July 3, 2014 at 6:27 pm #321244
Watch the new video slugfest or listen to the audio podcast version:
Chris Beachum, Daniel Montgomery, Paul Sheehan and I come out swinging. Pls pardon me ahead of time for doing my worst-ever Nancy Grace Interrogation imitation. As many of you know, I used to be a regular guest on her HLN and Court TV shows and I’ve been watching too much of her show of late. Blame summer boredom.
And don’t forget to watch our Drama Series Slugfest — HERE:July 3, 2014 at 10:22 pm #321246
A few thoughts:
-I’ve made my case of why I don’t think Louie is getting in
this year (in short: too much competition + bizarre and drama-filled season +
-There have been twenty-eight episodes of Veep so far (8 for
the first season, and 10 for the next two seasons).
-Thank you, Tom, for bringing up Emmy Rossum. Keep the dream
-Chris has an interesting theory regarding Merritt Wever,
but I ended up keeping her because of her inexplicable victory last year. The
people who win one year (and are snubbed the next) have huge moments in their
episodes that you can point to and say: “oh, I understand why they won”. That
was the case for Jon Cryer, and it’s the case for Jeff Daniels. Merritt Wever,
however, had nothing notable in her tape, so she won because of general love
for the character! If love is that deep, then she should have no problem
returning to the category. In other words, Cryer and Daniels won for their
tapes, and Wever won for outside factors. Those outside factors are still
there.July 4, 2014 at 1:15 am #321247
This was a good slugfest. My predictions are looking very, VERY similar with Chris’s. I hope we both turn out right, specially about the Wever snub.
I still think Sillicon Valley will get no love, outside of maybe a Writing or Directing nod. I honestly don’t get the initial praise about the show.July 4, 2014 at 2:09 am #321248
OITNB was much funnier than this season of Louie. Not only that, but if you go outside the top critics, you will hear a decent amount of backlash about the season.
Plus, there is a lot of competition, and FX does not have a good track record with their comedies. I will put my faith in Netflix, Arrested Development snub be damned. Plus, OITNB has a ton of pop culture buzz, so their trajectories are not really comparable. Finally, you only addressed one of my points, but not the other two — both of which I believe hold considerable merit.July 4, 2014 at 2:51 am #321249
I would argue that it was more comedic than Louie’s season but not funnier. The few funniest episodes of the season were more hilarious than all thirteen of ‘Orange’s episodes. I also don’t see much of a backlash. This season’s reviews were more divisive than others, but it remained a critics’ favorite. Having said all that I could see it being dropped. I don’t think it will be however.July 4, 2014 at 4:28 am #321250
If there are seven nominees, I think it will get in.
With six, I just can’t find room for it. There is no way HBO goes down to one nominee in this category when they had 3 just a few years ago… so I still have Silicon Valley.
Remember, Girls and Veep were not seen as surefire nominees for their first season, but they surprised on nomination day. I would be shocked to see Girls dropped, and SV not get in.July 4, 2014 at 5:57 am #321251
This was a brilliant slugfest. Thanks Tom, Chris, Daniel and Paul. Some great insights.July 4, 2014 at 9:20 am #321252
I felt a yawn coming on just hearing that JLD, Parsons, and Janney will all likely win.
And the hate on Wever by one of the editors was over the top and unprofessional. She was never 7th in my eyes. I had her tape 4th behind Krakowski, Bowen, and Blossom. She was certainly better than Vergara, Lynch, and Chulmsky. So if she was in 7th that’s on Goldderby. I love how he trashes her than even drops her out this year for Margo Martindale for The Millers?July 4, 2014 at 10:30 am #321253
I love things you said about Emmy Rossum! She and Mindy Kaling are the ones who could sneak in.July 4, 2014 at 5:12 pm #321254
While I can understand thinking that Merritt Wever will be snubbed because winners get snubbed sometimes, it is oversimplifying things if you ask me.
When I think of people who were nominated one year and snubbed the next in recent years, some of the first examples that come to mind are Kyra Sedgwick, Jon Cryer and Jeff Probst. Sedgwick was on her fifth nomination for a TNT show that had only ever received one other nomination (for Emmy magnet guest Beau Bridges). Few people make it to five nominations and fewer make it to six, even on more popular shows on less obscure networks. So if you do not factor her win into the equation, her snub for the sixth season of The Closer is not surprising at all. And why should her win be a factor? It was clearly based off of her tape and not general popularity or Julianna Margulies would have won.
When he won lead actor, Jon Cryer was on his seventh nomination for his role for a show in its ninth season that was no longer the highest-rated comedy on television, had not gotten a series nomination in four years and that had fallen to what was nearly its lowest nominations since its first season. Really, the only card that Cryer had to play that year was sympathy for the Charlie Sheen exit. That had worn off by the next year and he was snubbed. Yes, he won in the middle, but it was because he had the best tape in the category, which is irrelevant to how someone does in a popular vote because under a hundred would have watched the tapes in that category and thousands are voting during the nominations phase.
Jeff Probst was consistently said to have the best tape in his category, so we can say that he won off tape. If he had been more popular in general, we would have seen Survivor with broader academy support. It had been years since Survivor had been nominated for series when they introduced the host category and one would think that Probst and Survivor would have roughly the same share of fans, with a slight edge to Probst because some shows have really forgettable hosts. When Probst was winning host, Survivor was nominated for just two other Emmys each year. Meanwhile, The Amazing Races was fairly consistently actually winning series and scoring seven nominations annually. Probst was probably nominated just barely every year that he won host and he was eventually pushed out as Survivor aged, ratings fell and voters moved on to new things and Betty White.
Jeff Daniels fits this mould of barely getting a nomination, then winning off tape. The Newsroom was a critical disappointment and its newness had almost worn off by the Emmys because it had aired a year earlier. Daniels ended up being the only guild nomination for the show that translated to an Emmy nomination, as the Emmys snubbed its guild-nominated directing, art direction and casting and guild-winning editing and sound.
People tend to win Emmys either based off tape or because they were the most popular actor/character in a field of weak tapes. Merritt Wever certainly did not win with a strong tape and we know that it was a field of weak tapes. Furthermore, whereas Survivor, The Closer, Two and a Half Men and potentially The Newsroom were on their very last legs with the Emmys when they got their last acting wins, we cannot necessarily say the same thing about Nurse Jackie. Nurse Jackie still got (a record-tying) three acting nominations last year, as well as a casting nomination, even though the show was in its fifth season and that category favours new shows (30 Rock is the only comedy or drama in the last decade to win for a season other than its first or second). And hey, it beat Modern Family for sound mixing. If you have read my articles, you know how important sound mixing and casting are, relative to other technical categories in indicating support for a series. Say what you will about sound being irrelevant or three acting nominations not being that many, but the point stands that Wever was not a nomination running on fumes.
Shows and performances eventually do get dropped by the Emmys and that is why I only have Wever in fourth, but her situation is not comparable enough to people who were snubbed after winning in the past for me not to predict her nomination.July 4, 2014 at 10:26 pm #321255
Riley, what about Eric Stonestreet? He was in a popular show that the Emmys love, and still got snubbed last year, after winning in 2012. The buzz hasn’t worn off -okay, we’re all tired of MF, but still, it’s the Series winner for the past 4 years!- and the show wasn’t that old.July 6, 2014 at 12:59 am #321256
That is a good point, but we do know that support for the show is dwindling and this is a show with a lot of supporting actors and that still managed to get three of them in. I do not think that he will get back in, but we also technically do not know if his snub was a fluke. Getting back in would separate him from Sedgwick and Probst.July 6, 2014 at 6:35 am #321257
I felt a yawn coming on just hearing that JLD, Parsons, and Janney will all likely win.
And the hate on Wever by one of the editors was over the top and unprofessional. She was never 7th in my eyes. I had her tape 4th behind Krakowski, Bowen, and Blossom. She was certainly better than Vergara, Lynch, and Chulmsky. So if she was in 7th that’s on Goldderby. I love how he trashes her than even drops her out this year for Margo Martindale for The Millers?
Yeah, agreed. It’s why I don’t bother watching the slugfest videos anymore. Too smug and unprofessional lately.
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