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Which perennial Emmy nominee is at most risk of getting snubbed? (comedy)

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Which perennial Emmy nominee is at most risk of getting snubbed? (comedy)
Alison Janney - Mom (3 nominations, 2 wins)
Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine Nine (3 nominations)
William H. Macy - Shameless (3 nominations)
Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (3 nominations, 1 win)
Anna Chlumsky - Veep (4 nominations)
Tony Hale - Veep (4 nominations, 2 wins)
Julia Louis Dryfus - Veep (5 nominations, 5 wins)
Ty Burrell - Modern Family (7 nominations, 2 wins)
  • AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201935109

    I know the Emmy awards are long time away, but I was curious about something. Last year, we saw many perennial nominees get rudely snubbed by the Emmys, many of which were complete shockers.

    The likes of Julie Bowen, Christine Baranski, Don Cheadle, Jim Carter and Mayim Bialik, just to name a few, were all snubbed. So my question to you all is, if the pattern continues (which it will), which existing perennial nominee is at the most risk of getting snubbed?

    For the sake of this poll, I’m including only those actors who’ve been nominated more than two times for playing the same character on the same show (so no Jonathan Banks here).

    I personally think we won’t be seeing Andre Braugher anymore. I also think Allison Janney is at a risk.

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    Riley
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    #1201935119

    I do not see Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Ty Burrell, Tony Hale, Anna Chlumsky or Kate McKinnon as particularly vulnerable.

    You would think that Will Forte would fall out sooner than Macy, but this could be the final season of The Last Man on Earth, so that could give Forte a boost. And this is definitely the seventh season of Shameless. Pretty hard to get nominated for the seventh season of shows that the Emmys actually like. Plus we also have Matt LeBlanc returning for the final season of Episodes, so Macy could very well be bumped. Not betting on it, but I do think that there is a slight chance that the floor completely falls out from underneath black-ish.

    Brooklyn Nine-Nine does seem to be on the way out. It got a SAG nomination last year, but none this past year. It won the stunts Emmy last year, but lost this year. People do love them some Andre Braugher, but he did manage “only” two nominations for Men of a Certain Age, even though the third season was its final, so love for him is not endless. Tituss Burgess might be at greater risk though, as Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt has really under-performed at the Emmys. Let us see how the show does at the guilds this year. I assume that Neil Patrick Harris is entering this category?

    Niecy Nash is gone, so Allison Janney will have to fall at least two slots to get snubbed. Mom is on the rise with the Emmys, but I would caution that upswings on the technical side by How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory coincided with their declines in the acting and series races for whatever reason. Who is entering this category? Molly Shannon might (be a non-starter).

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    GusCruz
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    #1201935129

    Braugher is the only one that seems vulnerable to me.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201935137

    I do not see Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Ty Burrell, Tony Hale, Anna Chlumsky or Kate McKinnon as particularly vulnerable.

    You would think that Will Forte would fall out sooner than Macy, but this could be the final season of The Last Man on Earth, so that could give Forte a boost. And this is definitely the seventh season of Shameless. Pretty hard to get nominated for the seventh season of shows that the Emmys actually like. Plus we also have Matt LeBlanc returning for the final season of Episodes, so Macy could very well be bumped. Not betting on it, but I do think that there is a slight chance that the floor completely falls out from underneath black-ish.

    Brooklyn Nine-Nine does seem to be on the way out. It got a SAG nomination last year, but none this past year. It won the stunts Emmy last year, but lost this year. People do love them some Andre Braugher, but he did manage “only” two nominations for Men of a Certain Age, even though the third season was its final, so love for him is not endless. Tituss Burgess might be at greater risk though, as Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt has really under-performed at the Emmys. Let us see how the show does at the guilds this year. I assume that Neil Patrick Harris is entering this category?

    Niecy Nash is gone, so Allison Janney will have to fall at least two slots to get snubbed. Mom is on the rise with the Emmys, but I would caution that upswings on the technical side by How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory coincided with their declines in the acting and series races for whatever reason. Who is entering this category? Molly Shannon might (be a non-starter).

    Three points.

    1. I completely agree with you on Kate McKinnon, JLD, Anna Chlumsky and Hale as not going anywhere. But I’d also add William H. Macy here. I understand his show is not popular within the academy and I also realize he’ll be up for the show’s seventh season but there are two things to keep in mind here. First, he himself has only been nominated 3 times so the fatigue isn’t there that much. And secondly, he won the SAG award in 2015 which I consider to be a pretty strong sign of support for the actor. Blackish seems to be on the rise so Anderson should be safe. I feel like Forte might be the one in danger here.

    2. I honestly just don’t see how Braugher does not get snubbed next year. Firstly, he doesn’t have the alphabetical order of the ballot helping him out anymore. Secondly, he’s (For all the love people have for him) not gotten a SAG or GG nod for this performance. And third, it seems like he has 0 buzz. I’m also a little skeptical of Burrell. I know he also won a SAG award and keeps getting nominated there, but he has the most fatigue of this lot when it comes to the Emmys and it looks like the academy is going out of its way to get over Modern Family. And he to no longer benefits from a alphabetical ballot.

    3. I’ll have Janney ranked 6th this year (for nominations). She’s never gotten a SAG nomination, she’s been out of globes, she lost critics choice to Bialik and this year even lost the Emmy to McKinnon. Not to mention, everyone knows she has a zillion Emmys. I think we may see Krakwoski return here? I’d also keep an eye out on Noel Wells for Master of None (a show we know they love). Then there is the option of a third transparent actress joining the list and Yvonne Orji and Molly Shannon might be in contention as well.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201935139

    Braugher is the only one that seems vulnerable to me.

    Yeah I don’t see how he comes back.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201935194

    Braugher, though I think Macy and Burrell are very much vulnerable too.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: HORROR at the Oscars! Chapter II (1960-1979)

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    Nate
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    #1201935203

    This is much easier than the drama categories. As much as I personally love Burrell and Modern Family overall, the acting nomination falloff will most likely continue with him missing out next year. I’ve predicted either a Braugher snub or an increase in B99 nominations so many times and neither seems to happen, but him missing out wouldn’t surprise me either. But actually the Veep nods (sigh) are the only ones that seem entrenched right now.

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    jacob121
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    #1201935232

    I know that I personally would be disappointed if Braugher were to finally fall out. Brooklyn 99 has a very underrated ensemble in general but Braugher is actually delivering one of the most consistent and funny performances week after week and his spot is fully deserved.

    That said, obviously the academy does not care at all for his show and it is just a matter of how far their love for him extends. It is somewhat of a miracle that he has managed to hold on for so long when there are so many contenders jockeying to get into supporting actor.

    I voted for Macy but could just as easily see Braugher or Burrell falling out. It seems to me that Donald Glover seems a likely addition to the lead actor category and it is just a question of whether Forte or Macy drops out to accommodate him – there doesn’t seem to be a surefire supporting actor coming into the comedy races as of yet with as strong of a chance as Glover so I guess that gives Macy the slight edge of being the most likely to fall out.

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