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Lead Actor in a Drama Series 2017 Analysis

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  • Sam Keys
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    Jun 18th, 2014
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    #1202156413

    Felt like we should have a specific forum on this.

    The nominees:
    Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”)
    Anthony Hopkins (“Westworld”)
    Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
    Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”)
    Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)
    Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”)
    Milo Ventimiglia (“This Is Us”)

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    Sam Keys
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    #1202156421

    I don’t buy into Brown winning, Ventimiglia (the actual lead if there was one) will probably split voted with him, and he is seen by many as a supporting player. But out of all of the shows, his show has the strongest support within the acting branch, so I’m not counting him out completely.

    Hopkins had such a small role that I really don’t see him winning, but he is Sir Anthony Hopkins so we can’t count him out. Schreiber’s show doesn’t happen to have a lot of support this year (especially considering last year’s breakout year they had). HOC dipped significantly in nominations this year, and nobody seemed to like this season, so he is out.

    The Americans missed series and had a weaker season, but it seems that it is stronger with the acting branch as ever with Martindale missing out in Supporting, and someone like Alison Wright actually getting a nom. So I could see him easily winning. And finally, the acting Branch seems to be the only branch not watching Better Call Saul, but Odenkirk seems to be well liked enough and the show had its most buzzed about season yet, so I could see him pull off a win.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202156423

    I’m predicting Liev Schrieber

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    pulp50
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    #1202156451

    It’s easier to make a case for why any of the drama actors could lose than why any of them could win.

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    boss
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    #1202156531

    Milo Ventimiglia may have benefited from the unlimited vote option, I’m pretty sure he is either 6th or 7th. On the other hand, Sterling K. Brown is fresh out of OJ and an Emmy win, leading a series which the acting branch is clearly aware of. Quite easy choice for me. (The fact that Michael McKean is snubbed for the past two years should be a message for Odenkirk on acting branch’s opinion)

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202156570

    If not for Ventimiglia, I suspect Brown would be winning this rather comfortably. As it stands, I think the latter eeks it out over Spacey, who’s likelier to prevail for whenever his final season is. Don’t see a path for Hopkins, Rhys, Schreiber or Ventimiglia. Can’t count Odenkirk out but the McKean snub means voters aren’t actually watching his show.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: 20 Years of Streep (2016) – Florence Foster Jenkins

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    Teridax
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    #1202156573

    SAG and TCA nominee Sterling K. Brown is winning this easily. Vote splitting definitely won’t be a thing since the unlimited choices was what helped Milo Ventimiglia sneak in around 6th or 7th place.

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    kancov
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    #1202156588

    Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”)
    I had him at #1 in the predictions for the nominations, but with Ventimiglia nominated too, I’m not sure he can overcome vote splitting. They both had kinda lead roles in the show and it won’t be easy for voters to pick one.

    Anthony Hopkins (“Westworld”)
    He is my personal favorite and he was actually good. He probably won’t be returning next season, so that’s another (silly) reason. And here’s a terrific video on his performance in Westworld:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kSGkGKwp9U

    Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
    I would love to see either Hopkins or Odenkirk. Odenkirk has support, voters know him from Breaking Bad and it’s about time to win. But, apparently, they aren’t watching the show.

    Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”)
    With such an unpredictable category, Rhys might even surprise, but they snubbed the show and he didn’t have anything to do this season.

    Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)
    He’s the only one I haven’t seen, but he could surprise like Mendelsohn last year. He got nominated with different voting systems, he has support and with Brown losing votes because of vote splitting, he’s a serious contender.

    Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”)
    I think this ship has sailed. I really don’t see it happening.

    Milo Ventimiglia (“This Is Us”)
    Even if they overcome vote splitting, Brown will win, not Ventimiglia.

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    jf123
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    #1202156591

    If Kevin Spacey wins, we riot

    Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.

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    Riley
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    #1202156609

    I might have to predict Kevin Spacey for the third year in a row. (Just putting that out there so that you can skip the rest of this post.) As much as we joke about how he will never win an Emmy, it is not like industry actors are so opposed to voting for him that he did not win two SAG Awards recently for the role. And the acting branch has given it a win by popular vote via Reg E. Cathey, who might have even won under the plurality system last year if he had not been nominated opposite two co-stars. Anyway, given that he has won SAG and that House of Cards is popular enough among the acting branch to get up to eight nominations and that the acting branch seems to be carrying it almost single-handedly to Outstanding Drama Series nominations, Spacey definitely has a base of support, which we cannot say for sure about some of his opponents. A divided year like this might be when that is enough for a win.

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    pulp50
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    #1202156621

    I agree with Riley, I’m strongly considering predicting Spacey, while at the same time rooting against him. I’ll probably pick Odenkirk in the end. So what if they aren’t watching the show? We all know voters don’t actually have to be watching the show. Odenkirk has a combination of passionate supporters who do watch the show and know he’s emmy worthy and industry goodwill. Hopkins, Schreiber and Spacey have the good will, but I don’t see that much support for their performances by the people watching their shows.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202156871

    I might have to predict Kevin Spacey for the third year in a row. (Just putting that out there so that you can skip the rest of this post.) As much as we joke about how he will never win an Emmy, it is not like industry actors are so opposed to voting for him that he did not win two SAG Awards recently for the role. And the acting branch has given it a win by popular vote via Reg E. Cathey, who might have even won under the plurality system last year if he had not been nominated opposite two co-stars. Anyway, given that he has won SAG and that House of Cards is popular enough among the acting branch to get up to eight nominations and that the acting branch seems to be carrying it almost single-handedly to Outstanding Drama Series nominations, Spacey definitely has a base of support, which we cannot say for sure about some of his opponents. A divided year like this might be when that is enough for a win.

    He could win, I agree. But isn’t it contradictory for you to say this about Spacey then turn around and say Chlumsky can’t win because she hasn’t won already?!

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    Anonymous
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    #1202156873

    Anna Chlumsky is not Kevin Spacey.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202156875

    Anna Chlumsky is not Kevin Spacey.

    Maybe that matters more to Spacey, then. It’s such a larger-than-life role, from such a established actor, that you’d think he would’ve won at least once by now if there was enough goodwill towards him. Chlumsky has two advantages that Spacey doesn’t have: vote-splitting and being in a show that we know they like.

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    Madson Melo
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    #1202156943

    Spacey is not winning. I’m torn between Odenkirk, Rhys and Brown with the vote split not happening.

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