April 20, 2014 at 11:35 am #316493
What category will most likely come down to episode submissionsApril 20, 2014 at 11:46 am #316495
All of them, but to play along lead actor drama.April 20, 2014 at 12:03 pm #316496
Bryan Cranston could have the best tape for drama lead actor, but voters might want to be a part of the McConaissance. Claire Danes could have the best tape for drama lead actress, but voters might be done with Homeland. Last year was the first in many that drama supporting actress was not an upset and Maggie Smith is still kicking around and fresh off a SAG win. Jim Parsons has won comedy lead actor without the best tape, but the broadest, before. The Modern Family people could have the best tapes like they did last year, but be overlooked because voters are tired of them. Guess what I voted for.April 20, 2014 at 12:08 pm #316497
Drama Actress, Robin Wright and Julianna Margulies have tapes that can owe themselves to win, and inspite of Homeland’s poor buzz and that this a lesser showing than years past, Claire Danes too. All of them matter of course but I think that’s where submissions need to be done with great care.
Also comedy series: I think voters will want to look elsewhere this year so they need to be convinced in the tapes that others submit. I think OITNB needs to go as comedic as possible because during voting time they’ll have buzz that’s overwhelming compared to the competition (provided they’re nominated)April 20, 2014 at 12:11 pm #316498
The new season of Orange is the New Black will have a lot of buzz during the nominations phase, but as we have seen with these Netflix shows, they fade very fast.April 20, 2014 at 1:38 pm #316499
I don’t believe tapes matter as much for the comedy lead categories – the voters have their clear favorites. Tapes are more important for the supporting categories. I also think the submissions will be important for Drama Actress. Anyway, I rarely base predictions strictly on on tapes; these awards are too arbitrary to think tapes alone can determine the winner.April 21, 2014 at 6:06 am #316500
Episode submissions aren’t everything, but they do matter. Since Emmy has no real precursors when it comes to winner, tapes play a role. And with the preferential vote, it even makes the races more unpredictable, especially in a race where no tapes stand out, like both Comedy Supporting races last year.
I think voters in comedy acting categories look for broad comedy, so it’s easy for Jim Parsons and JLD to stand out in a field with subtly comedic, and dramedic performances. Jon Cryer of all people managed to beat Jim Parsons because he had a physical comedy-heavy episode. Eric Stonestreet’s second win shouldn’t have come as a surprise considering his tape. Anna Faris, with the nature of her show and her character, if nominated, could find a tape that gives JLD a run for her money.April 21, 2014 at 10:29 am #316501
I think Lead Actress in a Drama is where it will matter most.
Robin Wright and Julianna Margulies will both be extremely competitive depending on their submissions. As will Mariska Hargitay and Tatiana Maslany if they manage to get nominated. Of course Claire Danes is always a spoiler and a dark horse. Kerry Washington won’t matter much, as she doesn’t have a big episode this year like she did last year. Elisabeth Moss and Michelle Dockery will not matter, as they are very unlikely to win! (Of course, anything can happen).
Depending on the nominees this year, this could be one of the most competitive categories in years. These nominees will make this category competitive as hell!
Claire Danes – Homeland
Mariska Hargitay – Law & Order: SVU (“Surrender Benson” or “Beasts Obsession”)
Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife (“The Last Call” or “A Material World”)
Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
Kerry Washington – Scandal (“Vermont is For Lovers, Too”)
Robin Wright – House of Cards (“Chapter 17”)April 21, 2014 at 1:15 pm #316502
I want to say all the above BUT I went with Lead Actor in a dramaApril 21, 2014 at 1:41 pm #316503
Submissions probably matter in all categories. There’s no real locks for wins this year. The closest to that would be JLD in Comedy Lead Actress, but I could see Amy Poehler taking it easily. Anna Gunn doesn’t even have it secure yet. Aaron Paul has a good chance for another win, but Mandy Patinkin was basically a co-lead and had lots of great material.
I’ve obviously communicated that I think Claire Danes has a winning tape in “The Star,” but I think Kerry Washington can compete with “The Price of Fair and Free Elections” (the finale). Robin Wright doesn’t have enough in “Chapter 17” to win, but Julianna Margulies will surely get something good.