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June 15, 2017 at 6:53 pm #1202122417
I am having trouble with my predictions this year for all of the usual reasons, like not being able to read the minds of tens of thousands, but also because this year is so competitive. I keep trying to add The Leftovers to my predictions, but as I have said in other threads, the only way that I am going to do it is as a package deal with the leads in the vein of the breakthrough of The Americans last year. And if I do that, I have to break up some other package deal. But I think that that is just where we are this year. It is hard to picture a scenario in which a face of a show does not get snubbed despite a strong performance by the show overall.June 15, 2017 at 7:18 pm #1202122420
None of these are legitimately comparable to Amy Adams. You’d need a first year show that had a ton of buzz and was expected to break through in a major way, and it broke into series and also into writing and/or directing. But its lead was snubbed. That’s the only Emmy comparable alignment to Adams. And none of these fit that bill, except perhaps ERW, but many expect her to be snubbed, and she’s not really first thing someone thinks about when it comes to Westworld.June 15, 2017 at 7:28 pm #1202122421
I’m not exactly sure what you are asking – are you saying which of the above options are going to get snubbed despite overall support for their show?
Of those, I am not predicting Danes or Spacey.
I also have the Leftovers in my predictions in the way that you detailed above – Series, Coon, Theroux. I am actually fairly confident in Coon and Series, only shaky on Theroux.June 15, 2017 at 7:33 pm #1202122422
Evan Rachel Woods. I have the same gut feeling that I correctly had with Hugh Grant (they both hit almost every precursor). But I do think there are some valid reasons as to why she will be snubbed. A) Time. It’s been a while since Westworld and it won’t be back for a while. B) New competition. She got into the precursors, but she wasn’t competing against Moss, Baranski, Coon, etc.
those are the main reasons I’m snubbing her. Coon has heat and visibility from Fargo. So I guess we could call her this years Micheal Shannon if she gets in (missed everything but critics choice).June 15, 2017 at 7:34 pm #1202122423
So you mean someone who will be snubbed but their show does really well or someone who is very widely expected to be nominated but could be a really shocking snub no one expects?June 15, 2017 at 7:41 pm #1202122428
Wait, it’s widely expected for Coon to break through just cause she has Fargo?June 15, 2017 at 7:48 pm #1202122436
Wait, it’s widely expected for Coon to break through just cause she has Fargo?
that is one of the reasons. Other reasons include her being amazing, The Leftovers airing at the right time, her and the show having a TON of buzz, having multiple Emmy worthy tapes, and a few other reasons.June 15, 2017 at 7:51 pm #1202122439
So you mean someone who will be snubbed but their show does really well or someone who is very widely expected to be nominated but could be a really shocking snub no one expects?
I think he means both. A lead everyone thinks will be nominated and then is shockingly snubbed despite the show doing well? That’s how I interpreted it. Am I wrong?June 15, 2017 at 8:03 pm #1202122450
Well, out of the options I don’t think Coon or Theroux can be considered to be expected to be nominated. I don’t think HOC, Homeland, Modern Family, or UKS will do that well, they could all get series but likely won’t be racking up a large number of nominations. I’d say out of the shows expected to get a big number of nominations across the board, Evan Rachel Wood and Thomas Middleditch could possibly miss out. Wood more likely because her category is more competitive.June 15, 2017 at 8:04 pm #1202122454
Just considering Adams and not the shows though, that would be like Claire Foy being snubbed, getting every precursor then being snubbed at the big awards.June 15, 2017 at 8:05 pm #1202122457
Oh ya I guess since he included Coon and Theroux he meant solely the show gets nominated and the actor gets snubbed.June 15, 2017 at 8:20 pm #1202122486
From what I gather from the inquiry, the biggest, most likely to be nominated with a lot of buzz for their show in it’s first season would probably be between Claire Foy or Elisabeth Moss, so I’d have to say Elisabeth Moss because Foy is the surest of sures, and Handmaid’s Tale is untested at award shows in general.June 15, 2017 at 8:36 pm #1202122515
But Foy and Moss aren’t getting snubbed while their shows get into series.June 15, 2017 at 9:10 pm #1202122570
Lot of confusion here, so my bad. I mostly meant a show getting a series nomination, but its lead missing. Asking who will be this year’s Ellie Kemper of 2015 might have been clearer. Not saying that all shows get their leads nominated, but I feel that the people in the poll are generally expected to get nominated with their series. I disagree that only first-year shows should be eligible.June 15, 2017 at 9:55 pm #1202122630
But Foy and Moss aren’t getting snubbed while their shows get into series.
Moss won’t, the Emmys love nominating her too damn much. As for Foy, she did get snubbed for her breakout role in Wolf Hall, but her SAG win convinces me that she is a lock for a nomination at the very least.
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