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So what last minute conclusions are you coming to for winners?

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  • montana82
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    #297123

    Here we are just 5 days aways from the Creative Arts.  The Emmys are almost here.

    After viewing all the editor chats I was awoken to several new truths.

    1. Ed O’Neill has a real shot to win…most of the editors ranked him either 1st or 2nd and say it’s between him and Burrell.  I remember watching the tapes and originally thinking O’Neill was the one who impressed me the most but than I read all the lukewarm user reviews of him and backed off.  But he could win.

    2.  Krakowski simply doesn’t have the screen time to overcome their love for Bowen’s character.  The 30 Rock writers can take this loss and own it.  She had it if they just fleshed it out more.  It’s a testament to Jane’s talent she took the “cameos” the writers gave her and knocked it out of the park to the point where some are predicting her.

    3. Farmiga is gonna beat Danes.  I rewatched the tapes and Farmiga’s really does stand out.  I almost bought the “Bates Motel is too weird” narrative but that was pushed by Homeland fanboys.  The Bates are weird people and I think the voters know that. Add The Conjuring and Danes fatigue and I think she’s gonna do it.

    4. I also think JDL is going to lose.  I just don’t know who will beat her yet.

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    Nicole Dunn
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    #297125

    Is Danes fatigure actually a thing? It honestly just seems to have appeared out of these forums.
    I also disagree with your point about JDL; if there is any comedic actress and performance that can win consecutively for the first time in 12 or so years she is the womant to do it,.
    🙂   

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    SaraR
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    #297126

    I’m going to have to re-watch Farmiga’s and Danes’ tapes back-to-back, but I really just don’t see how Danes is going to lose. I do not remember anything undeniably remarkable in Farmiga’s tape — the closest I can think is the rape scene, but that could absolutely turn people off. Bates Motel is weird and the pilot is a weird episode, and I think it’s fair to assume that could influence voters. By contrast Homeland has proven to be an Emmy favorite. Also the preferential balloting system is immensely helpful for Danes. I think people around here are getting antsy about predicting her–I’m not saying it’s a slam dunk, certainly not as much of a sure thing as last year, but sometimes people are the frontrunners for a reason.

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    montana82
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    #297127

    Haven’t we had this same conversation a hundred times already?

    I think it’s obvious by the editors chat on Best Actress Drama and several of the reviews here that Farmiga could win based on her submitted work.  For such a weird show a lot of people who know what their talking about watched Farmiga’s episode and picked her over Danes. 

    You can list all the faults in her show and it wouldn’t change that fact.

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    montana82
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    #297128

    And how is the preferential ballot so helpful to Danes in comparison to Farmiga?

    Boomer said in the last chat some people may rank Justin Timberlake last for strategic reasons because they are sick of him winning.  If even one or two voters do that in Actress your girl Danes is going in the basement and that messes up her score.  I don’t see Farmiga going past a ranking of 3rd for any reason. Heck I’ll be shocked if anyone ranks her out of the top 2.

    And why bother rewatching them when you have been in the tank for Danes and all things Homeland in every thread?  Your not exactly unbiased in this. I never saw an episode of Bates Motel before I hopped on Farmiga’s train.

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    montana82
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    #297129

    Is Danes fatigure actually a thing? It honestly just seems to have appeared out of these forums.
    I also disagree with your point about JDL; if there is any comedic actress and performance that can win consecutively for the first time in 12 or so years she is the womant to do it,.
    🙂   

    I wasn’t that impressed with JDL’s tape at all and neither were a couple of the editors.  I think Poehler, Dern, and Fey all have a shot at the win.  That race should be a nail biter as most users all have the top 5 ranked in different orders meaning the final scores will be close.

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    dude93
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    #297130

    I will have a gigantic fit if Julia Louis-Dreyfus doesn’t take home her second consecutive Emmy for Veep. Early on, some of us were convinced Dern had a shot, but now it’s looking ever so clearer that JLD is really quite unbeatable here. Anything else is a dark horse/spoiler type of win, JLD is the most obvious choice for a deserving win IMO. I also agree with this Ed O’Neill business… It’s really the first time he’s had a shot, so it’s definitely him vs Burrell. Farmiga could easily take the best drama actress trophy home… she’s the hot ‘new girl in TV town’ on that list, and she’s Danes’ biggest rival here. 

    One of my biggest fears is Jane Lynch causing an upset to comedy supporting actress and actually winning – she’s won before, and she could very well swoop in and win again if voters don’t sway for Bowen… which would be awful.  

    For drama actor, I think Kevin Spacey is a real spoiler/dark horse competitor here… His (former?) film status & two Oscars make me believe that he could cause an upset to that category…  New show and all too…

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    SaraR
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    #297131

    And how is the preferential ballot so helpful to Danes in comparison to Farmiga?

    I don’t see Danes falling past #2. I can however see Farmiga falling farther because her show lacks snob appeal, voters are turned off by the rape scene, voters are turned off by the tone of her show, etc.

    Boomer said in the last chat some people may rank Justin Timberlake last for strategic reasons because they are sick of him winning.

    Is this actually feasible? We know the voters like repeat winners — you said above that’s why you think Bowen will win again. Voters love Danes.

    And why bother rewatching them when you have been in the tank for Danes and all things Homeland in every thread?  Your not exactly unbiased in this. I never saw an episode of Bates Motel before I hopped on Farmiga’s train.

    I have tried to be as objective as possible in this — instead of saying “Danes will win because her performance is better” I’ve tried to analyze the category taking into account the preferential ballot that, in a weakened field, ensures that Danes will be the #1 or #2 spot in a vast majority of ballots. I just think Danes has a lot fewer things holding her back than Farmiga does.

    I specificed watching them again back-to-back, because when I watched Farmiga’s performance the first time I watched it back-to-back with Washington’s. If the competition is really between Danes and Farmiga, as many here assume it to be, then watching their episodes in succession would better reflect a voter’s experience and allow for more direct comparison.

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    Nicole Dunn
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    #297132

    [quote=”nicole96nicole”]Is Danes fatigure actually a thing? It honestly just seems to have appeared out of these forums.
    I also disagree with your point about JDL; if there is any comedic actress and performance that can win consecutively for the first time in 12 or so years she is the womant to do it,.
    🙂   

    I wasn’t that impressed with JDL’s tape at all and neither were a couple of the editors.  I think Poehler, Dern, and Fey all have a shot at the win.  That race should be a nail biter as most users all have the top 5 ranked in different orders meaning the final scores will be close.
    [/quote]

    That’s fair enough, but the editors don’t vote so it will be interesting to see if any of them share this view. I definitely agree about the top 5 so that will be interesting, but I think Fey and Poehler will be consistently around 3,4 unless they are being picked first so I honestly think JDL’s got it in the bag.

    I am still unsure about Fermiga’s chances. I did indeed think she was fantastic in her episode, but if anyone if going to knock the juggernaut performance and show off that is Claire Danes and Homeland than I don’t think this epiosde is the one.   

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    sweetemmyfan
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    #297133

    One thing also going against Danes is the lack of repeat winners in Drama Lead Actress. Before Glenn Close won consecutively back in 2008 and 2009, there hadn’t been a consecutive repeat winner since 1996/1997. And since Close’s win, there hasn’t been a consecutive winner since.

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    Tonbone
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    #297134

    Maybe Claire Danes is the new Glenn Close

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    Halo_Insider
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    #297135

    Interesting point, but it’s not like the voters are averse to repeat winners. I mean, sure, there haven’t been too many consecutive winners, but given how the category was pretty much ruled by Allison Janney and Edie Falco from 1999-2004, I don’t think that it’s something to hold against her. I mean, Close’s last win was just 4 years ago, and Margulies very well could have been a consecutive winner if she had submitted a better episode.

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    keithw
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    #297136

    For some reason I think the Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series is going to be a shocker……e.g. a win for Christina Hendricks.

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    24Emmy
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    #297137

    ^ I’m thinking of switching from Maggie Smith to Morena Baccarin.

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    Riley
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    #297138

    Ed O’Neill has a real shot to win…most of the editors ranked him
    either 1st or 2nd and say it’s between him and Burrell.  I remember
    watching the tapes and originally thinking O’Neill was the one who
    impressed me the most but than I read all the lukewarm user reviews of
    him and backed off.  But he could win.

    Bill Hader is the one who could upset Ty Burrell for my money.

    Is Danes fatigure actually a thing? It honestly just seems to have appeared out of these forums.

    Homeland fatigue is actually everywhere on the Internet but these forums because the Emmys seem to love the show even more this year with that Morena Baccarin nomination and others.  A Claire Danes backlash has been building as her cry face gets repeated and as the show itself becomes less worthy.

    For drama actor, I think Kevin Spacey is a real
    spoiler/dark horse competitor here… His (former?) film status &
    two Oscars make me believe that he could cause an upset to that
    category…  New show and all too…

    I cannot wait until he loses
    and this argument is put to rest for good.

    Margulies very well could have been a consecutive winner if she had submitted a better episode.

    Too bad that she did not have one.

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