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DRAMA SERIES, WRITING, DIRECTING Predictions & Analysis

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  • iskolar
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    #253720

    Okay here we go with the individual threads so we can neatly compile all analysis and discussions.

    Place
    your rankings, analysis, and explanations for series, writing, and directing categories here. Also, don’t forget to include and update them in
    the Gold Derby predictions center.

    Here are the nominees:

    BEST DRAMA SERIES:

    BOARDWALK EMPIRE * Season 2 * HBO
    Tape A: “21” & “Ourselves Alone”
    Tape B: “Peg of Old” & “Two Boats and a Lifeguard”
    Tape C: “Under God’s Power She Flourishes” & “To the Lost”

    BREAKING BAD * Season 4 * AMC
    Tape A: “Box Cutter” & “Salud”
    Tape B: “Problem Dog” & “Crawl Space”
    Tape C: “End Times” & “Face Off”

    DOWNTON ABBEY * Season 2 * PBS
    Tape A: “Episode 1”
    Tape B: “Episode 6”
    Tape C: “Episode 7”

    GAME OF THRONES * Season 2 * HBO
    Tape A: “What is Dead May Never Die” & “Garden of Bones”
    Tape B: “The Old Gods and the New” & “A Man Without Honor”
    Tape C: “Blackwater” & “Valar Morghulis”

    HOMELAND * Season 1 * SHOWTIME
    Tape A: “Pilot” & “Grace”
    Tape B: “The Good Soldier” & “The Weekend”
    Tape C: “Marine One”

    MAD MEN * Season 5 * AMC
    Tape A:
    Tape B:
    Tape C:

    BEST DRAMA SERIES DIRECTING
    Tim Van Patten, “Boardwalk Empire” – “To the Lost”
    Vince Gilligan, “Breaking Bad” – “Face Off”
    Brian Percival, “Downton Abbey” – “Episode 7”
    Michael Cuesta, “Homeland” – “Pilot”
    Phil Abraham, “Mad Men” – “The Other Woman”

    BEST DRAMA SERIES WRITING
    Julian Fellowes, “Downton Abbey” – “Episode 7”
    Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, and Gideon Raff, “Homeland” –
    “Pilot”
    Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” – “The Other
    Woman”
    Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton, “Mad Men” –
    “Commissions and Fees”
    Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” – “Far Away
    Places”

    Discuss.

    Reply
    Renaton
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    #253722

    I’m thinking “Breaking Bad” will finally be the Directing winner. It fits the profile: it’s visually showy, the show has won important narrative aesthetic awards in the past (editing and cinematography), and it’s the one with the most famous and memorable scene in this bunch. it’s only disavantage might be the violence, but since “Dexter” has already won this category once, I’m don’t think it will be a factor that will matter too much with these nominees. 2nd place/alternate will probably be “Boardwalk Empire”. It won last year (yes, it was Scorsese, but it’s still something that helps it), it’s also a visually strong submission, and it’s a way to recognize Tim Van Patten.

    A lot of people will probably predict “Homeland” here, but I don’t think it will happen just yet. Even though the direction is very precise, it’s not as showy as BB and Boardwalk. “Mad Men” and “Downton Abbey” are here only because the directing is very elegant, but I don’t think they have what it takes to win this category, not this year.  

    As for Writing, this might be a risky prediction, but I don’t think “Mad Men” will win. In fact, I think it’s between “Downton Abbey” and “Homeland”, and that’s without any indication and rationalization of a vote split. I don’t think that’s the factor. I just think those two other shows have really baity storylines and premises.

    With “Downton”, you have the war, you have Christmas, and you have the emotion and the warm. With “Homeland”, you have the characterization, the intrigue, the twists, and the playing with paranoia and the discussion on surveillance. I’m going back and forth between the two, and I still haven’t really chosen one. In the end, I do think “Homeland” might win for the simple fact that it might be seen as slightly more of a screenwriter’s showcase, but I think it will be a very close race, with “The Other Woman” being the dark horse here (yes, I know I’m probably the only one to see “Mad Men” as the dark horse here instead of the frontrunner).

    Very premature rankings:

    DIRECTING

    1. “Face Off” 
    2. “To The Lost”
    3. “Pilot”
    4. “Episode 7”
    5. “The Other Woman” 

    WRITING

    1. “Pilot”
    2. “Episode 7”
    3. “The Other Woman”
    4. “Far Away Places”
    5. “Commissions and Fees” 

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    Anonymous
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    #253723

    Directing:
    1. Face Off, so Gilligan can win something and so the show can win in a 3rd field (after acting and editing)
    2. Pilot, since Directing winners esp recently are very pilot-skewed
    3. The Other Woman, as no drama has 3 series noms yet is 0/4 for directing noms (Though some shows didn’t win until later than that, like Sopranos.)
    4. Episode 7
    5. To the Lost

    Writing: Episode 7, The Other Woman, Far Away Places, Pilot, Commissions and Fees
    Drama: Mad Men, Downton Abbey, Breaking Bad, Homeland, Game of Thrones, Boardwalk Empire

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    probablyROB
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    #253724

    The Other Woman has no competition in writing. Nothing else will win. I am willing to stake my name on this.

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    Renaton
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    #253725

    The Other Woman has no competition in writing. Nothing else will win. I am willing to stake my name on this.

    Please, let’s remember this when “Downton Abbey” or “Homeland” win.

    Also, remember how sure people were that “The Suitcase” would win last year? See how that turned out… Writing categories aren’t that automatic. If “Always”, an episode from a show the Emmys took a long time to recognize more, could beat a heavily hyped “Mad Men” episode, who’s to say that one of the two other shows can’t win?

    And no, FNL didn’t just win because it was their final year. They won because they had an acclaimed episode with powerful moments. And considering how strong reception has been for those two episodes, I don’t see how they could possibly be written off to an automatic win for “Mad Men”. 

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    probablyROB
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    #253726

    I take offense that you compare The Other Woman to The Suitcase. It was down to TOw and The Weekend before nominations came out.

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    Renaton
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    #253727

    @probably, I’m not comparing in terms of quality. What I’m saying is that MM is not an automatic winner like we always assume. Regardless of my feelings for these episodes, I really do feel that even “The Other Woman” is gonna have a hard time to beat two very impressive episodes from new shows the Emmys seem to respond to very well.   

    I think the disappointment that “The Weekend” was snubbed is kinda blinding people from the fact that the pilot was extremely acclaimed and it was responsible for a lot of people to create a huge investment in this show right from the start. They have touchy subject matters (surveillance, national security, and quick introductions to conflicts regarding mental illness, torture and captivity), but they are never alienating or preachy, they introduce characters and define relationships very quickly, and manage to make it a thriller while having a good deal of personal drama. It’s got so much set in motion in just one episode, and yet doesn’t feel overly complicated and that will impress a lot of people.

    And “Episode 7” is just baity as hell. DA is already a very baity show no matter what, but this episode you have the war, all characters having a moment all to themselves, great dialogue, and all that keeping with the Christmas theme. It’s emotional and it has impact. I can see a lot of voters drooling over this.

    My personal ranking would be to put “The Other Woman” above the “Downton” episode (every Joan scene is about perfect for me here), but considering the amount of love the show got this year, and the fact that it won last year in this category (only in Mini/Tv Movie), I think that puts the Christmas special in a better position for a win. And even though most aren’t expecting “Homeland” to win, I do think it will. Voters do like to award pilots every now and then, and this one has tons of elements that work in their favor.

     

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    Spenser Davis
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    #253728

    I take offense that you compare The Other Woman to The Suitcase. It was down to TOw and The Weekend before nominations came out.

    That offends you? Oh, pal, you’re in the wrong place.

    I personally think that “The Other Woman” will win Writing unless enough steam builds in the Downton Abbey engine and leads to a win for “Episode 7.” Personally, I felt that the Christmas special illustrated both the high points and the soapy faults of the second season as a whole, and it was by no means the best example of writing among these nominees.

    For Directing, “Face Off” is my pick. Gilligan-as-showrunner has gained so much noteriety, particularly for the show’s fourth season, that a win here would not only acknowledge his high level of creativity behind the camera but allow voters to give him his first Emmy.

    Percival is his big competition for “Episode 7,” but again, I didn’t find anything particularly spectacular about the direction here. A win for Downton in Directing would be less deserved and more a pitstop during what might be a sweep this year.

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    probablyROB
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    #253729

    I don’t actually take offense. Just my over dramatic way of saying the two aren’t comparable. What I meant previously was The Other Woman was my pick along with The Weekend to win before nominations ever came out. It was down to those two. The Weekend didn’t get in. I recently re watched the Pilot of Homeland and it doesn’t hold a candle to The Other Woman. The tone simply lacks something to me. It lacks the tension of a Breaking Bad written episode and the atmosphere and subtext of a Mad Men episode. Still good but hardly the best. And I don’t watch Downton Abbey so I can’t really judge other than what others are saying. But I do know that losing an Emmy in one year isn’t necessarily a precursor to anything.

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    GoMe91
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    #253730

    Isn’t it weird that Semi Chellas and Matthew Wiener have two nominations? Is that even allowed?

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    Halo_Insider
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    #253731

    Weiner went over this a bit. Apparently, any individual writer can send one episode in for eligibility on his/her behalf. Between the two, Weiner sent one episode under *his* credit, while Chellas submitted the other one.

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    Renaton
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    #253732

    ^ I understand why it happened, and I guess the fact they knew how play the game isn’t wrong, but I still think it shouldn’t be like this. It would be a different matter if either Wiener or Chellas were sharing credit with some other writer in their submission. But to allow the exact same pair to have two submissions, and thus, taking avantage of the prestige and respect around them and the show to get an extra nomination, it’s just not right to the other contenders. The Emmys should really change the rules regarding that, because it allows the possibility of more biased nominations based on the names more than the episode itself (I’m sorry, but no one is gonna convince me “Far Away Places” deserved the nomination more than the several shows that had incredible episodes this season and were snubbed).

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    GoMe91
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    #253733

    ^ I understand why it happened, and I guess the fact they knew how play the game isn’t wrong, but I still think it shouldn’t be like this. It would be a different matter if either Wiener or Chellas were sharing credit with some other writer in their submission. But to allow the exact same pair to have two submissions, and thus, taking avantage of the prestige and respect around them and the show to get an extra nomination, it’s just not right to the other contenders. The Emmys should really change the rules regarding that, because it allows the possibility of more biased nominations based on the names more than the episode itself (I’m sorry, but no one is gonna convince me “Far Away Places” deserved the nomination more than the several shows that had incredible episodes this season and were snubbed).

    This is exactly what I was thinking. Those two did not need TWO nominations. I say, replace “Far Away Places” (a fine that episode that isn’t worthy of an Emmy nom to begin with) with something from Breaking Bad and this category would have been perfect,  

    What they did was almost slimy IMO. 

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    Anonymous
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    #253734

    Yes, I would be okay with Far Away Places being replaced by At the Codifsh Ball or Mystery Date, sure.

    People think it’s lame and a disadvantage when other shows submit lots of episodes. So if Mad Men does that to itself yet gets 3 noms it just shows how much the writers love the show, so I think their love should be able to have such an outlet. 

    At least it’s not a case like some years when Hill St Blues had, for example, a Bochco/Lewis/Yerkovich nom, one with that trio & Milch/Hall, one with that trio & Milch/Wagner, one with Hall, and one with Milch. Aside from taking up literally the whole category, the different permutations with a limited number of writers seem a bit suspect. Would it be better/fairer if the show decided to plop another writer’s name on top of Weiner/Chellas for one of the episodes? 

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    Morgan Henard
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    #253735

    Directing
    would have been such a great threeway race with “Pilot”/Homeland versus “Face Off”/Breaking Bad versus “Blackwater”/Game of Thrones. Thrown in the perennially nominated Mad Men, which hasn’t ever won this category and add in new Emmy darling Downton Abbey and it would have been one helluva race. But we get four of those five, with Boardwalk Empire replacing Game of Thrones. It’s an honest tossup between Breaking Bad and Homeland and I’ve just gotta go with Breaking Bad. Before, honestly, the tune I would be singing would be, “Well, Breaking Bad would have this easily if only Game of Thrones‘s “Blackwater” wasn’t here.” 

    1. Vince Gilligan, “Breaking Bad” – “Face Off”
    2. Michael Cuesta, “Homeland” – “Pilot”
    3. Brian Percival, “Downton Abbey” – “Episode 7”
    4. Phil Abraham, “Mad Men” – “The Other Woman”
    5. Tim Van Patten, “Boardwalk Empire” – “To the Lost”

    —–

    Writing
    When both the Six Feet Under finale, “Everyone’s Waiting,” and the post-Super Bowl two-parter of Grey’s Anatomy, “The End of the World” / “As We Know It” lost to The Sopranos, I decided to not ever root against a series in the Writing race when it finds its darling. Like Lead Actor, this category becomes, unfortunately, rubberstamped. Deserving or not, I’m safely going to predict to Mad Men. With that said, my preference is Homeland. What a beautiful pilot and buildup to a great series to come. The only reason I rank it second is because Mad Men has a hold on this category and won’t let up until the series has ended.   

    1. Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” – “The Other Woman”
    2. Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, and Gideon Raff, “Homeland” – “Pilot”
    3. Julian Fellowes, “Downton Abbey” – “Episode 7”
    4. Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” – “Far Away Places”
    5. Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton, “Mad Men” – “Commissions and Fees”

    —–

    Series
    Mercy. What a race. I see Homeland waiting a little bit a la 24. I just don’t see Game of Thrones ever winning this, even though it probably should. It’s too confusing for non-regular viewers; hell, it’s sometimes too confusing for us loyal viewers.  Is anyone actually passionate about Boardwalk Empire anymore (besides SAG)? It seems after the buzz of Martin Scorsese directing an HBO pilot died down, no one has really talked about it. And I’m sorry, but Downton Abbey in no way should rank above Mad Men or Breaking Bad. It got its due last year over in the Telefilm/Miniseries category (frauding it up in the wrong category, winning everything against real miniseries Mildred Pierce) and that will have to do for now. It’s down to Breaking Bad and Mad Men. I so badly want it to be Breaking Bad but I just have to go with Mad Men. Breaking Bad was the best series of 2011-2012 and it will make me the happiest viewer alive on Emmy night if it wins. I just simply don’t see the Academy giving it top honors. 

    1. Mad Men
    2. Breaking Bad
    3. Homeland
    4. Downton Abbey
    5. Game of Thrones
    6. Boardwalk Empire  

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