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HELP! Save Me from Making STUPID Predictions!

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    May 13th, 2011
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    #327027

    I would sure appreciate it if you took a look at where I stand now with my Emmy predix and — KAPOW — let me have it where you think I’m being an IDIOT

    http://www.goldderby.com/TomONeil/mypredictions/

    There’s still time for me to make changes — and I DO intend to make them. Show me WHERE.

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    dude93
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    #327029

    You’re sure jumping on the bandwagon for a lot of those categories, Tom, especially the comedy ones! Very unlike you not to go out on some limbs (ahem… Laura Dern…). I have yet to be convinced of this Jesse Tyler Ferguson craze; I still don’t think he stands out enough, even with those two tapes, to win the Emmy… Hale seems the safer choice, but I have a hunch that some of the editors may be on to something with this Ty Burrell idea. You’re also playing it safe with comedy series, as most of us are, by choosing Modern Family over the Orange juggernaut or the dark horse that is Veep. I agree 100% with your JLD & Gervais predictions – they have the roles and the tapes to warrant wins. Are you not tempted, though, to switch to Melissa McCarthy, since you seemed so fond of her tape? And what about this Allison Janney business… too easy or is she truly the only guaranteed lock of the night?

    And that’s just the comedy categories!  

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    jf123
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    #327030

    I agree with you mostly, but why did you put Amy Poehler in last place, and I don’t get the MF winning #5 buzz can u explain?

    Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.

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    David Buchanan
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    #327031

    I posted this in the duplicate thread, so I’m just duplicating those thoughts here…

    I think most of your Comedy and Drama predictions are right in line with my thinking and the general consensus on the message boards, so I don’t think you’re making any “stupid” predictions!

    A few suggestions for your consideration, though:

    I would rethink your ranking of Josh Charles in third in Supporting Actor.  It would be hard to find a supporting actor who had a more buzzed about season overall, from the beginning of the year with his performance in “Hitting the Fan,” to his huge, shocking exit at the end. He submitted particularly well, and I think he has a real shot!  I can see Anna Gunn repeating since she’s only won once before, but I’m not sure Emmy will want to give Aaron Paul three awards for this role; Josh Charles might just capitalize on that in a huge way.

    I would also reconsider your rankings of Joe Morton and Kate Burton in Guest Actor and Actress, respectively.  We all know Morse is a favorite nominee, but nobody gives a performance that screams Emmy more than Joe Morton in Scandal.  It’s the kind of role that’s designed to win this award, and I fully anticipate him winning this year.  Burton has more competition with Janney in the category, but she also gives a tremendously baity performance in every episode of Scandal and I wouldn’t rule her out.  You have both in second place, so I know you’re definitley considering them as spoilers, but I’d move Morton into first! 

    Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.

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    Halo_Insider
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    #327032

    The Bob Newhart prediction I’m curious about, Tom. Is that a way of making up for not predicting him to beat Timberlake last year? I thought he didn’t have as much to do on this tape, especially when competing against Fallon. 

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    Ryan Showers
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    #327033

    I’m glad someone else thinks Who Goes There will win directing. Without Ozymandias there, Breaking Bad will actually lose. That tracking shot speaks for itself. I don’t think Claire Danes is winning again.

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    Zayner
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    #327034

    I don’t know about Laverne Cox winning! Her role is so dramatic. Yes she is the first openly transgendered woman but I just can’t see voters warranting a win for that. IMO, it’s Joan Cusack or Uzo Aduba!

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    nahborghi
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    #327035

    I completely disagree with you about Laverne Cox. Uzo Aduba is the standout of the first season, and she completely steals Cox’s momentum in that episode. Not to mention, it’s a heavily dramatic role.

    You have Caplan in last! I’d say she’s the spoiler of the category. I don’t buy the JTF love, I still think Hale will repeat. And I don’t see Bob Newhart winning again.

    But yeah, overall, I think you’re on the right track on most of these categories.  

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    Tonbone
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    #327036

    I realize there is no point in debating this but if “True Detective” which is a miniseries wins in the best directing in drama category I will lose it! That is just not right 

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    Aaron Christopher
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    #327037

    Almost all of these are in line with my thinking, or very close.

    The only major suggestions I have:

    – I think Comedy Actor is definitely between Gervais, Parsons and Macy–you have Macy ranked too low. He may not have much screentime, but it’s a performance from a great actor — something that’s been missing in this category. Plus, he’s got that terrific speech at the end which will definitely sway some voters. I’m not saying he wins–I have Gervais in first–but he’s an absolute spoiler, whereas Louie and LeBlanc really don’t have it.

    – I think Caplan is similarly a wild card in Drama Actress, and having her in sixth is far too low. Caplan may not have a big scene like Claire Danes or even Robin Wright, but she’s still giving a transformational performance. Voters liked her enough to put her over Keri Russell, Tatiana Maslany, Vera Farmiga and former mainstay Elisabeth Moss–they like her work. In this pilot, she has loads of screentime and a great arc that’s going to appeal to some voters. Plus, her show is on and she’s a fresh face; the lack of buzz hurts buth Washington and Dockery. Again, however, I’m with you on Claire Danes winning the thing.

    – I’ll give my rundown on why I think Veep pulls it out in this thrilling race for Comedy Series: Veep stands out to me for one
    particular reason: momentum. It barely squeaked into the category for its first
    season, and sat comfortably last year. But its second season won an additional
    Emmy beyond Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Tony Hale, and then pulled off a
    jaw-dropper when it won Comedy Series at the WGA Awards. Then its third season
    premiered to universal acclaim and record ratings, and it just won the TCA
    Award for Comedy Series. The Emmys further built in recognition, finally noting
    it in Writing as well as in Guest Acting and some creative categories. It’s
    also received terrific press and had some potent cultural impact, from Louis-Dreyfus’
    fantastic White House Correspondents Dinner video with VP Joe Biden to a major
    profile in the New York Times. It’s the “cool” show of the moment, like Louie was a few years back, only Veep is ensemble-driven (an Emmy
    necessity) and higher-rated. And if none of that mattered, it’s also the only
    series other than The Office, 30 Rock and Modern Family to win WGA and SAG awards in the same year since
    2000, and would be the first in history to accomplish that feat and not win the
    big Emmy.

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #327038

    American story Coven at 4 and Bonnie and Clyde at 3. That’s kind a rough I find. Just because theirs no support for BAC. With only at hand full of nominees.

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    montana82
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    #327039

    Tom, I am glad you have Minnie Driver and Joanne Frogatt in 2nd place.  I would love if both upset their categories.  Did you rank them there after watching their movie/episode?  You think they have a shot?

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #327040

    hmmm… you guys have given me a lot to think about here. TX. Changes in my picks coming soon

    I hadn’t realized I ranked Bonnie & Clude and White Queen above AHS:C — yikes! — and maybe I’m just being sentimentally stobborn about Morse, Did you know that when Gold Derby relaunched in 2010, Morse served as our master of ceremonies at the party? Aaron Paul sat at the front table, cheering and pouring champagne for all while Armie Hammer held forth at the bar. What a terrific night that was! 

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