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NEW Emmy Predictions Slugfest: Gold Derby Editors on Top Drama Series Races

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    May 13th, 2011
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    #321023

    Check out the latest video (or audio podcast) slugfest by Gold Derby editors as we come out swinging over who’ll be nominated (and who will WIN) Best Drama Series plus lead and supporting actor and actress. Click here:

    http://tinyurl.com/q4bw2w7

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    CanadianFan
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    #321025

    Some thoughts:

    – I agree with Riley regarding Breaking Bad. It’s on Netflix, and has more buzz than any other show. It won’t be forgotten anytime soon.
    The Good Wife is not going to be nominated, much less win. Only one show in the past 30 years has come back from being snubbed twice, and that was Lost. HOWEVER, Lost was only snubbed because they changed the voting system in that period. If the voting was changed to a panel system, then yes, The Good Wife would probably come back. But it’s still a popular vote, and I don’t believe the same voters that snubbed a show twice will nominate it again. Charlie’s prediction of TGW winning is crazier than his prediction of Alec Baldwin winning lead actor last year (he did eventually change that).
    – The fact that there is no weighting in the nominating period does hurt new shows and create inertia. I could see some voters thinking Homeland went downhill, yet “ranking” it #9 or #10. There may be more passionate support for the other Showtime show (Masters of Sex), but if less people watched it, it won’t even matter because it will be checked off less. Familiarity breeds laziness when it comes to the Emmy system.
    House of Cards is not winning. It’s not nearly as acclaimed as the other shows, and True Detective stole its thunder. Take the two best episodes of House of Cards and place them against Breaking Bad‘s worst, and the latter would still come out ahead. Charlie’s right about Game of Thrones having more passionate support than HoC.
    – You guys didn’t mention Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex. We’ll find out on July 10th if that was a wise decision or not…
    – The rule change for guest categories pretty much guarantees a Morse win if he gets nominated. When he is not onscreen, the other characters are talking about him, so his presence looms over the entire finale. Watching John Slattery and Christina Hendricks cry over his death is really powerful. His only competition will probably be Beau Bridges.

     

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    Riley
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    #321026

    The Good Wife is not going to be nominated, much less win. Only one show in the past 30 years has come back from being snubbed twice, and that was Lost. HOWEVER, Lost was only snubbed because they changed the voting system in that period. If the voting was changed to a panel system, then yes, The Good Wife would probably come back. But it’s still a popular vote, and I don’t believe the same voters that snubbed a show twice will nominate it again. Charlie’s prediction of TGW winning is crazier than his prediction of Alec Baldwin winning lead actor last year (he did eventually change that).

    Unless it is a new series, I think that if you have to ask whether a series will be nominated, it is not going to win.  Opinions are divided on how much tapes matter in the series races, but I am among the camp that believes that they do not really and that the series races are determined more in the popular vote.  I think that this is part of how we see shows like Mad Men and Modern Family at various points score tons of nominations, lose pretty much all of them and still go on to win the series prize.

    The fact that there is no weighting in the nominating period does hurt new shows and create inertia. I could see some voters thinking Homeland went downhill, yet “ranking” it #9 or #10. There may be more passionate support for the other Showtime show (Masters of Sex), but if less people watched it, it won’t even matter because it will be checked off less. Familiarity breeds laziness when it comes to the Emmy system.

    I have been thinking about this a lot since yesterday and it will not change my predictions center points, but I am switching my seventh-nominee prediction from Masters of Sex to Downton Abbey, which means that I am predicting Downton Abbey, Homeland and Mad Men all to return (when all probably should have been snubbed last year) and The Good Wife to be snubbed at their expense.  The Internet will go berseck.  I keep saying that I doubt that there is enthusiasm for Masters of Sex and if that is the case, why would it do better in a straight popular vote than an extremely resilient academy favourite?

    You guys didn’t mention Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex. We’ll find out on July 10th if that was a wise decision or not…

    Yeah, I have her in ninth, but much closer to my tenth slot Connie Britton than my eighth Julianna Margulies.

    The rule change for guest categories pretty much guarantees a Morse win if he gets nominated. When he is not onscreen, the other characters are talking about him, so his presence looms over the entire finale. Watching John Slattery and Christina Hendricks cry over his death is really powerful. His only competition will probably be Beau Bridges.

    Bridges probably has a lot of screen time, but I do not remember him ever having to flex too much.  Then again, Robert Morse is not giving a tour de force performance either, but he is an old man who gets to sing and dance.  Not having seen any of this season of Scandal, I think that Morse’s biggest threat is probably Dan Bucatinsky.  I completely discounted him last year because he was so awful, but he did have the material and if he does again, it would probably be foolish not to predict him.

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    CanadianFan
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    #321027

    I think Homeland‘s first victory gives voters credibility in terms of actually watching the series tapes. After all, it’s not like the buzz was overwhelming or that the show came in with a ton of love; Mandy Patinkin and Morena Baccarin were snubbed! It didn’t score that many major nominations for the year that it won (didn’t GD have it ranked fourth or fifth)?

    As for Modern Family, I thought they had pretty good to very good seasons every year, although I can’t really recall their series subs. With that said, if voters are watching the entire season of the show, series submissions probably won’t matter as much. They also never really had formidable competition (Glee the first year, no one for the second, no one for the third, and then 30 Rock for the fourth). I think “Fly” may have screwed Breaking Bad of a series victory when Mad Men won their last. 

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    dude93
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    #321028

    Will there be a comedy slugfest soon before the nominations are announced? Looking forward to hearing thoughts on those races

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    Denis
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    #321029

    Sheen is probably the only sure bet for a nomination when talking about MoS, unfortunately, if it gets any praise besides that, it will be for the Pilot, voters usually go insane for Pilot, beats thehell outame why… maybe “Catherine” can sneak in in there and surprise us, but knowing the academy history, yes the Pilot stand in a better position.

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #321030

    Will there be a comedy slugfest soon before the nominations are announced? Looking forward to hearing thoughts on those races

    Yes, we’ll do a comedy slugfest over the next few days. Gotta round up Chris Beachum and Daniel Montgomery for that one … plus a few other stray editors if they can make it. Stay tuned. 

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    Riley
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    #321031

    You think that Morena Baccarin should have been nominated for the first season?  The Mandy Patinkin snub was weird and still inexplicable beyond his supposed industry reputation, but in hindsight, the show was the only one other than Downton Abbey to hit all of the important highly-correlated categories (writing, directing, casting, editing, sound) and it ended up winning a ton of Emmys.  The buzz was strong, as it was coming off of wins from the Globes, TCA, CCTA, WGA, ACE and MPSE, but we completely dismissed it after Mandy Patinkin and “The Weekend” for writing missed.  I chalk Homeland more up to a major miscalculation on Gold Derby’s part than being indicative that the voters based their votes off of two episodes of a season of a serialized show.

    Did Homeland even have the best tapes?  “Grace” and “The Good Soldier” are not particularly memorable and their third tape only had one episode on it because its extended length procluded another episode.  “Face Off” and “Christmas at Downton Abbey” were the two most-nominated episodes of the year and they were submitted.  Breaking Bad also submitted episodes like “Box Cutter”, “Problem Dog”, “Crawl Space” and “End Times”.  Those are better than “Grace”, “The Good Soldier” and a missing episode.  Mad Men always submits well (sometimes with Gold Derby’s help) and had so many options that the episode with the buzzed “Zou Bissou Bissou” rendition.  In its place, they had episodes like “Far Away Places”, “At the Codfish Ball”, “The Other Woman” and “Commissions and Fees”.  That sounds just as strong as what they had the previous four years when they won.

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