May 24, 2011 at 3:52 am #221216
If you’ve read any of my posts over at The Envelope, you’ll probably recognize I’m a huge fan of HBO’s “Treme”, and in particular the performance of Melissa Leo. Her work in last year’s season one finale, “I’ll Fly Away”, was absolutely devastating, on par with her Oscar winning work in “The Fighter”.
Now, that brings me to my question: what are the chances Leo’s Oscar win will help her secure at least one Emmy nomination this year? I suspect [at least] she’ll be nominated for her supporting work in “Mildred Pierce”, though I’m also leaning towards predicting her for a nomination in the Lead race for her work on “Treme”.
So far, she hasn’t had the same level of material as she got last season, but I think the recent Oscar win might work in her favor her. Is it it’s crazy to think someone like Leo could get in over [gasp!] Mariska Hartigay?
Thoughts?May 24, 2011 at 4:05 am #221218
She’s a shoo in for Supporting Actress ina Miniseries/TV Movie for Mildred Pierce and that’s it.May 24, 2011 at 4:05 am #221219
She’s a shoo in for Supporting Actress ina Miniseries/TV Movie for Mildred Pierce and that’s it.May 24, 2011 at 4:06 am #221220
I think the directing nomination last year for Treme was a fluke. Treme is just a show that is not on the Emmys radar; for some reason they always ignore David Simon.
Leo will get a nomination for Mildred Pierce and that is it. The Oscar will gurantee her one Emmy nomination but not two. Drama Lead Actress will be Britton, Hargitay, Margulies, Moss, Sagal and Sedgwick. Bates and Enos will also have better chances than Leo in Drama Lead Actress.May 24, 2011 at 4:19 am #221221
I would love to see Sagal nominated for “Sons of Anarchy”, even if this wasn’t an entirely consistent season for her. That being said, I think we’re giving her Golden Globe win far too much credit. Just look at Chloe Sevigny last year. She seemed like a shoo-in after her own Globe victory, but alas was snubbed on nomination day.
I certainly think she stands a better chance at a nomination than Leo, but only by a hair. Regardless, I’d be happy with either making it in.May 24, 2011 at 4:29 am #221222
Now that I think about it, I probably am giving too much credit to the Golden Globe win. Anna Paquin won the Globe in the same category as Sagal a few years ago and didn’t even get nominated. Still, Treme (and Sons of Anarchy) are not Emmy bait shows and will have a tough time getting any of their actors in. So I still see Bates, Britton, Enos, Hagirtay, Margulies, Moss and Sedgwick ahead of Melissa Leo.May 24, 2011 at 4:41 am #221223
She will be nominated in Supporting Actress for a TV Mini-Series or Movie, but in my opinion, none of David Simon’s actors will break into the Emmy races for their roles in “Treme.”
As for her part in “Mildred Pierce,” even that probably won’t result in a win for her. As much as being a recent Academy Award winner could help, people will also remember her (a) unauthorized individual Oscar campaign and (b) that terrible acceptance speech. Plus, Evan Rachel Wood was the better of the two supporting female performances, so… Yeah. I say no.May 24, 2011 at 4:43 am #221224
Yes, remember when we all jumped on Chloe Sevigny’s bandwagon after her Globe win last year, and she was second or third on everyone’s list. I fear that’s what’s gonna happen to Katey Sagal. I really think she gained a lot of buzz and I’m not surprised if she ends up being nominated but I wouldn’t be shocked if she misses as well.May 24, 2011 at 4:43 am #221225
I agree completely about Margulies, Moss, Sedgwick, Britton, and Hartigay (all of whom I’m predicting), as well as Bates, and I’m reserving judgement on Enos. I think she’s stellar on “The Killing”, but it is not the type of performance voters are going to go far. Far too subtle. Leo has showy material than what Enos gets on a weekly basis. It’s not a bad thing — it’s a good thing, even, because it’s quite unlike any female character currently on television. I’m just hesitant about Enos’s chances because of it. In terms of probability…
9: EnosMay 24, 2011 at 4:58 am #221226
Without Damages in the race, I hope that FX continues to push Sons of Anarchy for the upcoming Emmys. Katey Sagal has been nothing short of fantastic in this series, and even if she doesn’t win (which is likely), I feel that a nomination will be a nice tip of the ol’ hat to the fans who have been plugging her performance for so long now. Sure, there is the inevitable comparison to the Sevigny situation, but for now, Sagal’s in my sixth slot.May 24, 2011 at 5:17 am #221227
My current rankings would be:
I just don’t see Melissa Leo anywhere near the top ten.May 24, 2011 at 1:56 pm #221228
I can’t imagine Anna Paquin would make it in over Leo. I just can’t. Paquin has never been on the Emmy’s radar, and I doubt she ever will be for “True Blood”. As much as I loved the show’s second season, that Series nomination was a fluke.May 24, 2011 at 9:57 pm #221229
I don’t think Leo will make it into the Drama Lead Actress race, but I would not be surprised if she did. I’ve only seen 3 episodes of this season of “Treme” and she’s really done nothing. I suspect she’ll get some meatier material later on, but that race is too competitive. If any Leading Actress gets in from HBO, I would hope it’d be Tripplehorn.May 24, 2011 at 11:08 pm #221230
Leo will probably be nominated for “Mildred Pierce,” but unlikely for “Treme.” I don’t think she’s even in the top ten for “Treme.”
Notoriety usually helps when it comes to getting the nomination, but once you’re in it’s not as important in deciding the winner, and if voters are watching “Mildred Pierce,” most supporting votes will go to Evan Rachel Wood.
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