May 24, 2011 at 7:47 pm #221304
There is a thread in this forum about what races are already over, because a winner is already a shoo-in. This includes Kate Winslet for Mini/TV Movie Lead Actress, and Maggie Smith for Mini/TV Movie Supporting Actress, and Gwyneth Paltrow in the Guest Actress in a Comedy Series race.
However, I have a question. What Emmy races will actually come down to what the actors/actresses submit?May 24, 2011 at 7:52 pm #221306
I think one of these races will be Comedy Lead Actress. Alot of people think that Laura Linney is a lock for the win, but the show has really underwhelmed alot of critics. I think the race is still up in the air. Poehler has a great tape with “Flu Season”. Michele has a great tape with “Blame it on the Alcohol”. And Linney has a great tape with “Pilot”.May 24, 2011 at 8:31 pm #221307
I think Comedy Supporting Actor is one race where people will really need to see the reels before making up their minds. Likely frontrunners Chris Colfer, Eric Stonestreet, and Ty Burrell have great material, but then perennial nominee Neil Patrick Harris has a very strong potential submission for the episode where Barney meet his father.May 24, 2011 at 8:38 pm #221308
I agree with Comedy Supporting Actor, and even Comedy Supporting Actress,
also, to add: Comedy Series, and Drama Supporting Actress (but WHEN has that ever worked?? lol)May 24, 2011 at 8:48 pm #221309
Comedy Supporting Actor will definitely come down to the best tape. Once again the contenders for the win will again be Burrell, Colfer and Stonestreet. Stonestreet had the best tape of the three last year and actually won (despite Burrell being seen as the frontrunner).
Drama Supporting Actor will also probably come down to the tapes as there is no frontrunner. There are even no guarantees for nominees besides John Slattery.
The rest of the categories have a frontrunner (Carell in Comedy Actor, Linney in Comedy Actress, Vergara in Comedy Supporting Actress), or the tape won’t matter (Hamm will have a better tape than Buscemi but Buscemi can still win, Moss will probably have a better tape than Margulies but Margulies could win on momentum, Drama Supporting Actress always has a weird winner).May 24, 2011 at 8:51 pm #221310
I think Comedy Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress & Guest Actor on the comedy side.
I think Drama Series, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress on the drama side.May 24, 2011 at 11:41 pm #221311
I think a lot of the Supporting Acting categories will come down to tapes. Comedy Supporting Actor, most likely. Comedy Supporting Actress, as well.
Drama Supporting Actor will likely also come down to tapes. I’d say Drama Supporting Actress, too, but who the heck knows what goes on with that category.May 24, 2011 at 11:48 pm #221312
Comedy Supporting Actor and Actress, Reailty/Competition Program, Drama Supporting Actor, Drama Series.May 25, 2011 at 10:03 pm #221313
Most of all, the supporting categories, especially the actors where there is no front-runner at all (in the actresses races one could say Vergara, White, McDonald and Panjabi are in front).
The other acting races will also depend on tapes, but not as much as the supporting ones. And I think the Series races tend to be the ones where buzz matters more than tapes.
But overall I think this is a year where the tapes matter more than ever.May 26, 2011 at 1:42 am #221314
I do not see Paltrow as a lock for Guest Actress. I think Cloris Leachman (Raising Hope) or Tina Fey (SNL) or even Megan Mullally (Parks and Recreation – who is overdue for another Emmy) may take the category. Remember, we are dealing with a COMEDY category, and those three ladies are very funny.May 26, 2011 at 2:30 pm #221315
Oh, I could slap myself for forgetting about Megan Mullally. I still think Paltrow will win, because she’s a huge star and she was really good, Cloris Leachman and Megan Mullally are right there, too. SNL could have used Tina Fey better in that SNL episode, which is not to say she doesn’t have a chance.May 26, 2011 at 6:03 pm #221316
It matters in all the acting races, less so in the series race. Consider that last year pretty much everyone considered Julianna Margulies a lock and that tape submission was just a formality. Yet Kyra Sedgwick won for a five-year-old show that had lost most of its buzz, because her submission was better. Overdue status helped Segdwick too, but Emmy voters have never been swayed just by someone being overdue — just ask Susan Lucci, and Hugh Laurie, and Angela Lansbury, and Bill Maher, and Jane Kaczmarek.
No one is a lock unless there’s a “Whitecaps”-level episode in contention, and I haven’t seen one yet. Not even Laura Linney, who has a strong tape in the pilot but will have stiff competition from Amy Poehler and Toni Collette, who have episodes that make them a threat, plus the fact that Poehler is a lot funnier and Collette has a lot more range.May 27, 2011 at 10:58 pm #221317
True, but look at Archie Panjabi who submitted terribly last year and won.May 28, 2011 at 6:31 pm #221318
G’Day, This is something that can never be accuratly predicted. That’s because each category has a different group of voters. No doubt many of the voters will look at tapes, but like every year there will be some that don’t and it’s impossible to tell which voting groups are going to have more/less tape watchers.
Also if Laura Linney wins is could very well be on tape (the pilot is very strong) but it could also be on buzz alone, so it’s hard to tell.
This is nevertheless a fun thread topic. At this point I’d say that half the winners will be the frountrunners. Just under a half will be upsets based on tapes. And 1 or 2 categories will be real head scrathers (how did they win with that tape?)
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