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Conventional wisdom that’s forming that you disagree with

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  • montana82
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    #324499

    Let’s face it, we all F*cked up BIG TIME last Emmys. Most of us gave Merritt Wever, Jeff Daniels, Tony Hale, and Bobby Cannavale very little chance of winning and yet they did.  There were warning signs and we failed to recognize them.

    I see a ton of conventional wisdom already starting to form that I disagree with.  Races being declared over, nominee submissions being discounted, etc.

    1. Jesse Tyler Ferguson is out front to win

    – I watched SA actor tapes today.  He didn’t scream winner to me at all.  In his big scene on his own tape O’Neill sorta stole it from him.  Armisen, Hale, and Burrell all can win.

    2. Anna Chulmsky and Lizzy Caplan submitted poorly.

    -Perhaps they had better, but I still enjoyed both enough to merit wins.  I certainly enjoyed Chulmsky’s terrific effortless scene stealing work more than Janney’s over the topness.  Which brings me to..

    3. Allison Janney is a lock for Supporting Actress.

    -Perhaps so.  But as someone who thinks she should easily win for Masters of Sex, I thought she was forced and trying too hard here.  It just got annoying as hell after a while. Of course that hasn’t stopped people from winning before.

    4. Claire Danes can’t win a 3rd because of fatigue.

    Umm she can.  This is arguably her strongest submission.  The voters will have some better options for alternatives this year (Marguiles, Wright, Caplan) but I don’t know if one will emerge.

    5.  Anna Gunn has it in the bag.

    Perhaps.  And with what I have seen from Hendricks, Baranski, and Heady will.  But Smith’s performance in Episode 1 and Frogatt in either Episode 3 or 4 could challenge what I think was a rather one note performance.  So many women could have been plugged into that high a quality an episode and given a better peformance.  I didn’t think there was anything particularly amazing about the portrayal or her choices. It’s hard not to stand out when you hold a knife to your husband but the line delivery and acting felt one note to me.  I was more taken with some of the smaller better acted scenes by Baranski and Headey but they don’t have enough.  But the DA ladies do. 

    6. Cicely Tyson has TV Movie Actress in the bag

    I can envision scenarios where Lange, Paulson, Driver, and even Wiig COULD win if tapes are watched.  I don’t think Tyson’s performance was AMAZING.  Barry Pepper and Laura Linney can atest to that some voters DO watch the films.

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    #324501

    That Modern Family has no chance for directing.

    It was in third last year and pulled out yet another win. And supposedly the episode is great this year. I have a feeling it will tie M*A*S*H’s record with a fourth win.

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    dude93
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    #324502

    I too have to say that Janney is so grating, and over the top, and generally very poor in Mom overall, and especially in her episode submission. Doesn’t mean I’m betting against her – I think it’s exactly what voters may go for – but I personally think it’s an awful performance. I’d much rather see Chlumsky upset or Bowen repeat. 

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    outsider
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    #324503

    Wait, the conventional wisdom is that “Modern Family” has no chance in directing? That episode defines comedy directing.

    I agree Cicely Tyson is not a lock. Jessica Lange is a very strong contender. I don’t really see how the others have a chance, especially Sarah Paulson. She was supporting and had some pretty terrible moments like when the character went blind.

    I also agree that Anna Gunn isn’t this unbeatable, 100% lock. She’s obviously the frontrunner but it’s not a done deal. I don’t know how I would feel about a win for the “Downton Abbey” women. They’re absolutely deserving but people would be vicious and even more irrational than they already are.

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    montana82
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    #324504

    I too have to say that Janney is so grating, and over the top, and generally very poor in Mom overall, and especially in her episode submission. Doesn’t mean I’m betting against her – I think it’s exactly what voters may go for – but I personally think it’s an awful performance. I’d much rather see Chlumsky upset or Bowen repeat. 

    Hooray . I saw someone else not like it in another thread last night and am glad to see there are a few lone voices in the wilderness. She’ll probably win anyways because Emmy voters love the loudest (usually) but geez loud isn’t always good.

    I thought Chulmsky was brilliant with her facial expressions and one liners and had a good amount of screen time.  If Wever can win…

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    montana82
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    #324505

    I also agree that Anna Gunn isn’t this unbeatable, 100% lock. She’s obviously the frontrunner but it’s not a done deal. I don’t know how I would feel about a win for the “Downton Abbey” women. They’re absolutely deserving but people would be vicious and even more irrational than they already are.

    And it would be so FABULOUS to see….

    A lot of the nominees won last year due to “speeches” and Smith’s speech to Dockery in Episode 1 might send Emmy voters into a tizzy.

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    dude93
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    #324506

    I remember watching Janney’s tape a while back when people were suggesting it as a submission for her, and I just can’t believe how bad an actor she is in it. This is the woman who got a stack of Emmys for West Wing… She’s just so unbelievably cringeworthy on Mom. It’s quite startling :-/ It pains me that she’s gonna get an Emmy for it. Sorry if that’s harsh… 

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    montana82
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    #324507

    I agree Cicely Tyson is not a lock. Jessica Lange is a very strong contender. I don’t really see how the others have a chance, especially Sarah Paulson. She was supporting and had some pretty terrible moments like when the character went blind.

    My thinking is based on what I have seen (Bountiful, Return to Zero, Burton and Taylor, and most of AHS)

    If it’s strictly performance it’s either Lange or Driver.
    If it’s sentiment it’s Tyson
    If it’s WE ARE SORRY WE ROYALLY F*CKED YOU LAST YEAR- It’s Paulson
    If it’s none of these dramatic performances are really that good but boy Wiig was funny and she’s never won- It’s Wiig

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    dude93
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    #324508

    Man, I’d love to see Wiig upset in Miniseries Actress… What a hilarity and an awesome win that would be. So overdue. 

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    dj
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    #324509

    To be fair to Gunn, the tone of the episode required her to be somewhat one note. She does have the teaser where it’s a flashback and she is great and subtle in that scene so I’m going to have to disagree here.

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    espnfan
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    #324510

    #5 is a very good point.

    For the longest time I have doubted Anna Gunn will win and I am going to continue doubting that until the envelope is opened. 

    The past ten or so years in this category is ripe with upsets.  Actually more times than not the actress with the strongest tape does not win.  Hell I think the only actressess with the strongest tape here to win the past 10 plus years are Anna Gunn (2013) and Margo Martindale (2011).

    Considering she was not nominated until the fourth season, I am not sure how much they really love Anna Gunn.  Not to mention Bryan Cranston outshines her most of the episode.  I have no problem with her winning, but I do not consider her a lock by any means. 

     

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    24Emmy
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    #324511

    Man, I’d love to see Wiig upset in Miniseries Actress… What a hilarity and an awesome win that would be. So overdue. 

     

    I have her in third place and would be pleased with a win, but can comedy really beat Cicely Tyson? Hmm. I don’t know.

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    Gabriel
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    #324512

    I watched Janney’s tape, and I wouldn’t say she was bad per se (she’s obviously committed and game for the material she’s been given), but man, I wasn’t expecting Mom to be so mind-numbingly awful. Maybe the awfulness of the show will turn off some voters, but they seem to eat this type of comedy up, so I don’t know…

    Mulgrew’s Tit Punch works so much better as a tape for me.

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    CanadianFan
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    #324513

    I agree with a lot of this.

    Allison Janney’s performance in her Mom submission really underwhelmed me. I thought Ty Burrell came out ahead in the 2 MF episodes, and Ed O’Neill was better than JTF in his own submission. Tony Hale is probably winning.

    Claire Danes should be ranked #1 or 2 on everyone’s ballot based on her tape.  

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    dude93
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    #324514

    I think Mulgrew is too dramatic and somewhat subdued… Quite forgetful actually, IMO. Chlumsky may sweep past the favorites here if Veep has a good night… Watch out for her, I say. 

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