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'Locks' that are not locks

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  • SayMyName
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    #1202158793

    Every year we have these ‘lock’ predictions in many categories, but sometimes the voters choose someone else. Who are this year’s false ‘locks’?

    My bets: 

    I would say Elisabeth Moss is one of them. They always screw her over. I don’t know why. She’s clearly a fan favorite and has the strongest performance all the time, but they don’t seem to care. I want to be wrong in this.

    Laura Dern. No matter how good she is, or that she is overdue, they will probably reward previous Emmy-champs Judy Davis or Regina King, who both need even more Emmys. Blah.

    Judith Light. I know she’s not the top choice in the Predictions Center, but many people are convinced that she is going to win. I honestly doubt that. We all know that these awards are mostly about politics – Kate McKinnon has a good ride with the Hilary thing and I think she’s going to win many more times. Including this year.

    Melissa McCarthy. As deserving she is, the nostalgia and emotional factor will help the late Carrie Fisher’s case.

    Alexis Bledel. They waited a million years to even nominate her. Can she actually beat legendary Cicely Tyson or the suddenly popular Ann Dowd?

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    GusCruz
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    #1202158797

    Alec Baldwin is not a lock.
    Moss is not a lock.
    Thanksgiving (Comedy Writing) is not a lock.

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    RicosMama
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    #1202158803

    Completely agree. Baldwin is not a lock at all, he likely will win but its tighter then people think. I personally think Comedy Writing is going to go to Glover and that will be his award, similar to what they did with Ansari last year.
    I think Moss is fairly safe.

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    Stretchy
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    #1202158809

    Thandie Newton, currently at 44%, way ahead of Metz (22%) and MBB (19%)

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    pulp50
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    #1202158818

    I agree on Baldwin and also McKinnon. I don’t think Veep is a lock for comedy series. Is John Lithgow a lock? I think he’s pretty safe, but I’d probably add him to my list too, I could see someone like Jeffrey Wright taking that award.

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    Marco B.
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    #1202158820

    If there’s one thing I learned in these years, is that there are no absolute locks at the Emmys, or at least they are very rare.

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    Teridax
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    #1202158839

    I think that Mad Men was a lock for Writing for the first season’s pilot “Smoke Gets In Your Eyes.” I think that 30 Rock was a lock to win Best Comedy Series for its 2nd and 3rd seasons. I think that Sarah Paulson was a lock last year for “The People v. O.J. Simpson.” I think that James Gandolfini and Edie Falco were both locks for their performances in The Sopranos episode “Whitecaps.” Martin Scorsese was a lock for Directing the Pilot of “Boardwalk Empire.

    My point is, there have been locks at the Emmys before, but as Marco B said, they are very rare. I think that Julia Louis-Dreyfus is not a lock this year like she was last year. With Tracee Ellis Ross’ episode submission “Being Bow-Racial,” I think we should get ready for a potential jaw-dropping upset on Emmys night. I still think it is entirely possible that Veep will win Comedy Series… and ONLY Comedy Series. If Louis-Dreyfus wins Actress, she will be the only other win for the show this entire year. Veep hit its peak with the Emmys for its 4th season, winning 5. Last year it won 3 for its 5th season. If my gut is correct and it continues its downward trend in regards to wins, then the most that Veep will win this year is Comedy Series and Lead Actress. I still don’t buy vote-splitting hurting Kate McKinnon.

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    Teridax
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    #1202158842

    Alec Baldwin is not a lock.
    Moss is not a lock.
    Thanksgiving (Comedy Writing) is not a lock.

    Elizabeth Moss and to a far lesser extent Thanksgiving are locks, but I still am waiting to see if Tituss Burgess submits his “Lemonade” episode, because if he does, I might very well predict him, considering how Alec Baldwin had no range as Trump, while UKS went up in nominations this year, getting 3 of the 4 it did last year, plus making the cut for Music and Lyrics & Stunt Coordination.

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    Teridax
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    #1202158851

    Alexis Bledel is NOT a lock! I actually saw her performance, and while she was good and subtle, she won’t win over Ann Dowd in The Leftovers. Character Actress Ann Dowd should easily take home the Emmy for looking very menacing in a critically-acclaimed show the Emmys don’t watch. Just like how Character Actress Margo Martindale won the Emmy the past 2 years in this exact same kind of role, just being menacing and villainous, with the exact kind of performer playing the role no less!

    To be honest, I have Alexis Bledel in 5th place. I think she made the cut because of what a weak category this is, and I think even Cicely Tyson (who I have in 2nd) has more of a shot due to her iconic veteran status.

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    ricardo505
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    #1202158859

    My money is on Julia Louis-Dreyfus, but I don’t call her a lock.

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    jasonface
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    #1202158863

    I’d say Baldwin is one of the closest things to a lock we have really.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202158869

    Drama Supporting Actress is completely open where any of those six women can easily win so I wouldn’t dare call Newton a lock, especially since she lost the Globe and the SAG and was snubbed by TCA.

    Litghow too, in my opinion, is not a lock at all.

    I think there’s only one lock this year and that is Atlanta in Directing. Even JLD can’t be called a lock just because of her having already won five in a row before (the fatigue would be at an all-time-high and Ross is a formidable threat)

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202158983

    I don’t think there’s a single lock, not even JLD, who for the first time will be facing the comparably formidable Janney.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: 20 Years of Streep (2016) – Florence Foster Jenkins

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    Teridax
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    #1202158994

    I don’t think there’s a single lock, not even JLD, who for the first time will be facing the comparably formidable Janney.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: 20 Years of Streep (2016) – Florence Foster Jenkins

    And Ellie Kemper. And especially Tracee Ellis Ross with her dynamite episode submission.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202159007

    I can’t with people who think tapes still matter

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