then his scenes with his daughters and the small duckling are very heartwarming and I feel like voters will like that.

    C.K. is my prediction and wish but I could see Parsons winning again, and the dark horse being David who has never won acting.

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    Irishmovielover4ever
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    #253038

    I’m reposting these here:

    Like with the supporting guys I just finished watching the SEVEN nominees for lead actress in a comedy series, all I want to say is any of these women would be worthy of the win because they all submitted amazing episodes.

    1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (“Tears”)
    2. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (“Win, Lose or Draw”)
    3. Lena Dunham, Girls (“She Did”)
    4. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl (“Bad in Bed”)
    5. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (“Disneyland Sucks”)
    6. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (“The Dress”)
    7. Tina Fey, 30 Rock (“The Tuxedo Begins”)

    Fey a previous winner in this category has like every other nominee a tape worthy of the win. In the episode she plays a crazy old women (I would say based on Ledger’s Joker but more funny) she is trying to show that NY cannot be changed. It’s a lot of comedic performance changing her voice, wearing the crazy costumes and giving monologues opposite Alec Baldwin that just had me cracking up the secong time I watched this episode.

    Last Year’s Winner McCarthy maybe not as good a tape as last year still is not in last place because when her showrunners give her the material she shines when being crazy. With the character trying to loose weight for her wedding turns out to be gold. Her shining moments are spread throughout the episode with scenes like trashing a car and Molly going to prison.

    Previous Winner Falco got another nomination for her self proclaimed not funny performance but wow it is amazing performance she gave this season as a whole. Her submitted episode maybe not as strong as what came up later in the season still is strong because this season she went of her meds and had her best season of all. The thing that hurts her as I said is she is not comedic but dramatic and that’s what I respect and I’m glad she got the nomination.

    Deschanel recieves her first nomination for her breakout turn as super adorkable Jess in new comedy New Girl. In her submitted we see her relationship with her current boyfriend getting to the stage where the word “SEX” comes up and she gets nervous and trys to do some new things like watching porn, buying sexy underwear and many other things. When she finally gets to the act it is one of the weirdest but hilarious things I’ve seen as she goes through accents to act for her boyfriend and I could see her as a spoiler if voters think Jess is a funny character.

    The breakout girl of the spring tv season was Dunham who has been nominated for 4 emmys herself. For acting she submitted the finale which I thought was a perfect submission because it was her best acting for this not professional actress. She does most of her scenes with boyfriend Adam and those scenes are funny but dramatic at the same time showing the layers of this relationship, then the final 2 minutes as Hannah goes to eat cake on the beach is so clever for hannah showing all she has in this moment is cake. I could see Dunham but I feel she will win writing.

    SNL alum Poehler was my wish to win last year but she returns for a third time and this time she submitted the season finale which is mostly about her. In this episode we see Knope being nervous about not winning and when she first loses her reaction is priceless because she is grief striction. Then when in the end she wins her speech at the end is given with a lot of pride and happyness. I could see Poehler win if voters, viewers and everyone if the TV academy knows that she is SO overdue that it is not even funny.

    My personal choice and prediction either way is Louis-Dreyfus who returns to tv with a HBO comedy where she plays the vice president. In the finale which is her submitted episode she shines because if you want to talk about reactions how about crying which is want she does so easily making it the funniest thing in this category, not only does she cry twice but like poehler she says the F word and unlike poehler it’s HBO which of course is cable allowing people to curse and she is genius at this and that is one of the reasons she should win. If the voters really look at episodes Dreyfus will win.

    Dreyfus is my prediction and personal pick, I could see Poehler win for being SO OVERDUE and finally the dark horse being Deschanel if voters fall in love with her awkward charm she has. As I said at the start all the women nominated are worthy I mean there is SEVEN nominees.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #253039

    LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

    Surprisingly, everybody actually did a good job at submitting…

    DON CHEADLE: obviously the least funny and most annoying of the bunch just has to be Jon Cryer, right? Well, no, it’s Cheadle. Sure we get a very Don Cheadle performance, a very good one, very well acted, but everytime he looked at the camera and spoke to it I wanted to vote for Jon Cryer to win this and every other Emmy he’s been nominated for. The tape is just “ok”, but with so many laughs coming out of everybody else’s tapes, he can only be the winner if voters go for the movie “star”.

    JON CRYER: this is a nice episode for Cryer and if you’re into Two and a Half Men, then it might even be a winning tape. I doubt anybody is into this show anymore even if he keeps being nominated. But channeling Charlie Harper worked well for both Cryer and Alan and he really does have a very “lead” tape this time. 

    ALEC BALDWIN: I found this episode to very badly done, it was just so weird putting everybody in the same room for a live show and having them do all these things that are so complicated that Baldwin ends up sweating his head off for the last 5-10 minutes of his screentime. I think he did a wonferful job here, but him reading lines in such an obvious way was just wrong. There’s also the issue of too many people getting a lot to do. Again, nice tape, even a winning tape some might think, but I think his time passed. I do believe next year he might have some sort of final season buzz to be able to win again. 

    LOUIS C.K: I love Duckling. This episode was very well done and I think he has a better shot at winning for directing it than for acting. Sure this is Louis C.K doing his cute, sweet, annoyed face thing he does in every episode, he has a few nice moments with the daughters, the cheerleader and that awesome expression combo when he thought the helicopter would crash. Plus a cool 40 minutes of running time. But in the improv/comedian category, Larry David has him beat easily and in the acting showcase department everybody can beat him too. However, this is still a good tape to compete with if there’s any need within the academy to reward C.K the actor. I don’t think there is, but who knows.

    JIM PARSONS: there’s nothing here that screams Emmy in the way his last three submissions did. He has a couple of nice scenes and some great one liners but I didn’t get the automatic “moment” or the Emmy bait gimmick of his previous tapes. However, it’s still pretty funny, he has the bongo routine that could work like the drunk one did last year, he has this ridiculous idea that he’s a rebel or “too Hollywood” with his hair that is very funny, so voters certainly do have an excuse to reward him yet again. This is exactly the type of character that gets rewarded at the Emmys more than two times, so maybe he can actually repeat. I don’t understand why GoldDerby is rejecting this idea so much, as if everybody is affraid that admitting that he’s great in his episode will jinx C.K’s chances.

    LARRY DAVID: this is the winning tape for me. For years it’s been clear that David is a terrific actor, at least in the context of his show. You never see flaws in his performance like those you normally saw in Ray Romano or Jerry Seinfeld and you don’t see him not being un-challenged like Louis C.K. Larry David gets to do a lot here and once again he has a winning submission that I hope can really do the trick in a year when nobody else really has THE tape. Every other actor in this is better than David and should be able to out-perform him and yet they can’t, because he’s that good. The last time this happened with David, Tony Shalhoub robbed him in the same way Parsons could do this year, but they keep accepting Curb whenever it comes back, they keep rewarding this show with key nominations but never actually let it win a big one. I really believe this is his year with Parsons and possibly C.K as huge spoilers.

    In terms of improv/comedians being rewarded, which is rare at the Emmys, it’s obvious that it’s C.K who has the buzz, but maybe, just maybe, Larry David will finally win. And there’s no denying that he has the best tape.

    Tape Rankings
    1. Larry David
    2. Jim Parsons
    3. Louis C.K
    4. Alec Baldwin
    5. Jon Cryer
    6. Don Cheadle

    Predictions ranking
    1. Larry David
    2. Jim Parsons
    3. Louis C.K
    4. Don Cheadle
    5. Alec Baldwin
    6. Jon Cryer

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #253040

    MOST FASCINATING WILD CARDS IN THIS COMEDY ACTRESS CATEGORY:

    Tina Fey — She gives a classic Lucille Ball-in-wacky-vaudeville-costume turn. A knockout! It helps that she goes in and out of the crazy lady bit — so that we see both personalities (range). This is like playing twins, split personalities — think of how many times this achieves automatic wins at the daytime Emmys. Also, it’s just so much damned fun, the whole eppy. A delightful surprise. She could easily win this.

    Lena Dunham — Yes, she’s barely in the first two-thirds of her eppy, yes, but then she lands like a nuclear bomb with a nervous breakdown on the street at night while shrieking at her boyfriend that she’s a fat misfit terrified of life. Powerful stuff. Then her big finale on the beach at Coney Island at dawn is gripping TV — packed with empathy. She can win, especially since what she lacks in this episode in terms of face time and range she makes up in The Cool Factor. Also, this episode has an alluring advantage that appeals strongly to voters (actors, casting agents) who all want to do more than just act. As Lena licks the wedding cake frosting lustilly off her fingers as she sits on the beach in the final scene, a big panel pops up — “Directed by Lena Dunham.” Then another big panel: “Written by Lena Dunham.” Then another: “Produced by Lena Dunham.” Those three panels so strategically placed can impact voters tremendously since there are no other names on the screen and the panels hit at the peak dramatic moment of the eppy. Don’t pooh-pooh the impact they can have. No other nominee has this edge. Tina Fey’s credits aren’t presented with the same sledgehammer effect.

    Edie Falco — Ah, yes, the wild card factor of substance abuse in rehab-happy Hollywood where everybody talks in 12 Step jargon all day long. This episode isn’t funny, but it has powerful dramatic effect as Falco goes through withdrawal upon entering rehab.

    Among the other contenders, Julia Louis-Dreyfus can win this — she’s wonderful and even has TWO crying scenes (Amy Poehler only has one), but she’s in that cluster of other contenders with traditional episode entries. Fey, Falco and Dunham are wild cards that really make this race exciting and as unpredictable as all hell.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #253041

    Tina Fey’s submission is so good that IMDB already declared her the winner…

    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0275486/awards

    Obviously a mistake, they’re probably just uploading the nominees, the Hatfield & McCoy’s men are the only nominees shown in their categories…

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