Frontrunners beware! Voters in unpredictable mood! What other upsets COULD happen?

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  • montana82
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    #259709

    At last nights Creative Arts Emmys, 3 of the acting winners, Kathy Bates, Martha Plimpton, and Jeremy Davies were being ranked by most of us to be “in the middle of the pack.”   Not predicted to win or even be the top challenger.  In hind sight it’s easy to see why all 3 won.  Their tapes were solid and each had an external factor going for them.  Bates had some sympathy due to the controversial cancellation of Harry’s Law with solid ratings but not enough “younger viewers” and her Emmy losing streak.  Plimpton had it going for her that she was nominated for a drama while also starring on a critically acclaimed comedy in which she was snubbed for.  Davies was my 2nd choice after Margolis.  It was a pretty weak category and he has been great on Justified and many thought he should have won last year and sometimes the Emmys come a year late.

    So what other upsets could we see Monday that could come out of left field? The voters are feeling adventerous and perhaps are wandering off the tapes and doing some “research” before they vote lol.

    My picks:

    1. Beware Claire Danes!  Kathy Bates sings in her episode and cries at her ex husbands grave site.  The stuff Emmys are made of! She stars in a David E Kelley show!  Geezers upset at it’s cancellation after it drew solid ratings but didn’t get the young crowd could rally  to her! TOWANDA! If James Spader could beat Ian McShane, James Gandolfini, Hugh Laurie, etc they’d have no problems doing it to you too!

    2. Beware Bryan Cranston!  All the Breaking Bad fanboyism couldn’t drag it to a win last night in winnable categories like Guest Actor/Cinematography.  My first reaction to your tape?  It was good but the ending was too over the top.  Voters last night may have resisted Jean Smart and Melissa McCarthy because they had already won and given it to non winners.  If your panel knows your Emmy track record of 3 for 3, both Damian Lewis and Jon Hamm are viable alternatives to those closet socialists who want to “spread the wealth”!

    3. Beware Game Change!  Everyone is predicting you.  I’m not sure why.  Outside of Julianne Moore, I think you were a solid well acted movie.  But your up against some pretty impressive mini series which just feel bigger and grander.  Hatfield and McCoys showed some strength last night and I think can pull the upset.

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    Laactingnyc
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    #259711

    I think Kathy Bates just became a frontrunner. It’s either her or claire.

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    Choice Chayawat
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    #259712

    How popular is Sherlock in USA? It may not be on the level of Downton Abbey as a miniseries last year. It won nothing at Creative Arts Emmy, but I can see it winning in some major categories predicted to belong to Game Change.

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    Renaton
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    #259713

    Bates didn’t  win Guest because of “sympathy for cancellation” or because she’s overdue. She won because she had a baity tape, where she got to play a guy, which made her quite showy. She won’t beat Danes either just because of those factors. 

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    blueprint
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    #259714

    I don’t think Game Change is in any danger. It is not visually stunning, and wasn’t even nominated in most of the CA categories. For the most part because it is a contemporary film, so no wonder it didn’t win many awards. This won’t affect its chances for winning next week.

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    Riley
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    #259715

    Coming out of the guest acting wins, I think that something that we need
    to consider is something that I keep alluding to with Peter Dinklage’s
    win last year.  In the absence of a strong tape from anyone, voters will
    throw out the tapes and vote based on external factors.  This affected
    drama guest actor where there were no outstanding tapes, so they gave it
    to the overall most-deserving based on body of work for the role.  This
    may have also been the case for drama guest actress.

    This might
    affect drama supporting actress.  Not that there is a frontrunner, but I
    think that 2011 was an anomaly in which the Emmy went to the
    most-deserving, but perhaps this was due to a lack of anyone that
    deserving in years prior, so they went with whoever they felt like,
    based on who knows what.

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    Maxwell Grey
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    #259716

    I feel asleep watching Game Change. 

     I have it 1st place but I really would like anything else to win. 

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    24Emmy
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    #259717

    Coming out of the guest acting wins, I think that something that we need to consider is something that I keep alluding to with Peter Dinklage’s win last year.  In the absence of a strong tape from anyone, voters will throw out the tapes and vote based on external factors.

    Peter Dinklage had a strong tape. The scene in Baelor with Tyrion, Bronn, and Shae is my favorite of the series.

    I predicted him to win last year. This year I have him in third place, but I can see him pulling an upset and winning again.

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    Lance
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    #259718

    You have to look at they way these things are voted on.  Each person in each category is ranked and the person with the lowest total number wins.  So, someone that gets second and third place votes are still in the game and could win with less number one votes than another actor.  A polarizing actor (someone who is either loved or hated) may get a lot of first place votes but also may get a lot of fifth, sixth or seventh place votes.  Those lower place votes are the ones that hurt the most. 

    Voters who think someone has won too many times is probably more likely to put that person last – that might have hurt Jean Smart, in addition to her character not being very likable or people disliking Harry’s Law.  I would not be surprised if Jean Smart still had the most number one votes, but that doesn’t mean you are the winner.  Joan Cussack and her show receive many different types of reactions and that probably gave her a lot of lower place votes.  I bet that Plimpton won by having a consistent amount of number 2 and 3 votes.

    Davies also won because of a lot of 2nd and 3rd place votes.  Margoles performance was very polarizing – he probably got a lot of first place votes, but he didn’t speak and his facial expressions were way over the top for a lot of people, including me.  He was hurt by a lot of 4th and 5th place votes.  Baker probably received many first place votes because of the creepy fun nature of his character but many voters probably didn’t see much beyond that.   I bet Margoles and Baker recieved the most number one votes but Davies probably received an overwhelming amount of second place votes.  Also, I think many people missed out on how good he was in his tape – I thought it was the best of the bunch and he probably got a lot of number one votes as well.

    As far as Kathy Bates goes, I think she had a lot of people that thought she was overdue and everyone really underestimated her tape and the fact she was playing a man – voters love that!  Maybe some voters also thought it was a good way to stick it to Charlie Sheen by giving her an Emmy for the character he created but never won an Emmy for.  Rudolph and McCarthy were seen by most as the best so I thought it would be between them – Maybe we are also underestimating the support for the other actors in this category and the votes were all over the place with even Cho getting some high votes.  Maybe when the cards fell Bates just barely got ahead of everyone else.

    I think the Emmys should scrap this voting system and go with the preferential voting system like they use for the Best Picture at the Oscars.  

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    Andrew Eng
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    #259719

    [quote=”thedemonhog”]Coming out of the guest acting wins, I think that something that we need to consider is something that I keep alluding to with Peter Dinklage’s win last year.  In the absence of a strong tape from anyone, voters will throw out the tapes and vote based on external factors.

    Peter Dinklage had a strong tape. The scene in Baelor with Tyrion, Bronn, and Shae is my favorite of the series.

    I predicted him to win last year. This year I have him in third place, but I can see him pulling an upset and winning again.[/quote]

    I predicted him last year as well, and I agree that his tape was phenomenal. That confession is definitely of the best scenes of the show so far. Of his competition last year, I thought Slattery was in contention and that Goggins had a real chance to win. The latter’s performance in “I of the Storm” is subtle but slow-building in tension, and the tension increases right up until the final scene, where he gets a big explosive moment that resonated with me. The other 3 actors (Charles, Cumming, and Braugher) I ruled out, as I was not impressed by their tapes.

    As for this year, I have him in 2nd place behind Paul but, after last night’s GoT sweep, I am heavily tempted to switch to Dinklage. I know the categories aren’t related, but I don’t think anyone expected GoT to win 6 Emmys last night. That’s gotta mean something.  

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    Riley
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    #259720

    Ah, very good point about second-place votes, LanceRouch.  That must have been it.

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    A Person
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    #259721

    Just because Bates won Guest doesn’t mean she’s winning in Lead Actress.  I compare it to Neil Patrick Harris in 2010, he was considered overdue (not as much as Bates but still) for an Emmy win and won Guest Actor in a Comedy for Glee as well as for hosting the Tonys, but lost for How I Met Your Mother.

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    Anonymous
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    #259722

    I can see Hatfields & McCoys winning Best Mini.

    I can also see Frances Conroy being recognized for both her work on American Horror Story and for her nominated but unrewarded work on Six Feet Under.  Sarah Paulson could also sweep in on a Game Change wave.  Either way, both are real threats to Lange, who already has an Emmy.

     

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    efficiency
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    #259723

    I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Amy Poehler are the clear frontrunners for Lead Actress Comedy, and I would be thrilled if either one of them won (although I would prefer Louis-Dreyfus, hence my DP).

    BUT…

    Zooey Deschanel could very easily pull an upset. I wouldn’t be outraged by this (like I was with Melissa McCarthy last year – I think McCarthy is great but there is nothing Emmy worthy about Mike & Molly). I really love New Girl and Deschanel is awesome, but she isn’t the best in the category. 

     

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    Madson Melo
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    #259724

    Right now I say that Modern Family, Bryan Cranston, Claire Danes, Julianne Moore, and Jessica Lange are the only locks, that’s right. But the first two (MF & Cranston) maybe, just MAYBE could be upset by others. Girls and Lewis can be the winners, it would certainly be amazing to see this.

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