What last night’s new system voting and 4 acting wins told us about who will win next week

Home // Forums // Television // What last night’s new system voting and 4 acting wins told us about who will win next week

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 10 total)
Created
2 years ago
Last Reply
2 years ago
9
replies
531
views
6
users
3
2
1
  • montana82
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 14th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360698

    What did last night tell us exactly?

    1. Throw out the tapes.  Most of those who took the time to view them, had Martindale in 6th place and Cathey in 5th or 6th.  Cusack’s was ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th and Whitford around 3rd.  There is no possible way the majority of voters based their votes on tapes because there was way to justify a vote for those Drama Guest winners if they did.  So if your thinking of ruling anyone out based on a bad tape or thinking someone is a lock based on a great tape, rethink.

    2. You don’t need to be a nominee from a Best series nominee to win as Shameless and The Americans haven’t proven to be on Emmys radar much. 

    3.  Industry respect for the actor matters.  All the actors who won are “actors actors” who are respected and well liked.

    4.  Narrative outcries from journalists can mean something.  One of the big stories of the Emmy nominations this year and in recent years, “The Americans was robbed!”.  Voters had that in mind certainly when they checked off Martindale’s 2 minute coffee drinking “performance”.  This factor has me thinking this helps another certain female past snub who journalists/fans have screamed about being robbed for years.  Find out below.

    5. Could there be vote splitting going on with nominees nominated in more than 1 category?  Many thought that Gaby Hoffman and Jon Hamm would win the guest Comedy Emmys.  Most thought Allison Janney would be the one to upset Tyson.  Christine Baranski also was thought to have a chance.  Perhaps voters looking to spread their votes around voted for them in 1 category and there was no consensus of which category to vote for them in leading to them winning neither?  I’m sure most of Hamm’s supporters wouldn’t do that, but I do think it possibly cost both Hoffman, Janney, and Baranski not only their categories last night but next week as well.

    So who is gonna win?

    Locks

    Lead Actor Comedy:  Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

    He is my only lock and the biggest lock in my opinion.  Yes even bigger than Jon Hamm.  The only way Tambor was gonna lose?  The tapes.  And voters not finding his performance funny enough.  But with the voters clearly not viewing anything, Tambor is a stone cold lock.  No way does someone like Forte pull it off without viewers voting based on tapes and “funny” or industry respect.  Tambor has the respect.  The buzz.  The timely subject manner. And the voters clearly responded to the show and last night has the results to prove it.

    Frontrunners

    Lead Actor Drama:  Jon Hamm, Mad Men

    What?   He’s not a lock like Tambor?  Nope.  1. Because until a Mad Men actor wins I won’t believe it.  And 2. If there is such a desire to award him,why didn’t he win last night in a popular vote against Whitford?  I mean if your so fired up to vote for Hamm because he hasn’t won before, wouldn’t you check his name off twice to make up for this mortal sin?  To make up for this past crime?  But they didn’t. 

    But most importantly, the category is FILLED with respected ACTORS ACTORS who are widely respected.  Yes even more so than Hamm.  Spacey, Odenkirk, Chandler, Liev,  even Daniels.  Especially watch out for Spacey in a straight popular vote.

    That said Hamm’s narrative still makes him the frontrunner.  But I’d be worried until the envelope is opened.

    Lead Actress Comedy:  Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep

    Dreyfus still the frontrunner as she is beloved in the industry as is her show by the Academy.

    But…but…with the tapes not mattering…..that opens the door for people who 1. think it’s a crime Poehler has never won   2. Adore Amy Schumer  and 3. Lily Tomlin and Lisa Kudrow, respected actor.  Voters have the out to vote against Dreyfus by throwing the episodes out. 

    Toss Ups

    Supporting Actress Comedy

    Uh oh.  Allison Janney not a lock?  Have I gone mad?  Perhaps.  But repeat after me the big takeaway from this new voting system.  TAPES. DON’T. MATTER.  That’s what made Janney such a favorite against this competition in the first place.  In her first test of this new system she lost a popular vote to Martindale drinking coffee for 2 minutes.  And perhaps some voters opted to support her in that category and throw this one to a newbie.  In a popular vote, that can happen. 

    Watch out for Anna Chulmsky, Gaby Hoffman, and yes even Jane Krakowski.   All nominees from shows more popular than Mom.  All past nominees which shows a level of industry respect.  And the voters are clearly responding  well to Veep and Transparent with the wins to prove it.

    Bialik and Bowen’s shows are clearly on the down swing with the academy  and I think Getting On too off radar for Nash.

    Lead Actress Drama

    The only category where any of the 6 could win.

    So how do they stack up based on the results last night?

    Tier 1: Tatiana Maslany and Viola Davis

    FIrst let me say, I hated Maslany’s tape and understood nothing going on.  That was her biggest draw back.  And now we know they dont even watch the tapes.  The voters have clearly heard the criticism of snubbing The Americans and decided to make up for it with giving it a win.  The noise has been EQUALLY loud about the snubs of Maslany.  Perhaps they will feel equally pressured into rewarding her and making up for the past perceived snubs.

    Viola Davis is the epitome of the respected actors actor.  With 2 recent SAG wins in Lead actress in film and tv to prove it.  She may win solely on that factor and nothing else in a popular vote.  I don’t think the Tyson loss hurts her.

    Tier 2: Robin Wright,  Claires Danes, Elisabeth Moss

    Poor Robin Wright.  She finally picks a great episode and now that means nothing.  If this were the old system, she would be my #1 pick.  Can she still win?  Sure.  Voters love her show.  But her biggest positive was her episode.  And voters likely based their vote on something else.

    Claire Danes is beloved and is the only one who has shown she has the goods to go all the way here.  Voters clearly watch the show as they snubbed it after a bad season only to bring it back after a good one.  Her biggest drawback?  The episode.  And, it doesn’t matter.

    Don’t rule out Elisabeth.  Tapes don’t matter.  If the Mad Men sentiment is strong, it could pull them all to the win.  I find Mad Men boring.  But the shows fans think its the greatest thing in the history of the world and would do something as irrational as vote to give a  supporting player a lead actress win.

    These 3 women are all in Best Drama series nominees and all are popular with the voters.

    TIer 3: Taraji P. Henson

    Yes she has the ratings.  But ratings does not equal academy popularity or industry respect.  THe show was snubbed in multiple categories when it was obviously seen by voters.  Her good episode submission likely wasn’t watched and in terms of actor respect, I’m not sure it’s as high as some of the other ladies.  I think her chances are overrated in comparison to some others.

    Supporting Actress Drama

    With episode submissions out the window, you cannot rule out Joanne Froggatt and Emilia Clarke anymore.  2 popular characters from 2 shows liked by the Academy.  DA fans maybe the most fanatical of the bunch.  And she has the glow off the Globe win which in past years meant nothing but in a popular vote could help steer voters in a direction.

    Christine Baranski is the actors actor.  But did her double nomination lead to some of her supporters splitting votes and opting to reward her in guest Actress Comedy. 

    Uzo had the episode but that doesn’t matter now.  She can clearly win a  popular vote as evidence of her SAG win.

    Lena Headey won’t have to worry about voters not sitting through 40 minutes to get to her big scene because they didn’t watch it.  BUT she does have to worry now about her and Emilia Clarke splitting GOT popular vote support.

    Christina Hendricks will have sentimental Mad Men voters and this new system could only help her more than the old system did!

    Again a toss up.  But leaning to Hendricks and Uzo as i fear Emilia is gonna take GOT support from Lena.  And I wouldn’t be surprised if the DA contingent ban together and vote Froggatt.

    Supporting Actor Drama

    Combine actors actor and show support, throw out tapes, and I gotta think Jonathan Banks, Peter Dinklage, and yes Jim Carter are out front.

    Supporting Actor Comedy

    Tapes not mattering really hurts a deserving newcomer like Tituss Burgess.  He can still do it as he was one of the big breakout characters this past season and I think voters know that but in the old system this win would have been a lock, now he’s in toss up..

    They like Hale and are not sick of Veep.  They like Burrell and are sick of Modern Family.

    Watch out for Adam Driver.  Actors love this guy.  And with tapes not mattering, he is in this.

    Reply
    nkb325
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 6th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360700

    I agree with most of what you said. However I do think it’s possible that the sentiment isn’t for Jon Hamm to win an emmy, but for DON DRAPER to win an emmy. Even I when making my predicitions was thinking “I’m so mad the guest acting categories come before the drmama categories, because if Jon Hamm finally wins an emmy for Mad Men and it’s his SECOND emmy it will be a much less satisfying moment”. Honestly that’s part of the reason that I lucked out and switched my prediction to Bradley Whitford, it was kind of wishful thinking that Hamm would win his first emmy for playing Don. I have no idea if voters feel that way, but its possible that that is the way their sentiment is leaning. 

    AND POEHLER FOR THE WIIIIN 

    ReplyCopy URL
    Anonymous
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360701

    Yes  Modern Family got less nominations this year but they won at the Creative Arts Emmy’s for the first time since 2012, I think you should not count out anything MF related just yet.

    Also Tambor is nowhere near a lock Oscar nominees William H. Macy, Don Cheadle, and TV Academy sweetheart Louis C.K. can still pull upsets. But I still think Will Forte has that award in his pocket. 

    ReplyCopy URL
    montana82
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 14th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360702

    Modern Family’s win last night at the CArts did not come from the acting branch who are the only ones allowed to vote in the acting categories.

    Tambor is a lock.  I don’t know how anyone can argue otherwise at this point.  Whitford was no sure thing and he won for the show.  The voters like the show. What obstacle does Tambor have for the win? Tambor has swept everything.  And the tapes are not being watched.  How can Forte pull it off if voters are not watching the tapes?  Macy, Cheadle, and CK have respect but they have no where near the timely topic of transgender and buzz of Transparent.  I’d give Macy a slight chance but I don’t see it happening.

    ReplyCopy URL
    SSV
    Member
    Joined:
    Jul 22nd, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360703

    You really think they won’t watch Lena’s episode when “Mother’s Mercy” is up for both directing and writing???

    Im sure Cersei’s big scene had a lot to do with those nominations.

    But I do think Aduba is becoming the front runner 

    ReplyCopy URL
    montana82
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 14th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360704

    Maybe some voters watch tapes (certainly no all of them as I doubt they have that much time) but there are a thousand plus members voting in the acting categories and as the absurd wins of Margo Martindale and Reg E. Cathey showed, there is no possible way they voted based on what was on those tapes.  If they did watch tapes there would have been no way to justify a vote for either.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Riley
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 11th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360705

    Great analysis, montana82.  I would say that the acting winners came
    from two categories last night.  They were either extremely popular
    themselves or their shows were.  And I say “extremely” popular to
    differentiate stuff like Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt that does
    not cut it as widely popular in the academy despite a series
    nomination.  And of course, tapes had zero to do with the winners.  So
    that should eliminate a lot of contenders.  Where it gets tricky are the
    contenders right on the borderline of whether their shows or they are
    extremely popular, namely Jonathan Banks and Allison Janney.

    Also Tambor is nowhere near a lock Oscar nominees
    William H. Macy, Don Cheadle, and TV Academy sweetheart Louis C.K. can
    still pull upsets. But I still think Will Forte has that award in his
    pocket.

    I am utterly baffled by how you arrived at this
    conclusion.

    ReplyCopy URL
    DS0816
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 15th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360706

    I’m interesting in three things:

    1) Is Mad Men going to finally leave with at least one acting Emmy?

    2) Will the fact that Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt didn’t win either guest-acting Emmy catapult at least one of its nominees in supporting-acting ranks—Tituss Burgess and Jane Krakowski—to prevail?

    3) Are the eight creative-arts Emmys for Game of Thrones good or bad for its chances with also winning in the prime-time ceremony’s more general categories? (Some may feel it can work out either way.)

    ReplyCopy URL
    montana82
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 14th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360707

    Great analysis, montana82.  I would say that the acting winners came
    from two categories last night.  They were either extremely popular
    themselves or their shows were.  And I say “extremely” popular to
    differentiate stuff like Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt that does
    not cut it as widely popular in the academy despite a series
    nomination.  And of course, tapes had zero to do with the winners.  So
    that should eliminate a lot of contenders.  Where it gets tricky are the
    contenders right on the borderline of whether their shows or they are
    extremely popular, namely Jonathan Banks and Allison Janney.[quote=”TWRamazanetin”]Also Tambor is nowhere near a lock Oscar nominees
    William H. Macy, Don Cheadle, and TV Academy sweetheart Louis C.K. can
    still pull upsets. But I still think Will Forte has that award in his
    pocket.I am utterly baffled by how you arrived at this
    conclusion.

    [/quote]

    Exactly! It’s very tricky. The results of the Emmys in each category will be something to study for some time.  It will very telling because a lot of these people are just gonna base it on who they like personally or who is on their favorite show or both.    Sounds kinda like the Oscars!  Uh oh.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Riley
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 11th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #360708

    In her first test of this new system she lost a
    popular vote to Martindale drinking coffee for 2 minutes.

    It gets
    funnier everytime that I read it.

    Are the eight creative-arts Emmys for Game of Thrones good
    or bad for its chances with also winning in the prime-time ceremony’s
    more general categories? (Some may feel it can work out either
    way.)

    ?

    ReplyCopy URL
Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 10 total)
Reply To: What last night’s new system voting and 4 acting wins told us about who will win next week

You can use BBCodes to format your content.
Your account can't use Advanced BBCodes, they will be stripped before saving.

Similar Topics
Reis - Aug 19, 2017
Television
hats-off - Aug 19, 2017
Television