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Orange is the new black or Brooklyn Nine Nine

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  • Ryan Lapierre
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    #315483

    I revisited my emmy predictions today and I thought at least one of these new shows would get nominated but i can’t decide which one.

    You decide Orange is the new black or Brooklyn Nine Nine?????

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #315485

    It will have been almost a full year since OITNB aired. I think that it may be left out of series, but will get lead actress.

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    James Coughlin
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    #315486

    Brooklyn Nine-Nine can actually win. Orange is the New Black cannot.

    The only morality in a cruel world is chance.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    #315487

    It will have been almost a full year since OITNB aired. I think that it may be left out of series, but will get lead actress.

    The second season will begin streaming June 6, right as Emmy nomination voting begins. So it’ll have all the anticipation leading up to the new season plus the buzz when it actually begins streaming, assuming it maintains its quality.

    I think both shows will get in and Girls will get the shaft. 

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    nahborghi
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    #315488

    Both will get in.

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    Ghost
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    #315489

    Both are getting in, but Brooklyn Nine-Nine has a better shot a winning.

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    Tom_Scavo
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    #315490

    Only Orange is the New Black is getting in… The only major category BB99 will get nominated in is Supporting Actor (Andre Braugher) and Directing. It will totally be a New Girl-situation.

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    Icky
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    #315491

    I think they’re both getting in with B99 being a slightly safer bet. The constant switch-up for ‘Orange’ may hurt it, especially if the new season starts as darkly as the previous ended. Voters just had no interest in New Girl, and NG didn’t have a comedy series win at the Globes helping it out. It also always hurt NG that Zooey is such a divisive personality. 

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    Ghost
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    #315492

    Only Orange is the New Black is getting in… The only major category BB99 will get nominated in is Supporting Actor (Andre Braugher) and Directing. It will totally be a New Girl-situation.

    Why aren’t you predicting Samberg considering how weak Actor is? 

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #315493

    Personally, I like Brooklyn Nine-Nine better than Orange but I think that the latter has a better chance. I would love to see both shows in actually!

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    Riley
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    #315494

    I need to stop thinking that something will be left out because it is in seventh place.  Everything (The Big Bang Theory, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Louie, Modern Family, Orange is the New Black, Silicon Valley, Veep) is getting in and we are definitely getting seven nominees this year.  It is possible that Girls or Parks and Recreation upsets one of them, but whereas I cannot tell what order the first seven are in, I do believe that there is a gulf between them and the next two.

    I am predicting nine nominations for Brooklyn Nine-Nine: series, writing, directing, lead actor, supporting actor, casting, editing, sound, stunts.

    I am also predicting ten nominations for Orange is the New Black: series, writing, directing, directing, lead actress, supporting actress, guest actress, casting, editing, title theme music.

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    mikeboy898
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    #315495

    I need to stop thinking that something will be left out because it is in seventh place.  Everything (The Big Bang Theory, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Louie, Modern Family, Orange is the New Black, Silicon Valley, Veep) is getting in and we are definitely getting seven nominees this year.  It is possible that Girls or Parks and Recreation upsets one of them, but whereas I cannot tell what order the first seven are in, I do believe that there is a gulf between them and the next two.

    I am predicting nine nominations for Brooklyn Nine-Nine: series, writing, directing, lead actor, supporting actor, casting, editing, sound, stunts.

    I am also predicting ten nominations for Orange is the New Black: series, writing, directing, directing, lead actress, supporting actress, guest actress, casting, editing, title theme music.

    Dood, you’re crazy to think that there will be 7 nominations and Girls WON’T be one of them. Silicon Valley will not get in over Girls. I think, if anything, Orange is the New Black will get in over B-99 simply because new episodes will be airing during voting and it had/will have huge buzz around it. 

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    Riley
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    #315496

    We have not seen it yet, but Silicon Valley is apparently HBO’s most mainstream comedy in years.  It is not a niche show like Girls, so HBO will be pushing it over Girls to beat Modern Family, especially since Girls and Veep have had two chances already.

    From its first to its second season, Girls went from eight guild nominations to one, five guild wins to zero, two Globes to zero, one Emmy to zero, a writing nomination to no writing nomination and four Critics’ Choice nominations to three (losing its best comedy slot).  It is clearly on the awards decline.

    That it has never been nominated by PGA or SAG suggests that it has been on the lower end of voting and may be benefiting from how the Emmys have more slots per category, so it will be among the first to fall out for new contenders.  It got lucky last year because it was a terrible year for new comedy, as not a single one was nominated in any category, including the Creative Arts.  That will not be the case this year because we have three new comedies coming on strong.

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    Icky
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    #315497

    If there are seven nominees the last spot will probably be between Louie and Girls. 

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    Riley
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    #315498

    I do have Louie in seventh and Girls in eighth.

    Louie seems on an upswing or at least more stable than Girls.  It picked up three brand new nominations last year, all for work that recognized others on the show, instead of just Louis C.K. himself (series, editing, guest actress), while he maintained lead actor, writing and directing.  Series, writing, directing, editing and acting is a really good hand and one that can actually win series.  But I have him in seventh for a few reasons.

    First of all, I am not sure where the line is.  Veep premiered on April 22 and that was early enough for Emmy recognition, but Arrested Development returned on May 26 and that was too late for the Emmys.  That it got so many guild nominations suggests that it really was more a case of being too late than not being to the Emmys’ liking.  So if Louie premieres on May 8, is that early enough?  That it will be airing two episodes per week means that it will be very easy for voters to fall behind and miss huge chunks of the season.  Because it is airing so late, FX will also not be sending out the entire season to voters, which obviously worked well last year when Louie had not aired in six months by the time of voting.

    Next, Louie does not really look like an Emmy show, so maybe it got in since it was the most critically acclaimed comedy.  But it no longer holds that title.  Orange is the New Black appeared on many more top ten lists and Silicon Valley might best it this year.  Are the Emmys really going to make room for something that does not seem like their cup of tea, but is someone else’s third favourite?

    Finally, I find its PGA snub really troubling.  If Arrested Development had not aired in the last week of eligibility, but earlier, would it have bumped Louie out?  I think that it is really possible.  Louie might just be a case where it holds up when aspects of it are individually scrutinized, but is not really so beloved on a macro level.  After all, why did it get snubbed for its second season when it seemed to have everything going for it?  It looks very much like it might have just lucked into last year being weak for comedies.

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