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What are your long shot Emmy predictions?

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  • Sócrates Ochoa
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    #360956

    Like Rob says, “no guts, no glory”. What are your long shots predictions for this year Emmys? I was just making some changes in the 2nd to 6th places in some categories but I don’t have the courage yet to put something bold in 1st place.

    I was REALLY tempted to put Elisabeth Moss in 1st place because my gut tells me that the popular vote and the sentimentality of Mad Men ending should come in play somehow this Sunday besides Hamm and Person To Person winning, but right now I moved her up in 3rd just below Davis and Henson.

    I’m also thinking in putting Hendricks and the Boardwalk Empire finale in first, but right now I have both in second place. Probably my boldest prediction is David Oyelowo in movie/mini actor. Don’t how much of a long shot is, but I think he has just enough good will from his peers after being snubbed for Selma that actually would want to reward him now.

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    Luan Queiroz
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    #360958

    I put Robin Wright in first some weeks ago. She’s so good in House of Cards season 3 and sure the voters love her show. Empire and HTGAWM didn’t have much support by Academy and maybe this hurt Viola and Taraji’s chances. I don’t know. Theirs shows seems so soapy to win a major category. Cicely Tyson’s loss last weekend can be a proof this. Viola and Taraji are so popular and well-respect actress, there are much buzz about them right now, they really can win, but I still pick Robin Wright and I’m roting for her anyway! 

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    Sócrates Ochoa
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    #360959

    I think the same way. Probably I’m gonna stick with Davis in 1st until the very end, even when I don’t like her show much. Probably will drop Henson down to 3rd or 4th and move up Wright in 3rd or even 2nd. I didn’t like House Of Cards that much this season, but Wright was so good and her submission is one of the best.

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    nahborghi
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    #360960

    I put Claire Danes in first. She’s well liked, her show made a comback.. I think Viola and Taraji will split votes.

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    Luan Queiroz
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    #360961

    socra8a, what I more liked about HOC last season was how much Michael Kelly and Robin Wright shined!!! It as a great season for these two actors in my opinion. nahborhi, I can see Claire Danes winning, but there’s no buzz about her perfomance and she picked a bad tape (WHY NOT REDUX? WHY NOT REDUX, Crazy Carry? hahaha – tapes don’t matter anymore, I know). If the voters would wanna reward an “old” nominee, I think Wright or even Moss are a better choice. 

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    Andrew Eng
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    #360962

    According to the predictions center, my three biggest longshot predictions are Louie for Comedy Writing, Robin Wright for Drama Lead Actress, and Kyle Chandler for Drama Lead Actor. We know Louis C.K. is a favorite among the writers branch and he’s won this category 2 of the last 4 years, not to mention his wins in Variety Special Writing. I think he wins again. Robin Wright has a great submission (Chapter 32), House of Cards is loved by the actors branch (5 nominations this year and Reg E. Cathey winning last week), and Wright has been around for a while and is well-respected. And of the frontrunners, she’s the only one in a Drama Series nominee.

    As for Kyle Chandler, I know this is probably the riskiest prediction I’m making. The new voting system would ostensibly favor Jon Hamm, and there is a lot of buzz for him. . But no Mad Men actor has ever won (0 wins out of 34 nominations), and I’m not so sure that all of sudden changes now. Plus, when Hamm was the supposed frontrunner in the category and not competing with Bryan Cranston, he lost to Chandler who had a less showy tape AND less buzz. That would indicate a lot of respect for Chandler, as very few actors win their first Emmy for their last season (and for a show that was ignored by the voters until the fourth season). 

    Chandler’s back now with Bloodline and, while the show didn’t score many nominations, the fact that he and Ben Mendelsohn (the two best things about Bloodline) got nominated despite the low buzz indicates that enough voters watched the show and saw how good both men were. In Chandler’s case, the performance he gave was a far cry from Friday Night Lights, and those who saw/voted for him for that series will be impressed by the 180-degree-about-face-turn he does on Bloodline. That kind of range is catnip to award voters (e.g. Bryan Cranston going from Malcolm in the Middle to Breaking Bad and winning for the latter). While submissions may matter less now, if enough voters watch “Part 12”, he can pull off the upset again. I guess the only bad thing if Chandler wins is that he will be dragged through the mud for “denying” Hamm his chance at an Emmy, and Chandler doesn’t deserve that scorn. 

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    nahborghi
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    #360963

    Yeah, I had her in 5th before the Creative Emmys, because her tape had nothing. In previous years, she would be a lock with Redux. And I agree she has 0 buzz, but since the Margot Martindale win, I keep thinking… are they really listening to anything at all? I think she is respected in the industry, and I figured.. if there’s one category that is going to be crazy, its this one. Anything can happen. So I put my 500 bet on it.

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    Zayner
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    #360964

    Mine is really crazy, but Niecy Nash! I don’t know, I just have a weird, gut feeling about it. 

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    24Emmy
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    #360965

    Chandler’s back now with Bloodline and, while the show didn’t score many nominations, the fact that he and Ben Mendelsohn (the two best things about Bloodline) got nominated despite the low buzz indicates that enough voters watched the show and saw how good both men were. In Chandler’s case, the performance he gave was a far cry from Friday Night Lights, and those who saw/voted for him for that series will be impressed by the 180-degree-about-face-turn he does on Bloodline. That kind of range is catnip to award voters (e.g. Bryan Cranston going from Malcolm in the Middle to Breaking Bad and winning for the latter). While submissions may matter less now, if enough voters watch “Part 12”, he can pull off the upset again. I guess the only bad thing if Chandler wins is that he will be dragged through the mud for “denying” Hamm his chance at an Emmy, and Chandler doesn’t deserve that scorn. 

    Boo hoo. Those people will need to be constantly reminded that their precious Jon Hamm lost 4 times to Bryan Cranston. If you’re going to blame someone might as well pick the person who beat them half the time they were nominated.

     

    My upset picks are William H. Macy, Homeland in directing, and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver for Variety Talk.

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #360966

    I put Robin Wright in first after Creative Arts and am leaving her there. I am also tempted to put Parks and Recreation in first for Comedy Series just on the infinitesimal chance it happens I can have all the bragging rights. The guest categories screwed up my score enough anyway.

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    Tonbone
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    #360967

    I am picking John Oliver, Robin Wright, Anthony Anderson on a whim that he is so similar to Jon Cryer when he won 

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    Tonbone
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    #360968

    I am picking John Oliver, Robin Wright, Anthony Anderson on a whim that he is so similar to Jon Cryer when he won 

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    Laurent
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    #360969

    Mine is really crazy, but Niecy Nash! I don’t know, I just have a weird, gut feeling about it. 

    Just got this feeling too, Allison Janney is strong, and for a lot of people Anna Chlumsky can beat her but I really think Niecy Nash is the threat. She was the biggest suprised of all the Emmy nominations and I think the Emmy voters while voting are seeing her and just say “Hey, I’ve never saw her nominated, so i’m just gonna vote for her” and I think she’s gonna win or at least gonnna be on the top 3.

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    Anonymous
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    #360970

    I think Joanne Froggatt is going to win. Never ever seen Heady as a front-runner.

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #360971

    I’m going with a long shot among long shots, Kate McKinnon. This year showed a bit of a breakout for sketch stars in the acting categories, and who better to get the win than the one snl cast member who has consistently excelled above the rest in the past two seasons. Janney could very well take it, but I would honestly rather get it wrong with a long shot than just pick the consensus frontrunner and be right. BORING!

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