July 11, 2013 at 11:02 pm #285600
Both of these videos were great.
I think the 4 man video went very smoothly, while the 3 man team dragged a bit. You guys covered all of the bases — who will beat Modern family, what will the sixth drama nominee be, who could win if they were nominated, etc. One late correction for Tom. In your video with Daniel, you said that BB has never been nominated for directing; I believe you meant to say writing, because it has a few directing noms.
Overall, fantastic insight from a very knowledgeable panel.July 11, 2013 at 11:06 pm #285601
I enjoyed the videos as well. I guess it’s time to finally submit my Emmys predictions.July 12, 2013 at 10:09 am #285602
Wow, they were all over dropping 30 Rock. I have long said that if this were not the final season of 30 Rock, I would certainly be dropping it. It is just the awards trajectory that it is on. It has not won a single award the last three years and it was dropped from writing, directing and supporting acting last year. I do feel that the effect of a season being the final one is overstated in predicting Emmys; having said that, it does mean something. Just look at Lost: the final season more than doubled its nominations (six to thirteen) from the year before to make a series-best total. Granted, Lost was still a top ten show in the demographic at the time and aired much closer to voting, but it proved that final seasons can certainly be worth something.
On the other hand, look at Boston Legal just a year before. It went from seven nominations in its penultimate year to just four in its final, dropping James Spader who had won two of three nominations in four years of the show and also dropping the series itself from Outstanding Drama where it had been nominated the last two years. Boston Legal was a show that finished with a shortened final season far before the voting deadline, just like 30 Rock. Is 30 Rock a Lost or a Boston Legal?July 12, 2013 at 10:22 am #285603
Another article, perhaps? You’ve been stacking them up these last couple of days.
I think 30 Rock is safe. It’s won too much. Fey and yes Baldwin are too respected. It’s the final season. I’d be pretty peeved if it were dropped. After a couple of seasons that did not deserve series nods it returned to being the funniest show on TV.July 12, 2013 at 10:31 am #285604
I think that that was more of an afterthought, but even if this was its best season in years, no one thought that Lost‘s sixth season was its best.July 12, 2013 at 10:34 am #285605
Lost had a sixth season? In my mind “The Constant” was its series finale.July 12, 2013 at 10:47 am #285606
^ I have been thinking hard about this too for some time. It seems like everyone here is predicting the academy to go crazy for 30 Rock’s final season, but I do not think that will be the case. If you look at the past 10 or so years, the only one of the major comedies to win Best Comedy series in their last season was Everybody Loves Raymond in 2005. Other Major Comedies such as Friends, Frasier, Sex and the City, and Will & Grace all failed to win Best Comedy Series their final season, with some of them not even managing the nomination.
Honestly I would chalk up Everybody Loves Raymond’s win to weaker competition than any sense of farewell nostalgia for the show. Remember, the ATAS is about the least sentimental group of all the major awards academys. I really doubt the academy is feeling the nostalgic, soft-spot for 30 Rock many of the show’s fans may feel. Like demonhog pointed out above, they were dropped from writing, directing, and supporting acting last year.
In addition, 30 Rock has some pretty stiff competition this year, much of it from newer and fresher shows. Not just Modern Family (which has been the academy’s recent favorite), but they also have to contend with Girls, Veep, Louie, and the newly incarnated Arrested Development. Not to mention the more popular than ever Big Bang Theory. As much as most of us may be opposed to it, I am preparing myself for another Modern Family win.
I do not see them being snubbed in best series, but I do think we are overestimating their chances in September. I feel for 30 Rock whatever nominations they earn are going to be the award, not winning several farewell Emmy awards.July 12, 2013 at 10:57 am #285607
I’m not sure about “going crazy” for the final season. I’m certainly not predicting it to win series although it likely will be my favorite show nominated (assuming Enlightened doesn’t get into series and of course it won’t). it’s vulnerable. Getting cut from series wouldn’t surprise me, but I think this being the final season helps it out. And this is a show that won three series Emmys in a row not too long ago.July 12, 2013 at 11:13 am #285608
On the other hand, look at Boston Legal just a year before. It went from seven nominations in its penultimate year to just four in its final, dropping James Spader who had won two of three nominations in four years of the show and also dropping the series itself from Outstanding Drama where it had been nominated the last two years. Boston Legal was a show that finished with a shortened final season far before the voting deadline, just like 30 Rock. Is 30 Rock a Lost or a Boston Legal?
I think Boston Legal nominated for Drama Series in 2007-2008 benefited from the panel system. I don’t remember how the rule had changed from 2006 to 2008, but it had to submit one episode during the nomination process, right? So its snub in the final season when it was back to popular vote was kinda expected, but James Spader’s snub was surprising, especially when the show managed to score two supporting actor nods.
At this point, I drop 30 Rock from series. Yes, the show is a three-time winner, but I can’t decide what I should drop between Girls, Louie and Veep (last year was a fluke?). I may change my prediction to include 30 Rock and kick out Veep in the last minute.July 12, 2013 at 11:25 am #285609
What do you make of Tina Fey’s surprise SAG victory earlier this year? Residual goodwill from hosting the Golden Globes? Farewell victory? Or are the actors actually watching the show?
I think 30 Rock is in and out of Girls, Louie, and Veep, I would probably drop Louie. Although if you asked me tomorrow, I would probably say drop something else.July 12, 2013 at 11:35 am #285610
SAG members have been known for being lazy and keeping giving the wins to the same actors. Baldwin’s seventh individual win and Fey’s fourth individual win may help their chances in their categories, even though they don’t need SAG wins to help them at the Emmy. Betty White won her second SAG from Hot in Cleveland last year, and was snubbed for Emmy later.July 12, 2013 at 11:37 am #285611
I don’t know if SAG is that great of a precursor. In fact, unlike the Oscars, the precursor awards for the Emmys seem to be all over the place.
I wouldn’t put much stock into them — isn’t this the group that gave Alex Baldwin best comedy actor over and over, while neglecting Breaking Bad for drama series?
They’re dead to me.July 12, 2013 at 11:40 am #285612
If you look at the past 10 or so years, the only one of
comedies to win Best Comedy series in their last season was Everybody
Loves Raymond in 2005. Other Major Comedies such as Friends, Frasier,
Sex and the City, and Will & Grace all failed to win Best Comedy
Series their final season, with some of them not even managing the
July 12, 2013 at 11:42 am #285613
- Will & Grace had
been nominated the five years prior (one win) when it missed the series
nomination for its final season. It went from fifteen to ten
nominations its last year.
- Friends had been nominated
the two years prior when it missed the series nomination. It had been
nominated for series six out of its nine seasons (one win) before the
final one. It went from eleven to eight nominations its final year.
won series its first five years. It was dropped from writing two years
later. The year after that, it was dropped from series. It never made
it back into series, but got a writing nomination for its finale. It
went from five to nine nominations its last year.
- Sex and the City
was nominated for series all six seasons (one win). It missed writing
only for its first season (double nominations in two years) and missed
directing only for its first two (one win). It went from thirteen to
eleven nominations its last year.
- The Larry Sanders Show
was nominated every season (zero wins). It was nominated for writing
every year and directing all but its first; it won both awards for the
first time for the series finale, having won just a single Emmy in any
category before that. It went from sixteen to ten nominations its last
- Seinfeld was snubbed from series its first two
years, but was nominated every year after that (one win). It was
nominated for both writing and directing the year before, but was
snubbed from both for its final season. It was snubbed for writing only
for the first season (two wins) until then and directing twice (no
wins). It went from nine to five nominations its final year.
- Everybody Loves Raymond
got no nominations its first two years. After that, it was nominated
for series every year (winning twice, including the final season). It
received its second directing nomination and first in five years for the
series finale. It had been nominated in writing most years, but was
snubbed for the penultimate season, again being nominated for the series
finale. It went from nine to thirteen nominations its last year.
Obviously Baldwin’s wins are mostly irrelevant because he won every single year (that’s why I specifically singled out Fey), but it was her first win since 2009.
I wasn’t necessarily saying that they “needed” SAG wins to help them at the Emmys but that the win for Tina Fey, her first in three years, might suggest support for the show into its final year.
- Will & Grace had
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