COMEDY SERIES, WRITING, DIRECTING Predictions & Analysis

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  • Trent
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    #252973

    Use this thread to discuss the categories of Bests Comedy Series, Writing and Directing for a Comedy Series and any other non-acting comedy category.

    Please be sure to post your predictions and KEEP THEM UPDATED in the Gold Derby predictions center, which many people in the entertainment industry keep a close eye on.

    Submissions:

    BEST COMEDY SERIES:


    30 ROCK * Season 6 * NBC

    Tape A: “Idiots Are People Two!” & “Idiots Are People Three!”

    Tape B: “The Tuxedo Begins” & “St. Patrick’s Day”

    Tape C: “Meet the Woggels!” & “Murphy Brown Lied to Us”

    THE BIG BANG THEORY * Season 5 * CBS

    Tape A: “The Hawking Excitation” & “The Countdown Reflection”

    Tape B: “The Russian Rocket Reaction” & “The Beta Test Initiation”

    Tape C: “The Ornithophobia Diffusion” & “The Shiny Trinket Maneuver”

    CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM * Season 8 * HBO

    Tape A: “Vow of Silence” & “The Hero”

    Tape B: “Palestinian Chicken” & “Car Periscope”

    Tape C: “Mister Softee” & “Larry vs. Michael J. Fox”

    GIRLS * Season 1 * HBO

    Tape A: “Pilot” & “Vagina Panic”

    Tape B: “Hannah’s Diary” & “Hard Being Easy”

    Tape C: “Leave Me Alone” & “She Did”

    MODERN FAMILY * Season 3 * ABC

    Tape A: “Door to Door” & “Aunt Mommy”

    Tape B: “Leap Day” & “Baby on Board”

    Tape C: “Punkin’ Chunkin'” & “Egg Drop”

    VEEP * Season 1 * HBO

    Tape A: “Pilot” & “Catherine”

    Tape B: “Nicknames” & “Baseball”

    Tape C: “Full Disclosure” & “Tears”


    BEST COMEDY WRITING:
    Community – Chris McKenna – “Remedial Chaos Theory”
    Girls – Lena Dunham – “Pilot”
    Louie – Louis CK – “Pregnant”
    Parks and Recreation – Amy Poehler – “The Debate”
    Parks and Recreation – Michael Schur – “Win, Lose or Draw”

    BEST COMEDY DIRECTING:
    Curb Your Enthusiasm – Robert B. Weide – “Palestinian Chicken”
    Girls – Lena Dunham – “She Did”
    Louie – Louis CK – “Duckling”
    New Girl – Jake Kasdan – “Pilot”
    Modern Family – Steven Levitan – “Baby on Board”
    Modern Family – Jason Winer – “Virgin Territory” 

     

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    Renaton
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    #252975

    Sometimes I wonder if my love for “Louie” makes me become slightly biased in the Comedy Actor category (even though I didn’t see him as a real contender to win there last year), but when it comes to the Directing category, I think him being the frontrunner actually makes a lot of sense. It’s visually ambitious in a realistic way, it has strong visual comedy, it plays a lot with sound editing (the sound of the duckling), and it has a nice mix of big, grand shots with more introspective ones and close-ups. Plus, it’s a subject matter that’s both baity and feels important. here it’s probably his best shot.

    I think C.K.’s biggest threat in this category is “Palestinian Chicken”. It’s universally beloved, it won DGA, and it’s been a while since “Curb” won anything big. There’s a chance they might wanna give it to this one. And of course, never, never underestimate “Modern Family”, and “Baby On Board” does use a lot of telenovela visual gimmicks that will probably get a lot of votes.
    The other MF episode, the pilot for “New Girl” and Lena Dunham I don’t believe to have much of a shot here though.

    In Writing, as much as I think “Girls” is an overrated show, I can’t be biased: it’s the frontrunner to win here. There are some really baity moments for writers, like the moment she gets high and asks for her parents for more money, or that scene where she steals the money left for the maid (in fact, that was one of the few scenes on this show I actually really liked). It also deals with character introduction, and defining the personalities, and some baity, showy dialogue. All done while striving for authenticity, which many voters will appreaciate. Considering Lena Dunham and the show seem to have a lot of support this year, I’m thinking this is where they will award her.

    BUT, she does have a disavantage: it’s not the funniest episode in this category. And that is what might benefit “Community” in my opinion (and not “Parks” like everyone thinks). The thing with “Remedial Chaos Theory” is that it’s high concept, but one that’s very accessible, and they make sure to have plenty of character development WHILE creating jokes. Add the detailed plots, and you have a very easy to like and admire, intricate comedy writing. I know this is the first time the Emmys nopmianted it in any of the big categories, but it’s showy and funny enough to actually beat all of the others, and I think this might be the big surprise win.

    My 3rd place would be “Win, Lose or Draw”, since it’s got a lot of heart, some funny moments, and some twists, plus a few elements that come from character constrution (like Leslie giving Ben that Washington Monument miniature figurine, for example) that will probably work very well, plus the fact that “Parks” was snubbed and there might be a felling they need to compensate that somehow. Unlike most here, if “Parks” wins I don’t think it will be “The Debate”, that lacked the emotional impact of the episode, didn’t aim for ideas and characterization like “Girls”, and didn’t have a concept as ambitious and funny as “Community” (and truth be told, I think most predict it more just so they can convince themselves they will see Amy Poehler win something).

    In fact, I put even “Pregnant” above “The Debate”, since C.K. does have his fans, and the way the episode constructs tension that keeps building and a dilemma very true and realistic to big city life (how we don’t even know who our neighbours are, and who to ask for help) to make it be just a big elaborate fart joke might work better than we think instead of just being alienating like most are anticipating. But truth be told, all of these five have a good shot at winning.

    Premature rankings:

    DIRECTING

    1. “Duckling” 
    2. “Palestinian Chicken”
    3. “Baby On Board”
    4. “Pilot”
    5. “She Did”
    6. “Virgin Territory” 

    WRITING

    1. “Pilot”
    2. “Remedial Chaos Theory”
    3. “Win, Lose or Draw”
    4. “Pregnant” 
    5. “The Debate” 

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    Duke Silver
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    #252976

    Unfortunately Modern Family is the clear frontrunner for Comedy Series. Even if it’s tapes are far worse then the other shows, it is going to win. The most likely spoilers would be either Girls or Curb Your Enthusiasm.

    For Direction, it seems as if Palestinian Chicken is the frontrunner, with Duckling as a potential upset.

    For Writing, one of the Parks and Recreation episodes probably is going to win. I say this because shows that have multiple scripts nominated often tend to win. Between the two, I would say that “Win, Lose, or Draw” has the edge. However, Girls submitted the pilot, which also gives it a good shot at winning. Due to love for Louis C.K., Pregnant is a potential upset. As good an episode as Remedial Chaos Theory was, it stands little shot at winning.

    SERIES
    1. Modern Family
    2. Curb Your Enthusiasm
    3. Girls
    4. Veep
    5. 30 Rock
    6. The Big Bang Theory

    DIRECTING
    1. “Palestinian Chicken”
    2. “Duckling”
    3. “Baby on Board”
    4. “Pilot”
    5. “Virgin Territory”
    6. “She Did”

    WRITING
    1. “Win, Lose, or Draw”
    2. “Pilot”
    3. “Pregnant”
    4. “The Debate”
    5. “Remedial Chaos Theory” 

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    probablyROB
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    #252977

    I love everyone spends the entire year talking about how tapes matter then disregard them come ceremony time.

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    Cezar Henrique Lorenzi
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    #252978

    Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series;

    1.    Louie
    – Louis C.K. (Episode “Duckling”)

    2.    Curb
    Your Enthusiasm – Robert B. Weide (Episode “Palestinian Chicken”)

    3.    Girls
    – Lena Dunham (Episode “She Did”)

    4.    Modern
    Family – Steve Levitan (Episode “Baby On Board”)

    5.    New
    Girl – Jake Kasdan (Episode “Pilot”)

    6.    Modern
    Family – Jason Winer (Episode “Virgin Territory”)

     

    Of the six
    nominees, Jason Winer is the one that has the smallest chances of winning. His
    directing in Virgin Territory is effective, but it doesn’t really feature
    incredible shots or decisions – it comes across as a pretty standard episode
    and a filler nomination, even. Sure, Modern Family is Emmy’s favorite comedy,
    but Steve Levitan’s nomination is more deserved and will probably grab more
    votes.

    The Pilot of
    New Girl is pretty nice and everybody knows the voters love to nominate and
    reward pilots for writing and directing. Still, New Girl is not a show that did
    extremely well with the academy in its first season, like other shows that won
    the award for the Pilot episode, such as Glee and Desperate Housewives, and it
    isn’t as distinctive as episodes such Pie-Lette, from Pushing Daisies. There’s
    also very little hype over it, so its chances are quite small.

    Steve Levitan,
    nominated for Modern Family’s Baby On Board, has a very nice episode and a
    deserved nomination. In this episode, we see scenes that are satirically soap-opera
    like, big and confusing, and then more heart-warming, smaller scenes, such as
    the ones in the Lily’s recital or the last scene with Cameron and Tucker, both
    of them laid on the ground. It doesn’t come across as a winning episode, but,
    being Modern Family, it definitely has its chances.

    Lena Dunham
    was nominated for directing the incredible season finale of Girls. I think she
    has a very big chance to win this – not only are her show and herself very
    appreciated by the Emmys, She Did has a lot of factors that could lead it to a
    win: the fight scene between Hannah and her boyfriend, combined with the
    romantic and beautiful scenes at the surprise wedding and the amazing indie
    shots of Hannah in the subway and the final scene at the beach. It’s an
    incredibly nice episode and very well put together.

    Robert B.
    Weide also has a big chance for directing one of the seasons’ most acclaimed episodes,
    Palestinian Chicken. The episode itself is hilarious and it has many moments
    that are Emmy-worthy for him, whether it is the confusion at the golf club, the
    dinner scene, with that comedic tension growing, the fight over the cake, the
    hilarious sex scene and, finally, the impeccable ending. The hype over this
    episode, associated with its quality, might lead him to a win.

    I think the
    winner, though, is Louis C.K. With a lot of nominations this year, the Emmy
    voters appear to really enjoy his show – or, at least, the technical qualities
    of it, since Louie, itself, wasn’t nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series.
    When I watched Duckling, I was quite sure nothing could surpass Palestinian
    Chicken. But Duckling is a very acclaimed episode, too, and I was blown away by
    the directing in it. It has, maybe, the widest range of moments, going from
    smaller and cuter ones, such as the one where Louis shows the cheerleader the
    duckling, to the bigger, tenser ones, such as when the helicopter has to land,
    the final “confront” or when Louis thought they’d be attacked. It also has
    beautiful landscapes and big shots that might help it to win.

     

    OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

     1.    Parks
    and Recreation – Amy Poehler (Episode “The Debate”)

    2.   
    Girls
    – Lena Dunham (Episode “Pilot”)

    3.    Louie
    – Louis C.K. (Episode “Pregnant”)

    4.    Community
    – Chris McKenna (Episode “Remedial Chaos Theory”)

    5.    Parks
    and Recreation – Michael Schur (Episode “Win, Lose or Draw”)

     

    That’s one of
    the toughest races because there seems to be no clear frontrunner whatsoever. I
    think that Parks and Recreation might win this, since it got two amazing
    episodes and it is a very well-received show. Michael Schur wrote a very good
    episode, that is funny, touching, poignant and remarkable. I think, though,
    that this episode might lack a unity – when I remember it, I think more of its
    bits and pieces than of its entirety. It’s probably an odd thing to say, and I
    wouldn’t be surprised if it won, but I simply think the other ones have bigger
    chances.

    Chris McKenna
    won the most original episode here, and his very satisfying nomination could
    lead to a win, but Community is still not very appreciated by Emmy voters and
    the idea of it winning one of the main categories without even having been
    nominated in others is odd. Also, it is a funny episode, but not the funniest
    of the bunch, I suppose. Still, he definitely has the chance to win because of
    the originality and awesomeness of the episode.

    I think the
    funniest episode here is Pregnant, but maybe that’s just me. Still, I think it
    has its chances, since Louis C.K. is someone the voters seem to like, the episode
    is funny at moments, but raw and sad at others and, overall, an impressive
    installment.

    Lena Dunham
    has a big chance and benefits from being the only contender here whose show was
    actually nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series. She could easily win this
    with the Pilot of her show. Even though it seems to be the least funny episode,
    it still has nice, entertaining lines, but, most importantly, it introduces the
    characters and the style that made some critics call her the “voice of her
    generation” in the best way possible. It is mesmerizing and makes you want to
    watch the next one, which is the biggest indication a Pilot succeeded. Also,
    Dunham has a lot of hype going for her, now, so she can also benefit from this.

    Ultimately, I
    think Amy Poehler’s The Debate will win. It is a very entertaining,
    well-received episode of Parks and Recreation that relies a lot on writing,
    because of the speeches and answers of the debate. Not only is it funny in its
    introductions of crazy characters in the election and also on the competition
    of Leslie and Bobby, it also features a very beautiful speech in the ending by
    Amy Poehler’s character. The episode has some hype, since it was one of the
    most expected episodes of the season of Parks and Recreation, and the
    Amy-Poehler-is-overdue factor might help it as well.

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    Renaton
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    #252979

    ^ I don’t like “Community” that much, but I thought “Remedial Chaos Theory” was the funniest in this line-up. “The Debate” isn’t that funny besides Andy’s scenes and that chopped debate scene with random lines by the candidates. And “Pregnant” is funny, but and has the most elaborate joke of all of them, but it’s mostly about the tension leading up to the fart punchline.

    “Remedial Chaos Theory” however has some strong intricate gags, like the Pierce shot, with the fire and the troll. I agree that the lack of nominations hurts it, but I think the fact there are some very detailed constrution of visual gags that are a result of characterization will result in a lot of votes, and none of the others seem to have soemthin quite like that (maybe Andy kicking the tv on “The Debate”, but it’s a quicker gag with less intricate constrution than “Remedial Chaos Theory” most memorable moments). I still think “Community” might be a spoiler based simply on how universally impressive this episode is.

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    probablyROB
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    #252980

    I always said getting the nomination was the hard part. Because Remedial Chaos Theory was possibly the best written episode in all of TV but we knew Academy members weren’t watching. Now we know they were watching this episode at least and we know that they have to watch it. I don’t see how it loses.

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    Cezar Henrique Lorenzi
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    #252981

    Community’s episode is very impressive and it’s deserving of the win. Although I wouldn’t call it the funniest of the group, I would call it the best script – actually, in this category, I wouldn’t be surprised with any of them winning, even “Win, Lose or Draw”, since there are no clear frontrunners. But I suppose not many voters really watch Community, so they may not be involved enough with the characters and what happens to them. All of the hype surrounding the episode might hurt its chances, too – it’s like watching something and knowing that it has to be one of the most genious things ever and, then, getting a little bit disappointed with it. But yes, there is no doubt about it being the most brilliant episode here and, possibly, the one that deserves to win the most, and there is a big possibility it will, but I’m still not convinced if Emmy voters will want to go that “radical”, considering that there are other worthy potential winners here.

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    Spenser Davis
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    #252982

    The writing and directing categories are actually very strong this year. I’ll be pushing for “Remedial Chaos Theory” to win Writing, and “Duckling” to win Directing, but those are both predictions made based on personal preference (which is the wrong way to predict awards).

    I have no dog in this hunt, so to speak, so any winner would be fine by me. In Writing, I think Parks & Rec or Girls might nab it, but “Pregnant” would give them an opportunity to award C.K. In Directing, C.K.’s biggest competition is Curb Your Enthusiasm, which could end up having a big year at the Emmys.

    Here’s the one prediction I will stand by: Louis C.K. is winning something.

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    probablyROB
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    #252983

    Like, I said before, the episode was too brilliant to ignore and if they did it would prove an Emmy bias. Since they nominated I believe voters agree. And the thing about it is this, even with the hype, I am yet to hear a single person not say it was worthy of the nomination. Even non-fans of the show agree it is most deserving of a win.

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    Paul Vargo
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    #252984

    Should Win for Series

    1. The Big Bang Theory
    2. Curb
    3. Morden Family
    4. Veep
    5. 30 Rock
    6. Girls

    Will Win

    1. Morden Family
    2. Curb
    3. Veep.
    4. The Big Bang Theory
    5. Girls
    6. 30 Rock

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    Christian Price
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    #252985

    Outstanding Comedy Series
    1.) Modern Family
    2.) Curb Your Enthusiasm
    3.) Girls
    4.) The Big Bang Theory
    5.) Veep
    6.) 30 Rock

    Analysis: I still think Modern Family is the frontrunner here, but not as strongly as before. The lack of writing nods shows that voters noticed that there was a decline in quality in the show, and there is a certain amount of public fatigue toward it, but voters have shown that they like this show and they have decent tapes once again. I think that the likely spoiler here is Curb. It has six hilarious tapes, and is tremendously overdue, which might push voters who are getting sick of Modern Family to vote for it. The other four shows in this category have their positives, but they really have no chance. Girls is tremendously hot and is the only nominee in series to be nominated in writing and directing. (Curb gets a pass because it’s ineligible in writing) But, it is a niche show; it appeals to a very particular demographic and it often sacrifices laughs for the story. The only series that I can think of that did that and won was Sex and the City, which is quite ironic. Big Bang has its positives, too. The fact that new actors from the show got nominated two years in a row shows that the voters admire it to a degree and it is the only traditional multi-cam here, but I think that it lacks snob appeal to a certain degree. Veep only has 3 nominations; let’s face it…you’re not going to win with thet few nods. If Parks and Rec couldn’t do it last year with nearly perfect tapes, then this show can’t do it. And, as for 30 Rock, I like this show, but it’s only here because voters can’t let it go. The two better NBC comedies were both nominated in writing, which to me shows a disconnect between the writers branch and everyone else in the system.

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    Christian Price
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    #252986

    Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
    1.) Community – “Remedial Chaos Theory”
    2.) Girls – “Pilot”
    3.) Parks and Recreation – “The Debate”
    4.) Louie – “Pregnant”
    5.) Parks and Recreation – “Win, Lose, or Draw”

    Analysis: I’m probably going to be called stupid or crazy for putting Community ahead of Lena Dunham in this race, especially when Dunham is drawing buzz, and voters haven’t loved Community anywhere else in the Emmy race during its run. But, I’m going with this because history has told us that voters love high-concept episodes. Remember back in 2001 when the “Bowling” episode of Malcolm in the Middle, a show about a semi-white trash family, beat Sex and the City, which is snobby and won series later that night. Also, remember the pilot of My Name is Earl, an extreme white trash show which employed unique storytelling techniques and beat Arrested Development and The Office in writing that year. “Remedial Chaos” is a doozy; it is the most original, funniest, and probably the best written episode in the category. But, I still have to keep Girls close behind because, while not hilarious, is good at storytelling, and is the only show here nominated in series. I have this particular Parks episode at three because it is able to mix great political satire with hilarious character quirks (Andy kicking the TV; Ron stealing cable while singing “Wichita Lineman”). It pains me to have Louis C.K. at number four, but I don’t know how voters will respond to this. It is hilarious and the dialogue is great, but it ends with a giant fart, but remember people, voters are snobs. Finally, I have this Parks episode at five. It is emotionally satisfying and shows great character moments, but there aren’t a lot of huge laughs throughout (at least I didn’t think so).

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    Christian Price
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    #252987

    Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series
    1.) Curb Your Enthusiasm – “Palestinean Chicken”
    2.) Louie – “Duckling”
    3.) Girls – “She Did”
    4.) New Girl – “Pilot”
    5.) Modern Family – “Baby on Board”
    6.) Modern Family – “Virgin Territory”

    Analysis: To me, Curb is the obvious frontrunner here. This was a hilarious, political episode that has been called by some as maybe the best episode the series has ever done. Plus, it won the DGA earlier in the year, which is an extra bonus, but it’s not an absolute lock to win. Louie is very strong here. Like Curb, it is also political, but it is also double in length, and is shot simultaneously like a comedy episode and a war documentary in its look and feel. Voters might take notice of that. Next is Girls, which I have here because it’s an episode with a lot of interconnected activity and a very poignant and well shot ending. Then comes New Girl; voters love pilots and this episode has a lot of activity and puts the show together nicely, but I don’t know if it’s better than the three shows above it. And once again, back to me being stupid and crazy, I shouldn’t have the frontrunner for series occupying the last two slots, but these two episodes really aren’t the best picks to showcase the show’s direction, especially Virgin Territory, which wasn’t anything special at all. If “Dude Ranch” or especially “Aunt Mommy” were nominated here, I might have moved it up, but I don’t see anything happening for Modern Family in this category this year.

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    Trent
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    #252988

    A few questions about the writing race:

    -When was the last time that 3 people nominated for acting were also nominated for writing? Did they win or lose?

    -When was the last time a show got 2 writing nominations and still lost?

    -When was the last time a show got 1 writing nomination, and nothing else? Did it win or lose?

    It seems like there could be either a lot of firsts or a bunch of trend continuations in this year’s race. 

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