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Emmy Slugfests 2017

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  • film2counselor
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    #1202206631

    I’d like to think Wiley has a prayer here – I thought she was absolutely brilliant. Color me skeptical, though. OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1981) – Reds

     

    It would be the biggest shocker. I low key want Millie Bobby Brown to win.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202206640

    I’d be ecstatic if Wiley won just because of what she did in Orange’s fourth season.

    I think she actually has a legit shot in this new system, although I can’t fathom how she would have won under the tape system.

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    film2counselor
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    #1202206642

    What’s the new system?

    I’d be ecstatic if Wiley won just because of what she did in Orange’s fourth season. I think she actually has a legit shot in this new system, although I can’t fathom how she would have won under the tape system.

    What’s the new system?

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    Riley
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    #1202206670

    Old system: Some academy members volunteer to serve as Emmy judges.  These volunteers are randomly assigned to a category or two (associated with their branch) to review the submissions of the nominees and then rank them.  Each separate panel consists of mere dozens of voters.  This resulted in a leveled playing field for lesser-seen contenders, but winners also tended to be those giving broader performances.

    New system: All academy members are eligible to vote in all categories associated with their branch.  Submissions are available for review, but the number of categories and nominees available to each voter makes honest voting, i.e. seeing all nominees, virtually impossible, not to mention that most of these people were not volunteering to serve as judges under the old system, so probably have no interest in such a thing anyway.  Voters merely choose their favourite from each category.  This seems to have resulted in contenders with buzz winning out more often, as well as character actors who did not have much to show from the past year, but have put in their years in the industry.

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    film2counselor
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    #1202206692

    Old system: Some academy members volunteer to serve as Emmy judges. These volunteers are randomly assigned to a category or two (associated with their branch) to review the submissions of the nominees and then rank them. Each separate panel consists of mere dozens of voters. This resulted in a leveled playing field for lesser-seen contenders, but winners also tended to be those giving broader performances. New system: All academy members are eligible to vote in all categories associated with their branch. Submissions are available for review, but the number of categories and nominees available to each voter makes honest voting, i.e. seeing all nominees, virtually impossible, not to mention that most of these people were not volunteering to serve as judges under the old system, so probably have no interest in such a thing anyway. Voters merely choose their favourite from each category. This seems to have resulted in contenders with buzz winning out more often, as well as character actors who did not have much to show from the past year, but have put in their years in the industry.

    Thank you.

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #1202206723

    Samira Wiley did not have an obvious winning tape but am I crazy for thinking she did have an obvious best tape? Jezebels. Which she did not submit.

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    film2counselor
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    #1202206745

    Samira Wiley did not have an obvious winning tape but am I crazy for thinking she did have an obvious best tape? Jezebels. Which she did not submit.

    You’re not, Jezebels over Night.

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    Sagand
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    #1202206771

    Slugfests for Limited/Movie and Comedy Series are up.

    I think Wizard of Lies was dismissed too easily for TV movie. It was the only movie to be nominated for casting, the category we are holding up as key in the other races. That already makes it stronger than All The Way was last year. It may have been a name check nomination but in a category devoid of passion that could be enough.

    If there is one prediction everyone seems to have brought into that I have no understanding of it’s Riz Ahmed. He has everything that makes him ‘internet cool’ but doesn’t necessary translate to votes. Yes, he’s in a Star Wars spinoff but isn’t important enough to make the ‘starring’ section on wikipedia. Yes, he’s young and hot but in a group that prefers it’s veterans. He splits votes with Turturro (who I’d bet gets more votes), and even he people want to support him personally they have two places to do so. (I’ll admit I hadn’t before watching factored in his rap career and his appearance on the Hamilton Mixtape and if the vote took place on Tumblr I would have to.)

    Another thing I wish people would stop saying is you can win with 17% of the vote, while true it is theoretically possible you need everything to be lined up perfectly to make it possible. 99.9% if you get 17% you will lose.

    The slugfest helped me settle on Regina King. I still have a six way race of who to pick for Supporting Actor Camp/Williams and Molina/Tucci both hurt each other, I don’t think Skarsgard has the part and Fargo doesn’t seem to have the acting branch support.

    For Comedy Series before the nominations I might have picked Atlanta, but the increase in Veeps nominations and Atlanta getting only the one Acting nomination makes me confident Veep still has a decent margin. Atlanta might need a few years to find it’s base.

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    forwardswill
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    #1202207087

    I loved Amanda’s angst about casting in the Limited Series one. Too funny.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202207170

    I can totally fathom The Wizard of Lies taking TV Movie, especially if De Niro is prevailing too. My gut, however, says…Sherlock.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1981) – Reds

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    Atypical
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    #1202207234

    Riz Ahmed managing to get that guest nod for “Girls” tells me he’s on voters’ minds and consciousness in a way I wouldn’t have expected. He didn’t “need” to get that nomination, but he did. Totally understand the sentiment for Ahmed in Lead Actor Limited Series/MTM. I’m finally predicting him to win now. He can overcome DeNiro and vote-splitting with Turturro, I believe.

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    RicosMama
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    #1202207517

    These are not all going to be so cut and dry with the gold derby odds favourite winning every category.

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    Teridax
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    #1202207544

    I loved Amanda’s angst about casting in the Limited Series one. Too funny.

    Why do you find it funny? I have The Night Of winning currently, but I’m on the fence about making a last minute switch to Big Little Lies. House of Cards, True Detective, a lot of time Casting wins in general feel like they award “who got the most celebrities” to be cast.

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    Riley
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    #1202207553

    I think Wizard of Lies was dismissed too easily for TV movie. It was the only movie to be nominated for casting, the category we are holding up as key in the other races. That already makes it stronger than All The Way was last year. It may have been a name check nomination but in a category devoid of passion that could be enough.

    All the Way missed casting, but it got twice as many nominations as The Wizard of Lies, most notably including directing.  All the Way also had stronger reviews, with Bryan Cranston becoming the first movie performance ever nominated for a TCA Award to boot, so it seemed to have more heat.

    If there is one prediction everyone seems to have brought into that I have no understanding of it’s Riz Ahmed.

    There is something to be said for how he has not won anything and Gold Derby has been willing him to happen all year.  But he did get the SAG nomination and The Night Of has been performing better with the industry than any other group, as we see from the dual supporting actor nominations.

    He has everything that makes him ‘internet cool’ but doesn’t necessary translate to votes.

    Rami Malek and Tatiana Maslany beg to differ.

    Yes, he’s in a Star Wars spinoff but isn’t important enough to make the ‘starring’ section on wikipedia.

    Yeah, he is not in the poster’s billing block.  Hopefully his agent does a better job negotiating next time.

    He splits votes with Turturro (who I’d bet gets more votes), and even he people want to support him personally they have two places to do so.

    The Emmys did go with breakouts Sterling K. Brown and Courtney B. Vance over veterans/stars John Travolta and Cuba Gooding Jr. though.  This is really the big question.  At Gold Derby, there is overwhelming consensus that Ahmed is the first choice from The Night Of.  We saw this first in the forum poll, in which Ahmed beat Turturro by a greater margin than Nicole Kidman beat Reese Witherspoon, Laura Dern beat Shailene Woodley, Matthew Rhys beat Riz Ahmed, Michael Kenneth Williams beat Bill Camp, Susan Sarandon beat Jessica Lange, Judith Light beat Kathryn Hahn and Sterling K. Brown beat Milo Ventimiglia.  We all thought that it would be close because I think that we all feel that The Night Of leads are generally equal, unlike a lot of these other match-ups, but eighty percent of still made the same choice.  More recently, Ahmed won the Gold Derby Award, overcoming vote-splitting.  Where it gets tricky is no matter how well Ahmed does with us over Turturro, the margin will be smaller with the academy because that is just how they are and we have also seen anecdotal evidence of this in IndieWire‘s bogus report from talking to voters.  Also, step over to TVLine and in their poll of who should win the category, Ahmed only has twice as many votes as Turturro, not four times as much like with our group.  So it could totally be some hive mind thing going on here, opening the door for someone from a different program.

    I wish people would stop saying is you can win with 17% of the vote, while true it is theoretically possible you need everything to be lined up perfectly to make it possible. 99.9% if you get 17% you will lose.

    Stranger Things and Veep just won the Gold Derby Awards, respectively with 22.6% and 21.6% of the vote.  I agree though that “17%” is treated too easily as an excuse for unlikely contenders to win, when there might not be much to justify why a likely contender would not easily get more votes.

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    kancov
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    #1202207876

    Glad to see the Drama Experts predictions, but I wish there were a bit longer. At least, they aren’t crazy for This Is Us like before, but apparently, they switched to the Crown.

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