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Pls Explain Your Prediction for Best Drama Actress

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    #327138

    This is the TOUGHEST Emmy contest to call. Jeeeez. I change my mind every 10 minutes about who I think will prevail. I just re-watched Kerry Washington’s episode and thought: Damn, she could REALLY do it! I was shocked at how good Michelle Dockery’s eppy was. Technically, I’m picking Claire Danes, but, of course, Julianna Margulies is within easy striking distance. I agree with the GD consensus that Robin Wright is out, but, sorry, I just don’t buy any theory that suggests Lizzy Caplan can pull it out. No fireworks in her eppy. 

    Who are YOU picking? And WHY?

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    AviChristiaans
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    #327140

    Claire Danes

    Call me crazy and predictable, but i am going full force behind defending champ Claire Danes. Yes, even though Homeland has fallen from grace, Danes is still here, she is still in the running, and by God she is still the best thing from Homeland. Her performance and abilities as an actress has not been tainted by Homelands fall from grace. And her episode submission (“The Star”) proves that. Yes, only 2 women in Emmy history has won the award 3 consecutive years in a row [Barbara Bain (67-69)  and Tyne Daly (83-85)].

      But i believe if voters chose her 2 years in a row as being far and above the rest based on her great showcase in her chosen submitted episodes, than they will choose her again. Because she has another great showcase in “The Star”. She owns the episode, she IS the episode.

     

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #327141

    I just can’t imagine Danes winning a third year in a row. I’m picking Margulies because if it really comes down to submission, she has the best one.

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    Sócrates Ochoa
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    #327142

    Lizzy Caplan

    I understand what you say Tom, but I’m going with her all over. I know that submission wise Caplan sounds like a long shot, but I see her performance like the apple in the bag of oranges for two reasons: 1) Her character is so different, she’s playing a strong, independent woman in the 1950’s. God, SHE PUNCHES A GUY IN THE FACE! I know she lacks the fireworks the other actresses has in their submissions, but I see this kind of performance grow with some people in the voting panel, specially women. 2) It’s been said that there’s a lot of storylines in this category about suffering women who lost their loved ones, and they are Danes, Dockery and Margulies. IF the voting panel finds that maybe ” a little too much of the same”, MAYBE some of the other nominees will caught their attention, and I’m having the hunch that could be Caplan’s performance, more so since Wright’s messed up with her submission. 

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    #327143

    This is genuinely the most difficult category because honestly all six of the nominees could win. As Socra8a says, there is a repetition with the amount of “suffering women” performances and I do think they could cancel each other out. Having said that, I think Claire Danes very well could win again as her tape is dynamite.

    For Kerry Washington, it feels like her time has passed, even if this is only her second nomination, and I think her role/acting style is a little too polarizing to get a high enough average.

    Robin Wright probably blew it with her submission but she could very well win based on buzz and Hollywood status alone.

    In the end, though, I just have a gut feeling about Lizzy Caplan. She is a strong, independent character who gets to be the hero of the episode, unlike most of the other nominees, who are essentially just grieving. She is an incredibly likable presence and you root for her; you cheer when she punches Dr. Haas. This is what made Merritt Wever win last year, and even Tony Hale. Plus I think she’s an actress who’s “paid her dues” in a way, kind of like Zeljko Ivanek or Margo Martindale when they won. 

    Again, it could be any of them, but I’m betting on Caplan (at the moment). 

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    dude93
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    #327144

    I’m totally on the Caplan train. Buzzy show, and definitely the stand-out in that category. I can’t see them give it to Danes three years in a row, especially when her show was dropped from the drama series category. 

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    Atypical
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    #327145

    Claire Danes. “The Star” is still the best and most cinematic tape of this group, and even though there’s a perceived lack of enthusiasm for “Homeland” in general and maybe for her specifically too, I don’t see that being the case with the panel once they see her submission. I’m sticking with Danes for the three-peat until the envelope is opened.

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    Reiza Rinah Ray
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    #327146

    Claire Danes

    She is amazing. Her tape is, well, nothing without her.

    But I am predicting Julliana Marguilies, just to be safe. 

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    Emmys2011
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    #327147

    – I think tapes in this category really seem to make the call, so its between Danes and Margulies. I should think its Danes to loose (as it should be), but then I think they went from 11 noms to 4, and Margulies came back, but the show didn´t strike so well either. My point being, its a toss up.

    – I would love to see Caplan win, but I don´t think it can happen (THIS YEAR…watch out for next if MoS explodes, as I think it will). However, it SHOULD be noted that the show didn´t do well this year: it didn´t get drama, (bigger name) Sheen, writing or directing, not even costumes for god sakes….and yet, Caplan had enough support to get into a cateogory that had 7 nominees last year (aka, incredibly competitive). This might indicate much more support than we think. 

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #327148

    Well I think the problem with Margulies is that she was snubbed last year. And Danes is coming off with a win. So I think this will go to Danes.

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    Aaron Christopher
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    #327149

    Claire Danes, with Lizzy Caplan and Julianna Margulies right behind.

    Buzz, momentum and general position does count for something in these categories; it’s not all about the tapes. It’s why I don’t think Washington or Dockery can pull it off. The buzz on both of their shows has died down; I think if they submitted these tapes last year (or in Dockery’s case, a couple years ago), they’d have a better shot, but these are not dramatic improvements that stand toe-to-toe with Danes or Margulies. Kyra Sedgwick won this category late in The Closer‘s run, but her episode was absolute dynamite.

    Margulies, as many have stated, has a solid tape, but her work is subtler here and the emotion on display is more solemn than hysterical. She’s terrific, as always, but she was snubbed last year, and I can’t imagine her lifting that far above. That being said, if she gets a panel that’s all about The Good Wife‘s resurgance, she can absolutely pull this off.

    I’ve talked a lot about Caplan, so I’ll just reiterate key points: her making it into this category over bigger-name and more-attention-getting actresses means Emmy voters like her, and even if her tape lacks fireworks, she has a great arc in this pilot and really puts on a performance that is outside of herself. I’d have her in front if she had one money scene, but she doesn’t, so I’m ranking her a close second.

    I think Caplan has the best narrative here, but not the best tape. That honor goes to Claire Danes, a two-time winner that once again gives the biggest performance in this category. Even with Homeland‘s epic fall this year, it looks like that’ll be just enough. 

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    rstang00
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    #327150

    I’ve talked a lot about Caplan, so I’ll just reiterate key points: her making it into this category over bigger-name and more-attention-getting actresses means Emmy voters like her, and even if her tape lacks fireworks, she has a great arc in this pilot and really puts on a performance that is outside of herself. I’d have her in front if she had one money scene, but she doesn’t, so I’m ranking her a close second.

    I think Caplan has the best narrative here, but not the best tape. That honor goes to Claire Danes, a two-time winner that once again gives the biggest performance in this category. Even with Homeland‘s epic fall this year, it looks like that’ll be just enough. 

    I have Caplan 3rd, but these are great points – especially her getting into a hugely competitive category. I’m also tempted to call her upset because she was a major hit at the ‘Masters of Sex’ TV Academy panel just a few months ago, which I wouldn’t really put much stock in but Sheen was a cranky ahole at the event and was snubbed.

    Still, think you’re correct on Danes. Her episode is solid and she has the fireworks that Caplan lacks. Still, veerrrryyy tempting … 

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    Irishmovielover4ever
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    #327151

    Julianna Margulies seems likely as Danes does not seem like a three time winner for this role. Plus Margulies winning would keep the record of a Good Wife actor winning every year. I think Caplan is a competitive dark horse but Margulies seems the likeliest to win.

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    Aaron Christopher
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    #327152

    It’s something that we underestimate a lot–Emmy voters going crazy for actresses in their breakthrough roles. No one forecasted Archie Panjabi getting nominated; her getting in as a nominee indicated that she had a lot of support. Ditto Merritt Wever — no one would ever predict her winning, but the fact that she suddenly entered that category so late in Nurse Jackie‘s run, over so many other contenders, made clear that voters liked her, and worked to get her into the category.

    If we look at this category’s winners over the past decade, we have actresses in procedurals getting firework-heavy episodes (Patricia Arquette, Mariska Hargitay, Kyra Sedgwick); actresses who dominate this category at the Emmys and other ceremonies for a few years (Glenn Close, then Julianna Margulies, now Claire Danes); and an Oscar-winner in Sally Field. We don’t really have anyone that fits into this criteria, which is why we have so many players and why Caplan is an intriguing candidate. 

    The one thing Caplan really has going in her favor is that support has waned somewhat for every other contender in this category over the past few years. Last year was Kerry Washington’s year; the year before that, Claire Danes came in and everyone was talking about Michelle Dockery; and Julianna Margulies picked up her Emmy the year before that. 

    Sidenote: I don’t mention Wright because with that tape, she doesn’t have much of a chance. 

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    Kevin
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    #327153

    As I’ve said before, Danes has an incredible tape that focuses almost completely on her after the first few minutes. The camera lets voters see all of her reactions, and the last moment is devastating. Wright is good, but isn’t a lead actress in her tape. Caplan is also good, and I agree she’s the spoiler, but the nudity might be too much for some older voters. Washington got a lot of speeches, but it was too soapy. Margulies cried, and didn’t do much else. Dockery has a little bit of range, but also lots and lots of crying.

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