May 21, 2014 at 9:11 am #318175
Nashville has been renewed for 22 episodes for its third season. I had to go back four pages to find the official season two page and there were only 14 posts (http://www.goldderby.com/forum/topics/view/6102), albeit mostly positive comments.
Ms. Britton has a unique history with the Emmys, highlighted in an article by Marcus James Dixon last year shortly after the nominations.
2010 Lead Actress/Drama – FNL (lost to Kyra Sedgwick)
2011 Lead Actress/Drama – FNL (lost to Julianna Margulies)
2012 Lead Actress/Telefilm or Miniseries – AHS (lost to Julianne Moore)
2013 Lead Actress/Drama – Nashville (lost to Claire Danes)
None of the six experts have Britton in their predictions. The only three they all agree on are Robin Wright, Julianna Margulies, and Claire Danes.
None of the eight editors have Britton in their predictions. They also agree on the same three actresses as the experts, in addition to Kerry Washington. Sidenote: Of the eight, only Tom O’Neil and Chris Beachum do not have Elisabeth Moss in their predictions.
Based on the editors and experts predictions (as of May 21), it tends to look something like this (counting O’Neil as just an expert below):
Michelle Dockery (1 expert 4 editors)
Tatiana Maslany (4 experts, 1 editor)
Vera Farmiga (3 experts, 2 editors)
Lizzy Caplan (2 experts, 1 editor)
Keri Russell (3 experts)
There are the main (only?) 15 contenders for Lead Actress in a Drama this year. The only person predicting Britton is Top 24 user TurnerUnru, who has her in sixth place.
Looking at all of these statistics and predictions, it would seem fairly obvious that Connie Britton won’t be getting a fifth consecutive Emmy nomination (no disrespect, TurnerUnru. Should Britton get in, your legacy will live on forever at GoldDerby). Yet, is it so easy to dismiss her? Looking at the contenders:
Claire Danes – Reigning champ, having won the last two years (plus two Globes and a SAG). But buzz for season three of Homeland went down drastically. She didn’t even get to defend her Globe this year. As previously proven by Kyra Sedgwick and Patricia Arquette, this category doesn’t mind honoring you then dropping you the following year.
Julianna Margulies – It is no secret that The Good Wife is both the it-show of network dramas (in terms of love from the critics) and, more importantly, the comeback kid, as proven by its resurgence at the Globes. That passion, however, is for the series itself, its writing, and thanks in part to that writing, Josh Charles. It’s not necessarily for Julianna Margulies (in the way that it is for, say, Maslany). She was dropped last year when there were seven nominations, half of which could have been Supporting.
Robin Wright – Her series has the buzz. She too has the buzz plus a previous nom, a Globe win, and is mostly the prediction to win by Experts and Editors alike. Wright is the safest prediction of all these nominees.
Elisabeth Moss – Are they tired of nominating her yet? Aren’t they tired of her series? (This year will be telling of the latter question, for sure.)
Kerry Washington – She’s coming in with previous noms at Emmy, Globe and SAG but can she get a second consecutive nom for a glorified soap opera?
Michelle Dockery – See Elisabeth Moss.
Tatiana Maslany – Whereas The Good Wife has a passionate following because of the entire series (the acting, writing, directing, everything), this show has a passionate following because of one factor: Its leading lady. No one really ponders the idea of this series getting a major in Series, Writing, or Directing yet many claim if Globe nom Maslany could land the nomination, she’d win it in a cakewalk. After all of the buzz she garnered from not being nominated for season one, will voters take a closer look for season two?
Vera Farmiga – I can’t come up with anything. Predicting her or not predicting her is as big of a question mark as Connie Britton. There are plenty of factors to support either a nom or a snub.
Lizzy Caplan – Will they take notice of Showtime’s latest drama? (Ray Donovan doesn’t have contenders in this category, obviously.) They certainly never latched onto Shameless. Nor did voters take notice of…
Keri Russell – It took Justified a couple of seasons to catch on. Maybe The Americans will have the same fate?
Mireille Enos – If you were to walk up to half of voters and ask if they were voting for anything for this series, half of them would ask, “What? That’s still on?”
Mariska Hargitay – See Enos.
Diane Kruger – Emmy immediately took notice of F/X’s The Shield and Damages, not so much The Americans and [for season one] Justified. I’m thinking The Bridge will be in the latter category.
Chloe Sevigny – Voters would ask a different question regarding Sevigny: “What? Chloe Sevigny had a drama series?”
And then there’s…
I have only seen the pilot (because that was her submission), and she was good. Does she have anything for season two? I will add that I was an extra on the season two finale of Nashville (“Reyna’s Staff” haha), and it was a grueling shoot. It was at LP Field in Nashville, TN and it was absolutely freezing outside. The shoot started at about 5pm and ended at 6am, and likely would have gone longer but the sun was coming up. They shot all of the concert scenes, and I know they must have done Britton’s duet with the actor that plays Luke at least 30 times (I think 33), because, of course, he *highlight for season two finale ending* proposes at the very end of their song. It really made me appreciate her performance and what she and her costars endure with each episode, especially those concert scenes.
If she does have a chance of getting in, does she have a single standout submission? Season one was a no-brainer with the pilot, but now she’s going to have to work out a strategy.May 21, 2014 at 9:21 am #318177
I doubt it since the show has gone down in terms of buzz and ratings.May 21, 2014 at 9:55 am #318178
I think the BA slots are more influx than most, but there’s no reason for Britton to return. Her Globe nod and Emmy history helped her greatly last year.May 21, 2014 at 10:12 am #318179
Connie is too good for a show like Nashville. It’s a pity. She would have been an awesome pick for the lead role in Season 2 of True DetectiveMay 21, 2014 at 11:29 am #318180
I know Ryan Murphy wants her back. He tried to get her back in a guest role for AHS: Coven but it just couldn’t work out with her Nashville season. I assumed if ABC hadn’t renewed the series, Murphy would have been waiting in the wings. She recently did a benefit dinner with Wendy Davis. That’s a biopic I would love to see (Done by the always-brilliant HBO and Jay Roach), and she would be a great candidate, considering their resemblance, not to mention personal friendship. It would be a good segue to get her from television to film also. Plus maybe that trifecta we all like our favs to receive (Emmy/Globe/SAG. I guess “quad-fecta” now that the TV Critics Choice Awards are becoming a thing, haha). Simply put, she’s deserving of some kind of hardware on her mantle. I’d like to see her comedic chops. She’s proven she’s a great dramatic actress, but maybe a guest arc on Veep a la Allison Janney or Louie a la Melissa Leo. Just to change things up a bit. Granted, she did Spin City, a series of which I’ve never seen a single ep.May 21, 2014 at 11:35 am #318181
I could see Britton getting in again. She’s a respected veteran and Emmy favorite, and with her category in the flux that it is this year, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see voters revet to a familiar name who appears early on the ballot.May 21, 2014 at 11:50 am #318182
NoMay 21, 2014 at 1:20 pm #318183
Hardly anyone thought that she would get nominated last year, so you never know, but I doubt it.