TCA 2017 Predictions

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  • Profile photo of djdj
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    #1202017031

    We’re about six months away from this year’s Television Critics Association Awards. Here are my predictions:

    Outstanding Achievement in Drama

    The Leftovers*
    The Americans
    Better Call Saul
    Rectify
    The Handmaid’s Tale
    This is Us

    Outstanding Achievement in Comedy

    Atlanta*
    Black-ish
    Veep
    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
    The Good Place
    Master of None

    Individual Achievement in Drama

    Bob Odenkirk
    Aden Young
    Carrie Coon*
    Elizabeth Moss
    Keri Russell
    John Lithgow

    Individual Achievement in Comedy

    Rachel Bloom
    Donald Glover*
    Samantha Bee
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus
    Phoebe Waller-Bridge
    Louie Anderson

    Outstanding New Program

    Stranger Things*
    This is Us
    Westworld
    The Crown
    Atlanta
    The Handmaid’s Tale

    Outstanding Achievement in Miniseries, Movies and Specials

    Feud: Bette and Joan
    Fargo*
    Big Little Lies
    American Crime
    The Night Of
    The Wizard of Lies

    Program of the Year

    Stranger Things
    Fargo
    Atlanta
    This is Us*
    The Crown
    The Leftovers

    What do you guys think?

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    Profile photo of RileyRiley
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    #1202017150

    Very early.  Fun!  The Deuce and Game of Thrones are ineligible.

    PROGRAM: Atlanta, The Crown, Fargo, Stranger Things, This is Us, Westworld

    DRAMA: The Americans, Better Call Saul, The Leftovers, Rectify, Stranger Things, This is Us

    COMEDY: Atlanta, black-ish, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Master of None, Silicon Valley, Veep

    MINISERIES/MOVIE: Big Little Lies, Fargo, Feud, Gilmore Girls, The Night Of, The Wizard of Lies

    NEW: Atlanta, The Crown, Insecure, Stranger Things, This is Us, Westworld

    NEWS: The Daily ShowFrontline, Full Frontal, Last Week Tonight, Real Time, 60 Minutes

    REALITY: Chef’s Table, The Circus, The Great British Baking Show, O.J.: Made in America, Soundbreaking, Survivor

    CHILDREN: Daniel Tiger’s NeighborhoodNature Cat, Project Mc2School of Rock, A Series of Unfortunate Events, Sofia the First

    HERITAGE: Law & Order, LostNYPD Blue, Seinfeld, Star Trek, Twin Peaks

    DRAMA INDIVIDUAL: Carrie Coon, John Lithgow, Thandie Newton, Bob Odenkirk, Matthew Rhys, Keri Russell

    COMEDY INDIVIDUAL: Louie Anderson, Rachel Bloom, Aya Cash, Donald Glover, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Kate McKinnon

    CAREER ACHIEVEMENT: Dick Wolf

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    Profile photo of djdj
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    #1202017175

    Great predictions! Totally forgot about Wizard of Lies. Should’ve realized GoT is ineligible.

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202017232

    PROGRAM: Atlanta, The Crown, Fargo, Stranger Things, This is Us, Westworld

    DRAMA: The Americans, Better Call Saul, The Leftovers, Rectify, Stranger Things, This is Us

    COMEDY: Atlanta, black-ish, Better Things, One Day at a time, Silicon Valley, Veep

    MINISERIES/MOVIE: Big Little Lies, Fargo, Feud, Guerilla, The Night Of, The Wizard of Lies

    NEW: Atlanta, The Crown, Insecure, Stranger Things, This is Us, Legion

    DRAMA INDIVIDUAL: Carrie Coon, Carmy Chaikin, Thandie Newton, Bob Odenkirk, Aden Young, Keri Russell

    COMEDY INDIVIDUAL: Louie Anderson, Rachel Bloom, Issa Rae, Donald Glover, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Kate McKinnon

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    Profile photo of NateNate
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    #1202017380

    Here are my early guesses:

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    Claire Foy, “The Crown,” Netflix
    Jessica Lange, “FEUD: Bette and Joan,” FX
    John Lithgow, “The Crown,” Netflix
    Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot,” USA
    Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul,” AMC
    Susan Sarandon, “FEUD: Bette and Joan,” FX

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    Anthony Anderson, “black-ish,” ABC
    Samantha Bee, “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee,” TBS
    Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” The CW
    Donald Glover, “Atlanta,” FX
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep,” HBO
    Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish,” ABC

    OUTSTANDING NEW PROGRAM
    “Atlanta,” FX
    “Better Things,” FX
    “The Crown,” Netflix
    “Stranger Things,” Netflix
    “This Is Us,” NBC
    “Westworld,” HBO

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN MOVIES, MINISERIES AND SPECIALS

    “Big Little Lies,” HBO
    “Fargo,” FX
    “FEUD: Bette and Joan,” FX
    “The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks,” HBO
    “The Night Of,” HBO
    “The Wizard Of Lies,” HBO

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    “The Americans,” FX
    “Better Call Saul,” AMC
    “The Crown,” Netflix
    “Stranger Things,” Netflix
    “This Is Us,” NBC
    “Westworld,” HBO

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    “Atlanta,” FX
    “black-ish,” ABC
    “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” The CW
    “Silicon Valley,” HBO
    “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” Netflix
    “Veep,” HBO

    PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
    “Atlanta,” FX
    “The Americans,” FX
    “The Crown,” Netflix
    “FEUD: Bette and Joan,” FX
    “Stranger Things,” Netflix
    “This Is Us,” NBC
    “Westworld,” HBO

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202017669

    Oh I forgot about Phoebe Waller Bridge. She is definatley a contender. I think we should also look out for Insecure and Better Things.

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    Guest2014
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    #1202017924

    Not a chance in hell Fleabag gets mentioned for ANYTHING. It’s too small, it’s too fringe, it’s too little-seen.

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202017926

    Not a chance in hell Fleabag gets mentioned for ANYTHING. It’s too small, it’s too fringe, it’s too little-seen.

    bro, just cause don’t arch it don’t mean the critics don’t. This is the TCA’s. They watch the small stuff. The fringe stuff. They watch you’re the worst, crazy ex girlfriend, The Leftovers. Even critics choice gave fleabag a nomination. Sorry but the good place pro only won’t get nominated.

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    Profile photo of Joejf123
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    #1202022501

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    Carrie Coon-Either Fargo or The Leftovers
    Claire Foy-The Crown
    John Lithgow-The Crown
    Thandie Newton-Westworld
    Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
    Kerri Russell-The Americans

    INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    Pamela Adlon-Better Things
    Anthony Anderson-black-ish
    Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
    Donald Glover-Atlanta
    Issa Rae-Insecure
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep

    OUTSTANDING NEW PROGRAM
    Atlanta
    The Crown
    Legion
    Stranger Things
    This Is Us
    Westworld

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN MOVIES, MINISERIES AND SPECIALS
    American Crime
    Big Little Lies
    Fargo
    Feud: Betty and Joan
    The Night Of (If Fargo is as well received as the previous two seasons, then Fargo)
    The Wizard of Lies

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN DRAMA
    The Americans
    Better Call Saul
    The Crown
    The Leftovers
    Rectify
    Westworld

    OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN COMEDY
    Atlanta
    blackish
    Crazy Ex Girlfriend
    Master of None
    Silicon Valley
    Veep

    PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
    Atlanta
    The Crown
    Fargo
    The Night Of
    Stranger Things
    This is Us
    Westworld

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202046146

    Oh I forgot Dear White People! That will for sure be a contender with its amazing reviews.

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202046226

    My post got deleted.

    I broke down the comedy category through the last five years and found some interesting trends. I might have got some of the info wrong. Please correct me!

    2016

    Black-ish (second season, first nomination) (WINNER)

    Veep (fifth Season, snubbed twice for season one and four))

    You’re the worst (Second season, first nomination)

    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (First season)

    Master of None (First season)

    Silicon Valley (Third season, first nomination)

    Blackish and You’re the worst broke through for the second seasons, with Blackish winning, while Silicon Valley broke through for its third season.  Master of None and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend got in for the first seasons. None of the previous year’s nominees got in. Veep came back after being snubbed for its fourth season. Two new shows, three break throughs, one previous nominee that was dropped, and no returning nominees. Inside Amy Schumer won the previous year and was snubbed. Big Bag Theory was also snubbed along with first time nominees Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Jane the Virgin, and Transparent.

    2015

    Inside Amy Schumer (Third season, first nomination) (WINNER)

    The Big Bang Theory (eighth season, sixth nomination, snubbed 2008,2011)

    Jane the Virgin (first season)

    Transparent (First Season)

    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (First season)

    Inside Amy Schumer broke through for its third season and won while Jane the Virgin, Transparent, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt got in for their first seasons. Louie was snubbed despite winning the previous year. Veep also won and was snubbed. The Mindy Project and Brooklyn nine-nine were snubbed and the only returning nominee was The Big Bang Theory

    2014

    Louie (fourth season, fourth nomination) (Winner)

    Veep (Third season, second nomination, snubbed for season one))(Winner)

    Big Bang Theory (Seventh season, fifth nomination)

    Brooklyn nine-nine (first season, first nomination)

    The Mindy Project (first nomination, second season)

    The Mindy Project broke through on its second season while Brooklyn nine-nine got in for its first season. Parks and Rec was snubbed for its final critically acclaimed season despite winning the previous year. New girl was also snubbed. Louie, Veep, and the Big Bang Theory all returned.

    2013

    Parks and Rec (Sixth season, fifth nomination, snubbed first season) (WINNER)

    Big Bang Theory (Sixth season, fourth nomination) (WINNER)

    New Girl (first nomination, Second season)

    Louie (Third season, third nomination)

    Veep (Second season, first nomination)

    New Girl and Veep both broke through on their second season. No new shows. Community and Modern Family were snubbed.

    2012

    Louie (Second season, second nomination) WINNER

    Community (Third season, second nomination, snubbed first season)

    Modern Family (Third season, Third nomination)

    Parks and Recreation (Fifth season, fourth nomination)

    Big Bang Theory (fifth season, third nomination)

    No new seasons and no breakthrough. Big Bang Theory came back in to replace Raising Hope.
    Over the last five years, more new shows and breakthroughs have started to occur. My best guess is that this will continue to happen. 2012 to 2015, five of the past six winners were snubbed. This puts Blackish on dangerous grounds. It is having its most critically acclaimed season, but so was Parks and Rec when it was snubbed.  Many first year shows and breakthroughs are snubbed the next year, especially if they don’t win, so Master of None, Crazy Ex-girlfriend, Silicon Valley and You’re the worst are on Dangerous territory. I am going to say that Crazy Ex-girlfriend will probably go down the same path as Jane the Virgin and be snubbed.  You’re the worst will probably go the same way as The Mindy Project. Silicon Valley is strange because shows do not usually break through on the third season. I will, however, predict it to come back since it is one of the most critically acclaimed show on TV. Shows often come back after being snubbed when they are favorites of the TCA’s, such as The Big Bang Theory and Veep. So I could see Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, or Transparent coming back. For shows that haven’t been nominated but have had critically acclaimed season we have Baskets, Shameless, and Mom. I am not sure if OITNB is comedy as it was only nominated for new show and program. I don’t think Shameless or Mom could breakthrough since it has been so long. However, Shameless has had some major momentum lately and season seven was one of the most acclaimed. Is Shameless classified as Drama? Catastrophe might be able to breakthrough- it is critically acclaimed and Carrie Fisher’s death put it in the headlines. TCA always has some wild curve balls. On the new series front we have: Atlanta, Insecure, The Good Place, One Day at a Time, Speechless, Better Things, and Fleabag, Search Party, and a series of unfortunate events. Atlanta is going to get nominated of course. I think One Day at a Time has an off chance but probably not. I think Better Things has a chance because they loved Louie and this is essentially Pamela Adlon’s version. For now, I will go with:

    1)Atlanta

    2)Veep

    3)Silicon Valley

    4)Black-ish

    5)Better Things

    6)Catastrophe
    ALTERNATES
    7)Dear White People

    8)Insecure

    9) Shameless

    10) Master of None

    11) Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

    12) Fleabag

    13)One Day at a Time

    14)Search Party

    15)A Series of Unfortunate Events

    16)Transparent

    17)Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

    18)You’re the worst

    19)Baskets

    20)Girls

    21)Mom

    22) Jane the Virgin

    23)The Big Bang Theory

    24)New Girl

    25)The Mindy Project

    26)Modern Family

    27)Brooklyn Nine-Nine

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202046236

    This is my breakdown of drama. I went through all of the years to  find trends and I used them to create some crazy predictions.

    2016

    Drama

    The Americans (Fourth Season, Fourth nomination) (Winner)

    Better Call Saul (Second Season, First nomination)

    Game of Thrones (Sixth Season, Sixth nomination)

    The Leftovers (Second Season, First nomination)

    Mr. Robot (First Season, First nomination)

    UnREAL (First Season, First nomination)

    New Program (Only including Drama)

    Mr. Robot (nominated in Drama)

    Jessica Jones (not nominated in Drama)

    Underground (Not nominated in drama)

    UnREAL (nominated in Drama)

    Another interesting year. Two new series got in, Mr. Robot nd Unreal, and two previously snubbed series got nominated, Better Call Saul and The Leftovers were nominated, both had critically acclaimed seasons. What is interesting is that Better Call Saul won new series over Empire the previous year, but Empire was nominated in Dram over Better Call Saul, and despite that Empire was snubbed for season two for Better Call Saul. This tells us that it is more important for a show to win new series than it is to get nominated in drama its first year. The Americans and Game of Thrones were the only previously nominated shows. The flash could not get in despite getting new series the previous year over Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which was nominated in comedy. Two breakthroughs, two new series, two previous nominees. The Leftovers was able to get in despite not being nominated for new series.

     

    2015

    Drama

    The Americans (Third season, Third nomination) (Winner)

    Empire (First Season, First nomination)

    Game of Thrones (Fifth Season, fifth Nomination)

    Justified (Sixth Season, third nomination; snubbed for season one, four, and five)

    Mad Men (Eighth or 7B Season, seventh nomination; snubbed for season 7A)

    New Program (Only Drama)

    Better Call Saul (Not nominated in Drama) (Winner)

    Empire (nominated in Drama and winner of Program)

    The Flash (Not nominated in Drama, nominated over Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt which was nominated in comedy)

    The previous years were sort of boring but this year was much more dynamic. Last year’s winner, The Good Wife, was snubbed for its sixth season. Most previous winners in drama always return only if they are always nominated. The Good Wife was on spotty ground because it was snubbed for two years before it won. Justified was nominated again for its final season despite being snubbed for the two-previous season. The Americans finally won. Mad Men came back. Three spots were open due to Breaking Bad being over, The Good Wife being snubbed, and House of Cards being snubbed for its least acclaimed season. Empire was nominated in Drama, and was the only new drama series to get in, which was interesting because it lost New Series to Better Call Saul despite winning Program. How could it win Program and get a drama series nomination but lose new series to a show that wasn’t nominated in either. OITNB (not sure if it was comedy or drama) could not get in despite winning new series. It is also interesting that The Flash could not get nominated in drama series, but it got nominated in new series over Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which was nominated for comedy. Sleepy Hollow could not get nominated even though it was nominated for new series. One new series, two returning shows snubbed the previous year, two previous nominees.ollow could not get nominated njnjjfffffff

     

    2014

    Drama

    The Good Wife (Fifth Season, third nomination; snubbed season three and four) (Winner)

    The Americans (Second season, second nomination)

    Breaking Bad (Sixth or 5B season, fifth nomination; snubbed season one)

    Game of Thrones (Fourth Season, Fourth nomination)

    House of Cards (Second season, first nomination)

    New Program (only drama)

    Orange Is the New Black (Winner) (Not sure what category it was classified in as it was not nominated in either)

    Sleepy Hollow (Not nominated in Drama)

    What a weird year. Three of the previous nominees returned and two shows that were snubbed previously broke through. No new series were nominated. I am not sure if OITNB was drama or comedy, but it won new series and was nominated in program over The Americans and all comedies, but it somehow couldn’t get a nominated in The Good Wife got in and won for its fifth season even though it was snubbed for it’s third and fourth seasons. House of Cards got in for the first time for its second season. It was nominated for new series the previous year and lost to The Americans, which was nominated in Drama once again. Last years winner Game of Thrones was nominated. Mad Men was snubbed for the first time on the first half of its last season. The only other new drama in New Program was Sleepy Hollow, which could not get a drama nomination.  One breakthrough, three previously nominated shows, one show snubbed previous years but nominated before, no new shows.

    2013

    Drama

    Game of Thrones (Third Season, Third Nomination)(Winner)

    The Americans (First season, First nomination)

    Breaking Bad(Fifth or 5A season, Fourth nomination; snubbed season one)

    Homeland (Second Season, Second nomination)

    Mad Men (Sixth season, sixth nomination)

    New Program (Only Drama)

    The Americans (Nominated in Drama) (Winner)

    Elementary (Not nominated in Drama)

    House of Cards (Not Nominated in Drama)

    Orphan Black (Not nominated in Drama)

    All of the shows were nominated for their previous season except the Americans, which was the only new show. It won new series and was the only new show to break through. Elementery, House of Cards and Orphan Black were nominated in new series and could not get nominated in Drama. Smash and Revenge were nominated in new series the year before without being nominated in Drama and still could not break through. Homeland won new series the previous year as well as getting a drama nomination and it ws able to stay nominated. Breaking Bad was the previous winner and was once again nominated. Four previous nominees, one new show, no breakthroughs.

    2012

    Drama

    Breaking Bad (Fourth Season, Third nomination; snubbed season one) (Winner)

    Game of Thrones (Second Season, Second nomination)

    Homeland (First season, first nomination)

    Mad Men (Fifth season, Fifth nomination)

    Justified (Third Season, Second nomination; snubbed for season one)

    New program (Only Drama)

    Homeland (Nominated in Drama) (Winner)

    Revenge (Not nominated in Drama)

    Smash (Not nominated in Drama)

    In the Drama Category Friday Night Lights and The Good Wife were replaced with Breaking Bad and Homeland. Breaking Bad was previously nominated, but took a break in 2011, so it took its spot back from the final season of Friday Night Lights, which was not eligible because it was over. The Good Wife was snubbed for its third season to be replaced by the first season of Homeland. Four of the five series were nominated for tier previous series. Homeland was the only exception and was nominated for its first season. It was the only new drama show to be nominated. Smash and Revenge were nominated in new program but could not be nominated in Drama. Mad Men was the previous winner and was once again nominated. Four shows nominated for most recent seasons, one new show.

     

    After breaking down the nominees, I found some very interesting results. First let’s talk about returning nominees. If a show wins, it will most likely return unless one thing hppens. As shown by the Good Wife, if a drama show wins right after it was snubbed, it is not safe. However, The Americans has been nominated every year, so until it loses drama series, I will predict it to not be snubbed. Game of Thrones is not eligible. Better Call Saul and the Leftovers broke through for the second season despite being snubbed for the first seasons. Better Call Saul show that show needs to win new series to be nominated in drama the next year, unless you’re the leftovers. What is interesting is that Empire was nominated in Drama over Better Call Saul, but lost new series to Better Call Saul. This shows that for getting in to drama the next year, winning new series is more important than being nominated in drama the first year. In fact, for the last five years, every winner of new series was nominated in drama the next year, except OITNB, which was not nominated in dram or comedy its first years. OITNB is the anomaly. It should be noted that it wasn’t nominated in drama or comedy. I am not sure where it was eligible. I am suspecting comedy. My guess is that this rule only applies for Drama. This makes me think Mr. Robot will come back even though its second season wasn’t s well received. However, once you look farther, a new series nominee and winner is only nominated if it has better reception than the last year. This makes me think that Mr. Robot could be replaced with Underground, the only returning new series nominee with higher critical acclaim. The Leftovers is unique in that its first and only nomination was for its second season. I am suspecting that this is due to a huge jump in quality nd critical praise. UnReal won’t come back as its second season was panned and it lost new series. Jessica Jones is not eligible. Empire won’t come back due to being critically dismissed. I would say Homeland could come back, but it couldn’t even come back for the fourth season. As for new series, many have a chance. The obvious choices are Stranger Things, Westworld, and The Crown. We should also look out for 13 reasons why, The Handmaidens Tale, Legion, This is Us, The Good Fight and Luke Cage. Bates Motel and rectify could break through. Rectify is interesting because it was nominated for miniseries and is now on its final season. I could see it being like the leftovers House of Cards could also return with a final season bump and good reviews. I will go with:

     

    1.       The Americans

    2.       The Leftovers

    3.       Better Call Saul

    4.       Stranger Things

    5.       Rectify

    6.       Underground

    ALTERNATES

    7.       The Handmaiden’s Tale

    8.       Mr. Robot

    9.       The Crown

    10.   Westworld

    11.   This is Us

    12.   13 Reasons why

    13.   Legion

    14.   OITNB (if eligible)

    15.   The Good Fight

    16.   Homeland

    17.   House of Cards

    18.   Luke Cage

    19.   Bates Motel

    20.   UnReal

    21.   Sneaky Pete

     

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    Profile photo of djdj
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    #1202046272

    The TCA voting is pretty wonky, and their inclination to always spread the wealth in recent years has resulted in some weird outcomes. For example, I can almost guarantee that both Stranger Things and This is Us win because they held the zeitgeist so tightly this year, yet they’re both new shows, which means one will probably win new series (most likely This is Us) and one will win Program of the Year (most likely Stranger Things), or vice versa, idk. Either way, it’ll be weird that the winner of program of the year also lost new program of the year at the same time. Unless Atlanta wins program of the year and something else takes comedy. Bottom line though, expect them to spread the wealth. That’s the safest way to predict the TCA’s.

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    Profile photo of RileyRiley
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    #1202046275

    Orange is the New Black was eligible in both drama and comedy.

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    Profile photo of HunterbergfeldHunterbergfeld
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    #1202046280

    Orange is the New Black was eligible in both drama and comedy.

    so is could have been nominated in both simultaneously? If it could have only been in one would it had probobly been nominated?

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