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March 5, 2016 at 1:05 pm #368162
Last year, a crazy thing happened. 8 women were nominated for supporting comedy actress. Now since most likely 6 will get nominated this year, two of last year’s nominees will get snubbed by default. Even if a tie ocurs, I don’s see there being more than 7 nominees here. So, which of the 8 is most likely to not come back this year?March 5, 2016 at 1:17 pm #368164
I wonder if that tie happened because of the stiff competition or the complete opposite? Because if there are only few actors who got fairly enough votes, the system would have to pass on to others with low scores. This also applies to Comedy Lead Actor(7) and we all know how embarassing that category is.
I hope the answer is Bowen&Bialik. But logic tells Bialik and Nash.
Either way, Nash’s nomination over Vergara will always be remembered as one of the most inspiring things Emmys ever done. (Which isn’t saying much, but still)March 5, 2016 at 1:25 pm #368165
IMO, Chlumsky and Hoffman are only locks. Both of them are in shows with increasing popularity, so there is no reason why they should be snubbed now.March 5, 2016 at 2:01 pm #368167
They nominated her for Girls.March 5, 2016 at 5:23 pm #368168
I think Chlumsky, Janney, McKinnon, Hoffman, and Krakowski are safe, assuming season 2 of Kimmy Schmidt isn’t a trainwreck. I think the last spot goes to Bowen, Bialik, or Light. I’m going with Bialik right now, but I am not at all confident predicting her over Bowen.March 5, 2016 at 5:49 pm #368169
Niecy Nash is definitely out (unfortunately), and after her I also have Mayim Bialik out, as The Big Bang Theory seems to be quickly decreasing in popularity (thankfully). That leaves me with my current six of Chlumsky, McKinnon, Bowen, Krakowski, Hoffmann, and Janney, but I am worried about the possibility of Judith Light or Carol Kane spoiling my predictions.March 5, 2016 at 6:09 pm #368170
I think Chlumsky and Janney are locks. While Krakowski and Hoffman are safe. That leads the last two spots open to Bowen, Light, Nash, Bialik, and McKinnon are fighting for those last two spots. I would pick Light and McKinnon. Lights show had an even more acclaimed season and she had a lot more material to work with, and the Globe nom doesnt hurt. And McKinnon playing the democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton on SNL is really helping her chances. Bowen could also get in because they of her popularity, but the show is obviously not as popular with Emmy voters right now, and that SAG snub hurts her
Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.March 5, 2016 at 9:57 pm #368171
I think Nash is done; and Hoffman is probably as well.March 6, 2016 at 12:20 am #368172
I’d say Nash, Bialik and Hoffman are probably on the outs…
Fighting for the last spot:
Jennifer Lewis (blackish) * Please, Please, Please!
Wendi McLendon Covey (if she goes supporting)
March 6, 2016 at 4:45 am #368173
Janney is sure fire safe.
Chlumsky should be safe with Veep just winning Series, and may well win it again.
Julie Bowen is next safe. Modern Family may have lost series, but it’s still great particularly with Claire and Phil. Even if it somehow missed series, I’d guess the two would be safe.
Kate McKinnon has Ghostbusters coming out. Her face will be everywhere. She’s made it in 2 years in a row without such a big profile as this will give her.
Mayim Bialik is the first of four who are most at risk. The show, from the few episodes I’ve seen of it this season, is decreasing in quality, and Amy isn’t as funny as she used to be for me. If Parsons can somehow miss out, there’s no denying Bialik may suffer the same fate.
Krakowski is an interesting case. I feel her nod was slightly more for her name than her performance last year. She’s good in Kimmy Schmidt, but nothing in comparison to Kemper and Burgess. If the show gets into series, she should be fine. Depends how series 2 goes down.
Gaby Hoffman is good in Transparent, and she had loads of screen time in S2. But she didn’t hold up that we’ll against the more comedic Light, or the more dramatic Landecker. I hope one of those makes it in instead.
I have never seen Getting On, but Nash was highly likely the 8th placed actress on the noms ballot. She will be very lucky to sneak in again with such a little seen show.March 6, 2016 at 6:31 am #368174
IMO, Chlumsky and Hoffman are only locks. Both of them are in shows with increasing popularity, so there is no reason why they should be snubbed now.
I agree. Both Chlusmky and Hoffman are absolute locks this year. I’d also add McKinnon with her increasing profile (ghostbusters), and this being an election year with Clinton at the forefront. Although not nominated last year, I have Judith Light at fourth place, I really feel like she and Hoffman both are making it this year.
Of these 8, I’m actually pretty concerned for the two that many people think are locks – Janney and Bowen. MF has lost an acting nod every year since 2013 and, if that trend continues, I see Bowen dropping this year. Janney is, of course, Janney but her show has 0 support and her getting snubbed won’t surprise me in the least. She can obviously make it again, but I don’t think she’s as big a lock as people think.
Poor Neicy Nash. Her coming back would a such a pleasant surprise.March 6, 2016 at 8:42 am #368175
I think it will be Bialik, Nash, and Hoffmann out, with the other 5 in, plus Judith Light. I’m considering taking out Julie Bowen as well, because I’m getting a bit of a feeling that they are perhaps getting a bit tired of Modern Family.
A lot of people are saying that Gaby Hoffmann is a lock, but if the voters actually watch Transparent Season 2, they’ll see that’s she’s probably the weakest of the ensemble, with her competitors in this category, Judith Light, Amy Landecker, and even Kathryn Hahn, giving more complex and insightful performances in the show’s sophomore season. She got in last year because voters actually watched the first season, and saw that she was the best supporting actress in the show, instead of voting for Judith Light who was hardly in it. Light has a lot more screen time in season 2, has a great submission episode in Episode 2 (“Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump”), and she has already been nominated for a Golden Globe and a Critics’ Choice Award for the second season, while Hoffmann’s only individual nomination for the show was at the Emmys last year.March 6, 2016 at 9:03 am #368176
It’s really funny that we have to think more in the shows they’re in and less in what matter (the performances). For example, Bialik is having her best season in TBBT and, for the first time, she has a competitive tape. In other hand, Bowen is annoying this season of MF… her character’s storyline is so boring and she can’t do much about it. But, I agree with you. TBBT has no buzz right now, MF is a five time champ (even in decrease).
So, I believe the order is: Nash, Bialik, Bowen.March 6, 2016 at 9:35 am #368177
Can’t imagine Julie Bowen (or Ty Burrell) ever missing for Modern Family. I think they’ll get all of the 8, 9 nominations they have coming for them asuming the show ends soon (can it? please?).
Janney is obviously a lock.
McKinnon will be getting A LOT of publicity around the time of voting and she has enough screentime and buzz thanks to her Clinton character. I think she’s safe.
I think that’s it. I don’t see Chlumsky being that much of a lock, she’s amazing here, the show just won (she could’ve won), Hale won also, but I just don’t see her as being SO popular that another actress with bigger buzz can’t take her. The problem (not for her) is that there aren’t many actresses around.
Krakowski…we’ll have to wait and see. But if it’s good, she’s safe.
I haven’t seen Hoffman, but I think Transparent buzz can keep her safe.
I think Nash and Bialik are done.March 6, 2016 at 11:50 am #368178
For the poll, I went with Mayim. They dropped Jim and the show last year. She’s likely next. After that, I have Julie getting bumped. She’s on an aging show showing signs of losing support. Next is Nicey. They actively sought her out, so maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think she makes it back. Jane could go either way. It’s odd that she got in right away for UKS when she had to wait for “30 Rock”. I think she gives the better performance on UKS, but it is something. I’m almost done with “Transparent” and if the voters do what they did last year, I don’t see how Amy Landecker doesn’t get in (Jay Duplass for that matter too on the men side). She’s amazing this season with Sarah’s unraveling. I can see a scenario where all three women get in. Allison and Anna are locks.