July 5, 2014 at 8:03 pm #321619
I loved what you said Joan Cusack! She can defnitely win if she gets nominated. She has a brilliant episode to submit and was abosultely hysterical this season. Along with Emmy Rossum and William H. Macy, her biggest hurdle is getting nominated.July 5, 2014 at 8:50 pm #321620
Awesome chat… I Love what Rob said about being daring and bold with your choices in the guest categories. I’m also predicting Gary Cole.
That being said.. I’d love to throw out a few names I think you guys missed (be bold right?)
Guest Actor Drama – Ben Feldman, Chris Messina, James Wolk
Guest Actress Drama – Dianne Wiest (I have no idea what she did on ‘The Blacklist’ but her name seems too obvious to leave out of the discussion.)
Guest Actor Comedy – Jeremy Renner, Billy Eichner (I know that choice is WAY out there, but he was a huge standout this season on ‘P&R’)
Guest Actress Comedy – Linda Cardellini, Taryn Manning, Sarah Baker (her monologue at the end of her episode was a total knockout performance)July 5, 2014 at 9:08 pm #321621
A few thoughts:
– Love the 2-man format!
– Happy to hear Marcus is betting on Julianne Nicholson; she is quite excellent. Shirley MacLaine was snubbed last year, so I don’t see a nomination this time, although sometimes the Emmys are a year late. I don’t know if that phenomenon applies to name-checking, though. We know that her name doesn’t automatically get her a nomination, but we don’t quite know that about Paul Giamatti yet. Maybe it’s my aversion to Downton or something, but I’m not predicting either of them.
– Margo Martindale and Diana Rigg both had a disappointing amount of screentime compared to last year, but the latter’s show is on an upswing, while the former’s is a big question mark. I’ll stick with GoT.
– I like how Rob is going out on a few limbs. We here at GD like to convince ourselves that we have it all figured out, but there are always a few surprises on nomination day. I may have to reconsider Nathan Lane if a big Good Wife fan doesn’t see anything special.
– I agree with you guys regarding Pascal — what a performance.
– When discussing winners, it is important to note the rule-change concerning the guest categories. In other years, voters would get edited episodes, but for this year, voters have to watch the entire episode. I think that may hurt Pascal a little bit because voters have to watch a ton of unrelated scenes before getting to him (although Dinklage won with that problem), and it helps Morse immensely because the entire finale is about his character’s death. When he is not onscreen, other characters are crying and eulogizing him.
– I’m not seeing the James Earl Jones thing.
– The Tony Hale (guest) prediction is very inspired. I hope Gary Cole gets in as well, but I’m not holding out for it.
– Stephen Merchant has the benefit of being in one of the best MF episodes ever. I’m predicting Nathan Lane (as well as Merchant) because a ton of Emmy voters were at the MF wedding event, and Lane is a huge presence in both episodes. Good point about the Veep vs. Girls trajectories… Christopher Meloni was great.
– For Aduba, the nomination is the hard part, because there may be a small chance Orange underperforms. I think she has a pretty good tape, but Cusack does as well. It’s a shame Emily Bergl won’t be nominated, because she was brilliant in Shameless — she ended up winning my personal award.
– Wow, Rob! I’m predicting Macy and Rossum, but I need some more support. Shameless S4 was indeed their best season, and one of the best of the year (I ended up ranking it #5 overall, and #3 in conventional dramas with BB and GoT the only shows ahead of it). Yes, it was better than Mad Men, True Detective, Homeland, Downton Abbey, The Americans, Masters of Sex, House of Cards, etc. Everyone at GD should watch the show!
– I wish you two superfans discussed Survivor’s chances because of its creative resurgence (I don’t see it coming back based on Emmy inertia, but it certainly deserves to).
– Great video chat, probably the best of the year.July 6, 2014 at 12:40 am #321622
Great chat, you two! Can’t wait to see these nominees, in particular! Big time rooting for spots for:
Nathan LaneJuly 6, 2014 at 1:37 am #321623
My out of there nominations are in Guest Actress for Kristen Chenowith and Gwyenth Paltrow in Glee because both are back and had their funniest performances this season and Kristen has been nominated twice for this role and Gwyenth won this category a few years ago and Glee has had at least one nominee in here since it started. Of course, Glee had its weakest season this year so yeah it could get shut out here but never under estimate the ladies of Glee. Yeah it maybe crazy but who knows.July 6, 2014 at 9:55 am #321624
Great chat, dudes! Specifically the Shameless discussion part. Glad to hear you’re finally giving in to all of my pressure to binge it, Rob. You won’t regret it.
On Comedy Guest: I like Uzo just as much as anyone else in the world, but I will say that if Laverne Cox is nominated she will be difficult to beat. “Lesibian Request Denied” is not only a great tape for Uzo, but an awesome tape for Cox who has far, far more screen time. I’m hopoing Uzo, tho. Of course all that said, Cusack could finally take this as she had a great year on Shameless, or Bergl if deserving miracles happen.July 6, 2014 at 3:53 pm #321625
Speaking of out there potential nominees, what do you guys think about Michael Bowen getting in for Breaking Bad? It’s not really a showy role and doesn’t have much of an arc to it, but for some reason, his name stood out to me when scanning the submissions. We saw Breaking Bad previously get a semi-surprising guest nomination with Mark Margolis for Season 4. What if there are some voters that are still high on Breaking Bad and want to honor it any way the can? Bowen serves as the series’ final antagonist, and he doesn’t have Robert Forster to compete against, given how the latter wasn’t submitted for some reason, so that could make him a big lightning rod for votes (well, unless there’s some unexpected respect for Steven Michael Quezada or Adam Godley).July 6, 2014 at 4:00 pm #321626
I don’t get the rush by the GDerby editors to declare so many races over. Why should we bother than? Do you really want the one unpredictable awards show to feel as predictable as the Oscars now? I think 90% of the races are already decided if I listened to these slugfests and we don’t even know the nominees or submissions yet.July 7, 2014 at 3:24 pm #321627
Rob identifies Carrie Preston as a two-time nominee, but she has actually only been nominated once. That it took so long for her to get in when she has been acclaimed for years, picking up Critics’ Choice nominations all three years that they have had a guest category, is what has me hesitant about predicting her. Martha Plimpton may have foreshadowed Preston’s trajectory of being nominated after being snubbed for her better seasons, winning, then being dropped immediately. Why I am predicting Preston is because she is the only submission in the category for The Good Wife. And although I do think that the resurgence of The Good Wife is being overvalued, how can The Good Wife not get an incumbent winner in when she has no internal competition?
Really, I do not think that Preston or Nathan Lane will be nominated, but I have them in for my prediction points because if I do not predict them, then the only two nominations that I have The Good Wife down for this year (including the Creative Arts) are Christine Baranki and “The Last Call” for writing and I need to be careful not to excessively undervalue the supposed comback of the show.
Rob says that Nathan Lane had nothing to do this year. I just watched his tape and he indeed has nothing to do in his eight minutes of screen time. But in his tape last year, he only had four! They nominated him for not doing anything last year on both The Good Wife and Modern Family, so I do not see why they would not this year, especially without internal competition from Michael J. Fox. Going through the thread for The Good Wife after “The Decision Tree” aired, I like how nobody brought up the possibility of it as a submission for Nathan Lane or commented on Lane’s appearance in it at all. That is how much he should not be a factor in this race.
Patricia Arquette is an Emmy winner, but she also earned only two nominations for Medium, so is not an Emmy favourite and Boardwalk Empire has been declining in nominations, losing Steve Buscemi and Kelly MacDonald.
Allison Janney is the frontrunner, but I do not think that this is as open-and-shut as Marcus for the same reason that Robin Wright is not a lock in my eyes. She has a great storyline, but this is a restrained performance. In her favour is that voters have obviously responded to Janney’s style of acting in the past.
Rob is predicting Eddie Izzard for Hannibal and this category does throw curveballs, but I cannot see that happening. The top nine in this category (Bridges-Morse-Bucatinsky-Lane-Giamatti-Hamlin-Pascal-Morton-Baker) are so neck-and-neck and I would add Jeremy Davies to the mix, since he is yet to miss a nomination for Justified and even won last time. Ben Feldman was also nominated the last time that he submitted here, so I would also give him an edge over Izzard.
Uzo Aduba is going to suffer under the new judging system in which guests submit their whole episodes, although I do not think that she would have fared that well under the old system either. She has just five minutes of screen time in her fifty-five minute submission.
I have Andrew Rannells in seventh. I do not think that the decline of Girls actually hurts him. He seems kind of like the Carrie Preston of Girls in that he is a recurring actor who has been good on the show for years, but takes a while to get recognized.