November 18, 2013 at 9:00 pm #305893
Soon we plan to invite GD users to predict the outcome of certain reality TV shows –- at least the ones that have weekly elimination rounds like Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, Survivor, Amazing Race, America’s Got Talent, So You Think You Can Dance, The Voice, etc.
Below is a sample layout of how the page for each TV show might look to users making their predix.
Whatcha think? What’s missing? How can we improve things?
To see the rough layout, click here:November 18, 2013 at 9:06 pm #305895
For Survivor, you could add the prediction of which contestant will win the week’s immunity challenge. It’s not easy to predict, but that’s life.November 18, 2013 at 10:06 pm #305896
That looks pretty good. How would the points work for “who will ultimately win?” Do you get anything week-to-week if your pick to win survives another week?
What if your pick to win (let’s say Aras) in week one actually wins? Does that person get the same amount of points as someone who switched to Aras in the second last episode of the season?
This may make things complicated, but perhaps there could be a multiplier or something (maybe point increases) for sticking with the same person to win the game. So, maybe if Aras survives the first week, you get 250 points, and if he makes it to week two, you get 300, and then 350, etc… But, the person who just switches to Aras near the end would start at 250. And then if he actually wins, there’s a total point boost or something, perhaps 750 points. The point system would need to scale correctly…
I don’t really like predicting who will win the immunity challenge because: 1) we don’t know what the challenge is beforehand, and 2) some competitors throw the challenge as a strategy. The goal of Survivor is to survive the vote, so I’m fine with: 1) who will get voted out, and 2) who will ultimately win… although I would make an addition.
I’m pretty sure you haven’t watched this season Tom, but Survivor instituted a twist where the people who get voted out actually go to redemption island in which case (3 of them) compete in a duel, and the one who loses actually leaves the game. That would leave 2 people at redemption island until the next tribal council vote where another one would join the pair. Then, the cycle would repeat and there would be a duel where a person is eliminated from the game. Marcus knows the game well!
So, I would suggest a third option: pick one out of the three people already at redemption island to lose the duel. There is no strategic value to losing the duel like there is an immunity challenge, so it works out fine.
As for point suggestions:
For the first category of “who will be eliminated”… I suggest changing this to: “who will get voted out at tribal council?” This is very tough at the beginning because there are multiple tribes and a ton of competitors. I think you should get 200 points if you correctly guess who gets voted out and sent to redemption island.
For the second category of “who will ultimately win”, I think you could start out at 250, and increase by 50 points every week that your prediction stays in. If you change your prediction, you start back at 250. Furthermore, if we’re feeling mean, why not subtract 250 points if your pick to win is eliminated? If they get sent to redemption island, they’re still in the game, so you would have to have a LOT of faith in your pick to win the duels and continue to rack up points. So, because Survivor has 14 weeks or episodes, one would be handsomely rewarded by sticking with the same person. In practice, if your pick is still in at week 9 (right now), you would have gotten 650 points, and then 700 the next week, and then 750…
Perhaps at the end, if your pick wins the entire game, you would get an extra 750 points on top of your weekly ‘earnings’ (which depend on your loyalty).
And finally, the third category of who will leave redemption island or: “who will be eliminated?” Because you only have to pick 1 out of the 3 people, I believe this should be worth the least… 100 or 150.
Let me know what you guys think.
November 18, 2013 at 10:16 pm #305897
Okay, scratch the immunity challenge idea.
Here’s a better one — when it gets to the finale episode we can predict the jury votes.
Using placeholder names:
Katie — Aras (out of 3 choices)
Laura M. — Tyson
Hayden — Tyson
etcNovember 18, 2013 at 10:46 pm #305898
The difficult part about predicting jury votes is that the last episode goes from 5 people to only one winner. We would have to somehow guess who would get voted out and join the jury AND who they would vote for in the finale… I think it’s too complicated.
So, unless you were just predicting random numbers (which would be even more complex because three people get to the final vote), it would be incredibly difficult to model the final episode.
I think for the final episode, we should use a drop down menu of the final five contenders and order them by the place that we think they will get. Because Survivor has three people make it to the end, our order of the top three could tell GD how we believe the final vote tally will read (without getting into exact numbers).
So, let’s say Aras, Vytas, Tyson, Monica, and Caleb make it to the final five.
For the sake of argument, I predict:
The dividing line represents the people who got voted out (above it), and the people who made it to the end (below it). By ranking Vytas first, I’m acknowledging that he will get the most votes to win, while Tyson will get the second most votes, and Monica will get the third most. I have italicized predictions that I got right and bolded the prediction of someone making it to the end.
And, the actual episode goes like this:
Alright. So, for the people above the line, we should just treat it as a normal elimination prediction (200 points). If you manage to guess any of the people below the line (in any order), you are correctly guessing at least someone who made the finals. I think you should get 100 points for anyone that you predict that makes the final three. Now, if you correctly guess their placement (for 2nd and 3rd), you should get 200 points. If you correctly guess the winner, ummm… 750 on top of the incremental ‘earnings’ you’ve been getting every week.
So, let’s put this into practice. The total amount of points you can get (for the finale episode, which disregards the earnings you get by being loyal to someone) is two normal eliminations (200 * 2 = 400) + predicting the final three in any order (3 * 100 = 300), + correctly guessing the person who got 2nd and 3rd (200 * 2 = 400), and correctly predicting the winner (750 points). That totals 1850 points.
In the scenario outlined above, I correctly guessed Aras would get fourth place, so I would receive 200 points. Then, I only guessed two of the finalists, which would net me another 200 points. However, even though I guessed Tyson would get 2nd and he ended up getting 3rd (getting zero points), I did correctly predict the winner, which is worth 750. So I would get 1150/1850 for the evening.
I have no idea if this can be correctly modeled, but it would be pretty awesome if GD could implement a system like this. The point system isn’t that complicated, but it gets a tad messy at the end.November 18, 2013 at 11:07 pm #305899
I love all of these suggestions. The remainder of “Blood VS Water” might be a bit of a learning curve for us as we figure out what works and what doesnt.
I think three drop-down menus is the perfect amount for this show (Who Will Be Eliminated From the Dual, Who Will Be Voted Out of Tribal Counil, and Who Will Win), as anything else might get too complicated. Tom, will the winner point strategy work as suggested above if people stick with a contestant for the whole game?
I also want to contact Survivor bloggers, podcasters and past contestants in order to create a separate Experts section. We have some ideas brewing amongst the editors, but who would you guys like to see amongst our Survivor Expert predictors?November 18, 2013 at 11:12 pm #305900
I also want to contact Survivor bloggers, podcasters and past contestants in order to create a separate Experts section. We have some ideas brewing amongst the editors, but who would you guys like to see amongst our Survivor Expert predictors?
John Cochran and Parvati ShallowNovember 18, 2013 at 11:30 pm #305901
Also Rob Cesternino and Dalton Ross.November 18, 2013 at 11:49 pm #305902
Also Rob Cesternino and Dalton Ross.
Don’t forget about Stephen Fishbach – he’s doing the recaps with Rob Cecternino. Also, I am not sure if she would do that but the winner of Survivor 23 – Sophie – she has recently done an episode recap with Cecternino and she was very good.November 19, 2013 at 2:43 am #305903
What shows are you guys going to include in this new option? Obviously Survivor is what you will be starting with. Is there any chance you will also include smaller shows like Rupauls Drag Race?November 19, 2013 at 7:38 am #305904
I think for most of the voting-based shows, it would also be worthwhile
guessing the bottom two/three. It provides a little bit of a buffer if
you have a decent suspicion of who the elimination options will be, and
could help makes things more fair on a show like So You Think You Can
Dance, for example, where you can guess the audience votes but then what
the judges decide to do with those can be unpredictable/ridiculous.
we then have an expert panel for each show? Or would we have a panel
of reality show experts more generally? People like Cochran and Parvati
obviously are great for Survivor, but I was thinking more somoene like
Michael Slezak from TV Line or somebody over at Grantland like Tess
I love the Who Will Win feature. And I agree with
predicting the winner early and sticking with them should of course be
more points than just picking them at the last minute.November 19, 2013 at 9:44 am #305905
Malcolm Freberg and Gordon Holmes do a weekly ranking every week at Xfinity so they would be good Experts too. We should definitely do a dry run with the rest of Survivor: Blood vs. Water to work out any kinks.November 19, 2013 at 8:13 pm #305906
Hey, GREAT suggestions, everybody! We’re incorporating a lot of your thoughts. See the latest update of rough layout
SxECanadianFanSxE — notice how I deal with the issue you mention of people earning more points if they hold onto their winner choice for a long time. Is the wording OK? Or do you recommend language that more clear?
We’re going to tighten this layout up a bit. Plus we’re adding another box on the right that will show you the current voting/ racetack odds for the three things we’re having our users wager points on ….November 19, 2013 at 8:41 pm #305907
The language is good and the three categories look great for Survivor.
Hmm… so what would happen if I thought Aras (a guy I had held on to for a few weeks) was going to get voted out, and I switched to someone else for that week? “100 points awarded for every week you hold your prediction continuously until the end”
If you get 100 the first week, and then 200 the next, and so on, I would change it to:
“100 additional points rewarded for each consecutive week you hold your prediction. This will incrementally increase if you keep the same prediction” OR [same first sentence] + These points will incrementally increase if you keep the same prediction.
The wording is a tad tricky. Perhaps including an example on the test page such as:
How does our winner selection work?
To incentivize diehard survivor fans to stick with their predictions and stave off bandwagoners, Gold Derby has instituted a point system that will reward the loyal prognosticator. To make it clear, let’s look at an example from the last season of Survivor. If you pick a contestant (such as Cochran) in week one and you stick with that prediction until very end, you will get much more points than someone who switched their prediction to him later in the season.
Here’s how it works: as long as your pick to win survivor manages to survive a week, you will automatically receive 100 points. However, if you stick with that survivor for another consecutive week, and they manage to make it through, you will get 200 points, and then 300, and so on. If, however, you want to switch to another competitor midway through the season, your winnings for that contestant will begin at 100 points. This adds another layer of strategy to the Gold Derby prediction centre.
… blah blah outwit, outplay, outlast.
I hope I understood you correctly. If a system like this could get implemented before the end of this season (there are four regular shows including this wednesday + the crazy finale), we could work out the point scaling. It might be fine the way you have it set up, though.
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