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Odds That All Comedy Incumbents Repeat?

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  • jjjmoss
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    #1201873668

    A run-down:
    Veep seems like a lock.
    JLD seems like a lock.
    Janney seems like a near-lock.
    Veep for Writing seems pretty likely.
    Tambor seems pretty likely.
    Hale seems pretty likely given the lack of enthusiasm for the others.
    It feels like the flip that would be most plausible, then, would be for Veep to have an even heavier sweep by taking Directing from Transparent. Perhaps the new voting system of voting for the winner only will prevent that, though, as Veep fans have 3 different choices.

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    Riley
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    #1201873673

    Did not occur to me that I am predicting an exact repeat of the major comedy wins from last year.

    Allison Janney seems a little shaky, but Anna Chlumsky is a fairly weak challenger. She had a down season and did not get caught in the sweep last year.

    Veep taking directing is possible, but their best bet is the one episode that they submitted that was snubbed in writing and it was also the one episode that they submitted that was snubbed in editing (different submissions too), so maybe the academy is not really responding to that episode? Even without vote-splitting, there is a sizeable chance that Transparent takes directing, seeing as it won last year.

    Alec Berg has a chance of upsetting in writing if the “Mother”/Mandel votes split perfectly and Silicon Valley is close enough to Veep in that branch. Silicon Valley does have a second episode nominated, but they should be able to mobilize all of their support in the finale.

    Looking below the line, Veep will finally be able to take editing this year. Casting is a toss-up (Emmy winner Veep versus guild winner Transparent, which won by plurality), but I will predict Veep since the Emmys last year seemed to indicate that they exist in something of a bubble that yields sweeps across branches. Sound will be Modern Family again (Emmy win plus guild win). I mean, their submission is titled “The Storm”. Multi-camera editing will easily be The Big Bang Theory again, with their sex episode nominated. Last year’s multi-camera cinematography winner was snubbed randomly, so we will get a new winner there. Now that American Horror Story has jumped over the contemporary category, I am not expecting Transparent to repeat is costume win. I do not see Brooklyn Nine-Nine losing comedy stunts anytime soon, deserved or not. We might see a new winner in comedy production design. Silicon Valley won last year over Veep, but The Muppets won the guild over both. But The Muppets was cancelled, so maybe the Emmys do not want to attach themselves to a failure. Is it even possible in a popular vote? I will bet on Silicon Valley again. Silicon Valley has to win something, right?

    Expecting repeat comedy winners (11): Series, Writing, Directing, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Casting, Multi-Camera Editing, Production Design, Sound

    Expecting new comedy winners (4): Guest Actor, Guest Actress, Editing, Cinematography

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    jf123
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    #1201873674

    As much as I would love to see Kissing Your Sister win Best Directing, I think that the fact that it is one of three Veep episodes nominated really really hurts its shots of winning with the new voting system and all. So therefore I don’t see Transparent losing this one

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    Riley
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    #1201873675

    In fact, when I logged my predictions last night, I ranked Mike Judge as the most likely to dethrone Jill Soloway.

    First of all, both Silicon Valley and Transparent submitted two episodes this year in directing, but only Silicon Valley got both in. So Silicon Valley has already proved itself more popular with directors this year.

    And unlike Veep (and like in writing), Silicon Valley is not going to see any vote-splitting between its submissions. For the first two seasons, Mike Judge was nominated at the Emmys twice and DGA twice, while Alec Berg was snubbed at the Emmys twice and DGA twice. Judge is easily taking all of the Silicon Valley votes.

    Do the directors even like Transparent anymore? If they only submitted two episodes, how did they not get both in? Veep submitted three and managed to get all of them in. Transparent‘s second director was the show’s cinematographer taking the reins for an episode, so he lacked name recognition, but the “Mother” director is the show’s normal assistant director similarly just taking the reins for an episode. He also lacked name recognition. And it is not like Alec Berg or David Mandel have ever been nominated for directing by the Emmys or DGA either.

    Transparent won the Emmy last year, but it won DGA for the same season. This season of Transparent lost DGA to Veep. The more that I write here, the more that I am talking myself into switching to Silicon Valley from Transparent. And as I said above, you would think that Silicon Valley would win something this year, given all of their nominations and growth. Is anyone (thinking about) predicting Judge?

    I just feel more comfortable predicting something that is two for three in industry directing wins than something that is zero for four. Also, I suspect that Silicon Valley and Veep will draw from the same pool of voters, but that Transparent supporters are a more distinct group. Actually, that might be the best argument for Transparent upsetting in series. Maybe that is what happened at PGA.

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    Anonymous
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    #1201873697

    Somebody has to win over Tony Hale, please God and Academy voters he doesn’t deserve it.
    I am predicting (kinda wishful but anyway) Louie Anderson to win over him but the fact this is his first nomination and his show didn’t fare well with the voters make it hard for me to believe this.

    Other than this wishful thinking yes I think the repeat winners are very much expected. The most probable upset I think is in Lead Actor, although I am predicting Tambor again I can see arguments for both Ansari and Anderson.

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    M
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    #1201873703

    Jeffrey Tambor is not unmovable unlike Dreyfus on the female side. I think Anthony Anderson has the best chance at getting a win for black-ish. I do believe Louie Anderson can beat his category. Had he not been included my support would have favored Matt Walsh. I love the male ensemble of Veep and I think Walsh playing the embarrassing loser deserves at least an Emmy win. Will never understand their resistance to Timothy Simons?

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    Os
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    #1201873704

    Somebody has to win over Tony Hale, please God and Academy voters he doesn’t deserve it.
    I am predicting (kinda wishful but anyway) Louie Anderson to win over him but the fact this is his first nomination and his show didn’t fare well with the voters make it hard for me to believe this.

    The only one I can see winning over Tony is Ty Burrell and that would be so freaking boring.

    If it is between those 2 I prefer Hale but I hope we get a new winner in this category.

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    Anonymous
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    #1201873705

    Somebody has to win over Tony Hale, please God and Academy voters he doesn’t deserve it.
    I am predicting (kinda wishful but anyway) Louie Anderson to win over him but the fact this is his first nomination and his show didn’t fare well with the voters make it hard for me to believe this.

    The only one I can see winning over Tony is Ty Burrell and that would be so freaking boring.

    If it is between those 2 I prefer Hale but I hope we get a new winner in this category.

    At least Burrell did some things, Hale did nothing at all. Neither is deserving this year though.

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    M
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    #1201873707

    The only one I can see winning over Tony is Ty Burrell and that would be so freaking boring.

    If it is between those 2 I prefer Hale but I hope we get a new winner in this category.

    I hope you’re wrong. Neither man deserves a third Emmy over their competition.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201873711

    I’m sticking to Kissing Your Sister in Directing. I’ve read and considered all the arguments as to why it wouldn’t win, and they haven’t convinced me.

    Lead Actor and the Supporting categories are up in the air too.

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    SkyLight
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    #1201873785

    Maybe they won’t rubber stamp JLD and Janney this year. But, yeah it’s completely wishful thinking.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201873787

    My hunch right now is Anderson, Louis-Dreyfus, Anderson and McKinnon. That said, I think it’s basically a coin flip whether last year’s winners simply repeat.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (1978) – Disco Dominates the Oscars

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1201873836

    I think Tony Hale is the one who gets left out. Seems like a pretty easy thing to predict unless he gets caught up in a Veep wave again.

    I love Tony Hale, I could keep seeing Bluths winning Emmys together forever (Tambor is winning again)…but common, Hale wasn’t even the second or third best supporting actor on Veep this year. And Matt Walsh’s place should’ve gone to Timothy Simmons, I don’t even know who isn’t capable of seeing this.

    He will of course submit the finale with his only great scene of the season, but if we’re going strictly by submissions, Tituss Burgess should win if he submits Kimmy Goes to a Play. I hope it happens, I can’t see Ty Burrell winning this anymore and the others don’t seem like competition. I’m curious to see what Louie Anderson submits. I think he might be a spoiler here.

    But the thread has some truth to it though:
    Veep, Tambor, Louis-Dreyfus, Janney, and Veep and Transparent for writing/directing seem like obvious winners to me again.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201873882

    Times in the last 50 years (after they mostly stopped mashing together drama and comedy) when most of a genre’s winners repeated in the same categories:
    81-82 5/7 (Hill Street Blues/Travanti/Conrad/Wtg, Marchand)
    94-95 5/7 (Frasier/Grammer/Dir/Wtg, Bergen)
    00-01 4/7 (West Wing/Janney/Dir, Gandolfini)
    75-76 4/7 (Mary Tyler Moore/Betty White/Wtg, Mash Dir)
    08-09 4/7 (Mad Men/Wtg, Cranston, Close)
    13-14 4/7 (Modern Family/Dir, Parsons, JLD)

    Of course there are times when someone won back to back in different categories like Janney, or a show won back to back with different people like Stonestreet/Burrell/Stonestreet, but those are still changes however minor.

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    Madson Melo
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    #1201873904

    Veep, Dreyfus, Janney and Writing seems LOCK.

    Tambor and Directing are very likely, and I believe they will happen.

    Hale is the question mark, but the only person that can pull an upset is Anderson because he’s a comedy legend, almost(?), but I don’t doubt Hale can win again.

    If this is not boring, I don’t know what is.

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