July 26, 2011 at 2:08 pm #222741
Every year there are 2-4 shocking winners that nobody on the boards suspect will win. To give you the jist:
(in order of WTF-ness, my opinion, feel free to disagree)
2010 – Panjabi, Sedgwick, MAYBE Parsons and Cranston
2009 – Cryer, Jones
2008 – Smart, Wiest
Who do you think will be the upsets this year? I think the following COULD (thought not necessarily WILL) happen:
Baranski (drama supporting actress category always houses this person)
Cryer (he’s done it before)
McCarthy (breakout year and highest rated new show)
Braugher (last chance for this show)
Vergara (only because of the episode she picked)
Laurie (overdue factor)
Hargitay (practically final season)
Falco (her name)
Galecki (BBT love)
Poehler or Plimpton (maybe voters actually watched their whole seasons…)
Ed O’Neill (“we’re sorry” factor)
Pamela Fryman (“we’re sorry we didn’t nominate NPH”)
Anybody besides Kate Winslet in MS/M Actress
The Office and Boardwalk Empire (buzz)
Friday Night Lights (last season)July 29, 2011 at 8:19 pm #222743
Many people were predicting Parsons to win last year and (although many were not predicting him to win) many people had Cranston as a spoiler.
I definitely think Cryer, McCarthy, Falco could pull off shocking wins. Cryer could win on a sympathy vote. I actually think the Lead Actress, Comedy category is wide open (Linney is not a strong frontrunner) so a person with a lot of momentum (like McCarthy) could pull off an upset. However, it could allows a safe choice like Falco to win too.
I wouldn’t call Baranski a shocker because everyone is starting to catch on that anything can happen in the Supporting Actress, Drama Category.
I don’t think Braugher (his show has been cancelled), Laurie (Hamm is in the same situation and is the “it” leading man of the moment), Hargitay (Enos is the one to watch out for in that category) and Galecki (They won’t vote him over Parsons) have any shot at winning.
I would consider Vergara and Poehler spoilers or even frontrunners so their wins would not be shocking.
I would also like to suggest Mireille Enos (if the backlash doesn’t cost her many votes, she has a killer tape) and Kristen Wiig (for the same reason I would consider McCarthy a possible surprise).August 13, 2011 at 11:26 am #222744
it’s definetely Laurie if it’s not Hamm. they both were nominated couple of times, and last year Laurie was kinda snubbed! I mean Cranston is a genious, but Laurie had the best episode. and this year despite all the love for Suitcase he has a very strong submissin also. So I think it won’t be a surprise if he wins.
Boardwalk empire is actually pretty boring(( it will probably get directing for pilot with writing going to Suitcase
but it is not good enough to beat Mad Men. I think shocker could come from Friday night Lights. Last season, and cable tv. If Good Wife got any directing or writing bids it would be a huge threat for mad men, but now it’s, in my oppinion, Friday Night Lights who could take away mad Men’s Emmy.
What I don’t understand is why people think that Plimpton’s or McCarthy’s win would be a surprise. They both were very funny in their submissions and by the way Raising Hope is a very good show.
so I would;t be surprised to see them wining. Linney is great and she IS a frontrunner. The Big C had a wonderful first season even if it more of a drama than comedy.
but in drama supporting actress it is sort of a suprise almost every year! “Huff” show took this award two times in a row, then Heigl won over more imressive performances like Oh or Wilson, and last year Archie Panjabi. so it could happen that Baranski will get this award and she does have a nice episode. but it would be very upsetting if Martindale will lose this category. although her biggest competition probably Forbes with all those tears and desperation in pilot of Killing.
Om MS/M I think it is going to be Winslet. She was the most amazing among the nomenies! so very amazing!
But the suprise I guess could happen in drama actress category. it is now looks like Moss vs. Margulies, but Enos has a very poweerful episode and despite all the negative reviews for Killing’s finale “The Killing” is actually very good show!August 31, 2011 at 11:41 am #222745
I wouldn’t be surprised if Gwyneth Paltrow lost in the Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series category.
There are plenty of people in Hollywood who can’t stand her real-life personality. That sort of thing shouldn’t matter, but realistically, it affects her chances. And from what I recall, after the submitted episode first aired, the show’s fans were somewhat divided re: Paltrow’s performance, and whether the character she played was worthwhile.
Plus, some voters have probably seen Paltrow’s later appearances in the season, which disappointed a lot of people who enjoyed her character’s first appearance.
The guest categories seem to be the place where voters are most likely to ignore the performances of the nominees, and vote based on whose name stands out to them as someone they like. And in the “liked by the voters” department, I think Cloris Leachman has it made. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Leachman won, but it sounds like a lot of the experts would consider it a major upset.September 15, 2011 at 5:20 am #222746
Drama Series is going to be the biggest shocker. I’m one of the few predicting The Good Wife to win.
Don’t think it’s Mad Men’s year this year. Boardwalk Empire cleaned up at the tech awards, but it’s not the best show out there.
The Good Wife has the best tapes, plain and simple.September 15, 2011 at 1:29 pm #222747
Was Diane Wiest really such a shocker? I mean it’s fu(king Diane Wiest, 2x Oscar winner. Who else should have won, one of the Grey’s girls? Candice Bergen? Rachel Griffiths??! Really?September 16, 2011 at 7:59 pm #222748
I’m actually predicting Braugher to win. My personal love for Men of a Certain Age may be glaring my sight and making me want to think Braugher can pull off a tremendous upset, but I actually think there are a few things working in his favor.
Braugher is a previous Emmy winner, and is obviously favored by the Academy, who nominated him twice for Men of a Certain Age, which was otherwise completely overlooked. “Let the Sunshine In” is an amazing episode of television, and although Braugher shares his screen time pretty equally with Romano and Bakula, he has the most impactful moments and shows a tremendous amount of range. His submission last year, “Powerless”, was an excellent tape, so maybe voters will want to play catch-up (it’s happened in many races before). And there was a lot of prominent television writers, actors, and producers who were deeply upset by the cancellation of Men of a Certain Age. They could possibly reward the show with a parting gift for Braugher.
He’s still a very long shot, and I acknowledge that, but I’m predicting him to win nonetheless, somewhat crazy but also somewhat savvy.
Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.September 17, 2011 at 4:50 pm #222749
I’m boldly predicting Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law”). I hope I am completely wrong. I would much rather see Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”) win. However, look at what all Bates has going into this:
– Ninth Emmy nomination and never won.
– Lead on a James E. Kelley series.
– Oscar winner.
– Wide array of guest work on other series (“Six Feet Under,” “The Office”).
– Decent submission.
– Margulies and Moss are good but not Edie Falco in “Whitecaps.”
I didn’t see Sally Field’s (“Brothers & Sisters”) win comming in 2007 and this is no different. I feel like it’s one of those that would happen then everyone and myself would say, “I should have seen that coming.”
Again, fingers crossed that Margulies takes this.
-MorganSeptember 17, 2011 at 10:07 pm #222750
Kathy Bates winning Drama Actress.
Louis CK winning Comedy Actor.
Kelly McDonald winning Drama Supporting Actress.September 17, 2011 at 11:58 pm #222751
Look at supporting actress. Knows that’s the copout answer, but history lmao.September 18, 2011 at 6:33 am #222752
I can see “The Good Wife” taking Best Drama this year.September 18, 2011 at 12:14 pm #222753
just watch Jon Cryer win. It was so unexpected 2 years ago and I could see it happening again. Plus if the rumors are true and Charlie Sheen is in attendance than I am sure the voters would love to cut to a reaction shot like that.