Gold Derby Exclusive: We’ve got Matt Roush’s Emmy Predix

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    #289641

     
    Here are Matt’s predix side by side with other pundits per category:
     
    http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/emmys-2013/comedy-series.html

    If you click on Matt’s name, you’ll see all of his predix on one page:

    http://www.goldderby.com/Matt%20Roush/mypredictions/

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    SaraR
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    #289643

    Still picking Alec Baldwin after the subpar submission?

    Kerry Washington seems way too low/Elisabeth Moss too high.

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    Halo_Insider
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    #289644

    These seem a little peculiar. Aside from Alec Baldwin, he seems to be greatly underestimating 30 Rock, as well as Rupert Friend, Matt Damon, and Sarah Paulson. Meanwhile, I can’t really understand the rationale for ranking Aaron Paul and Christina Hendricks so high.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #289645

    He has Tina Fey in fifth place, Aaron Paul in second, Mad Men in third, The Big Bang Theory in second, etc. I don’t like these predictions too much.

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    Chris Beachum
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    #289646

    Everybody, myself included, will continue to change their productions quite often. We are just now learning the episode titles and they all need to be viewed in context.

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    Ghost
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    #289647

    30 Rock at 5th? Wow.

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    David Buchanan
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    #289648

    Obviously Boomer is correct that we don’t even have all of the episode submissions yet, but why would a professional pundit announce even his first predictions when we don’t even have all of the information yet? It’s one thing to make predicitons based on the perceived quality of the episodes / the buzz surrounding them, and then make changes once you’ve had enough time to view them, and rethink them, but this is too early in the game to start making picks for our consumption. 

    Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.

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    Chris Beachum
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    #289649

    All experts, editors, and users have been asked to go ahead and provide predictions now. We can all change as often as we want. I am sure my predictions now will look much different in a few weeks after I watch everything.

    The other reason is that we need all of these early predictions to launch the statistics portion of the website. People in the industry need to know the odds now. They also track how they change from week to week over the next two months. If you go in that section in mid-September, take a look at the color charts to see how certain categories and nominees move up and down. Quite fascinating.

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    Riley
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    #289650

    Early predictions are good and people are allowed to make “mistakes”, but this is an entire thread about one person’s predictions.  Tom posting the link and the first comment saying “I am sure that these will change” would have made for a lame discussion.

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    Morgan Henard
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    #289651

    I understand predictions will change based on submissions, but how in the world can he rank Aaron Paul second? Just because he’s a two-time champ? Paul (a great great actor, mind you) has absoluely nothing to submit. I’m commenting because the entire thread is devoted to Matt Roush’s predictions. 

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    Halo_Insider
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    #289652

    Exactly. And really, I have to inquire, because his views on 30 Rock as a whole pique my interest. I’m not sure if Roush finished up these predictions before seeing what the show officially submitted, but it does seem odd to rank the show and Tina so lowly even from the start, given how it leads the nomination total out of all comedies this year (and the sentiment for Tina Fey would seem to warrant her higher consideration than 5th place in Lead Actress, even with its competitiveness).

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #289653

    Matt is crazybizzy right now with the start of TCA Press Tour, so he admits that he hasn’t been able to give these much deep thought. But he loves Gold Derby and appreciates the pundit game and that it should be played out. Remember, he’s one of our original Derbyites dating back to the launch of this site 13 years ago. So he graciously gave me these predix when I bugged him.

    How can any of you guys chastize Matt for giving us predix with YOU are making predix? Jeeez, give him a break. After press tour, Matt and I will do a series of podcasts, which we do every year and you can hear him speak for himself on all this. Meantime, it’s wonderful that we have these thoughts from one of the greatest TV journalists of ’em all … (Tx, Matt!)

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    Morgan Henard
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    #289654

    I’m not chastising him at all, I was just really curious by his placing Aaron Paul in second. He (or anyone) could easily respond with “Industry support for ‘Breaking Bad’ is huge. Submission or no submission, Paul is about to ride that wave to a third win.” Of course I didn’t mean to come off malicious but rather was just really curious about the ranking. I mean last year – and I don’t know who – a pundit said “Homeland” would sweep Series, Actor, Actress, Writing, and Directing. I thought that one was crazy until Emmy night when 4/5 of those happened (And I would bet serious cash it came in a close second in Directing).

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    Halo_Insider
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    #289655

    I’m also hoping not to come across as provocative, but his thoughts have been given their own thread, so I thought it was right to possibly analyze them a little. I’ve got great faith that Roush will have great reasoning in his final predictions.

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #289656

    Yeah, go ahead and analyze them, criticize them. Torpedo them. That’s cool. That’s part of the game … and the fun. I’m just firing back on his behalf since Matt’s tied up at TCA Press Tour. Let’s keep the discussion going …

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