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Who would have won in 2016 with preferential balloting?

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  • Riley
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    #1201934754

    Pretend that the 2015 system had been in place:

    Game of Thrones | “Battle of the Bastards” | “Battle of the Bastards” | Kevin Spacey | Viola Davis | Peter Dinklage | Maggie Smith | Reg E. Cathey | Margo Martindale

    Veep | “Mother” | “Kissing Your Sister” | Jeffrey Tambor | Julia Louis-Dreyfus | Tony Hale | Allison Janney | Larry David | Tina Fey & Amy Poehler

    American Crime Story | “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” | “The Race Card” | Courtney B. Vance | Sarah Paulson | John Travolta | Regina King

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    GusCruz
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    #1201934764

    Travolta?????

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201934800

    Pretend that the 2015 system had been in place:

    Game of Thrones | “Battle of the Bastards” | “Battle of the Bastards” | Kevin Spacey | Viola Davis | Peter Dinklage | Maggie Smith | Reg E. Cathey | Margo Martindale

    Veep | “Mother” | “Kissing Your Sister” | Jeffrey Tambor | Julia Louis-Dreyfus | Tony Hale | Allison Janney | Larry David | Tina Fey & Amy Poehler

    American Crime Story | “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” | “The Race Card” | Courtney B. Vance | Sarah Paulson | John Travolta | Regina King

    Let’s just say I’m incredibly grateful that there’s no preferential ballot anymore.

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    Riley
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    #1201934810

    Sterling K. Brown would have been brought down by the people who did not watch American Crime Story and had no familiarity with him.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201934819

    Sterling K. Brown would have been brought down by the people who did not watch American Crime Story and had no familiarity with him.

    Yeah, I don’t think so. That was already an argument used by some of the people who didn’t predict him. Travolta’s performance, I maintain, is widely seen as a joke by most people, even if he eventually wins with the HFPA.

    @thedemonhog you, I and most people did a poor/disappointing job predicting the Emmys this year. As usual, they were unpredictable. Let’s take a moment to think about that and absorb some humility. I don’t get why you keep talking as if you know everything. There’s nothing wrong with accepting that we don’t.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201934856

    I was the one that kept repeating how awful this system was but I don’t think this years winners would have been so identical to last years in any circumstances  . Last year was the first time they faced with a system like that and let everyone vote for everyyhing; everything was too new, they probably weren’t aware of the fact that their 3rd or 4th place votes had that much effect. We also would have seen effects of sneaky/strategical voting like people placing previous winners that didn’t maintain their passion to the last place. People were passionate about Veep&GoT last year because they’d never won and they got tired of Modern Family and to a some extent Mad Men.

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    Riley
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    #1201934943

    @thedemonhog you, I and most people did a poor/disappointing job predicting the Emmys this year. As usual, they were unpredictable. Let’s take a moment to think about that and absorb some humility. I don’t get why you keep talking as if you know everything. There’s nothing wrong with accepting that we don’t.

    Read all of my posts as if they have an “I think” before them. Everything that I post is speculative and my hope is always that that is implicit. This thread is titled “Who would have won”; what I mean is “Who do you think would have won (even though nobody knows and we are historically bad at guessing)”.

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    WaltEagle
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    #1201934993

    Game of Thrones | “Battle of the Bastards” | “Battle of the Bastards” | Rami Malek | Taraji P. Henson | Kit Harington | Lena Headey | Reg E. Cathey | Ellen Burstyn

    Veep | “Mother” | “Kissing Your Sister” | Jeffrey Tambor | Julia Louis-Dreyfus | Louie Anderson | Allison Janney | Martin Mull | Tina Fey & Amy Poehler

    American Crime Story | “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” | “The Race Card” | Courtney B. Vance | Sarah Paulson | David Schwimmer | Regina King

    Except 2-3 crazy things we can’t really conceive of would also happen in these categories.

    Maggie Smith would suffer from a lot of GoT fans putting her below at least 3 people and that being a decent chunk of ballots. All Lena Headey would need is to generally be ranked above the other two more often than not. Basically, they vote split this year.

    I don’t think the current system particularly helped Louie Anderson, who wouldn’t be last on many ballots if it were ranked. I do think it helped Margo Martindale, who people just assume was great if they’re picking one name.

    Janney/McKinnon is a close call. McKinnon could have easily rode the same wave with the help of the election.

    The current system is the one that might have benefited Travolta and Gooding, and it didn’t. Clearly enough people watched it to know who shone in it. The rankings would put Travolta even further below. It would have been Schwimmer if they wanted a name, Brown if they didn’t.

    The important thing to note is that with the current system, last-place votes aren’t a thing so they’re not hurting anyone. Before, they did sometimes. I think that would happen for the fatigue of Smith, the maligned-by-many Travolta, and the enlightened few aware of the nature of Martindale’s role. I think Kit Harington just needed to break onto that ballot to be ranked above Peter Dinklage (after he won two Emmys) by a lot of people. Malek might be hurt by this a bit, but not hugely, and his competition are not on universally beloved shows, so most of them would also get some last-place votes.

    The other factor is people where “everybody’s gonna put them high enough”/”barely anybody’s going to put them last”. With The Americans having name recognition as a well-regarded show, I think this would get them closer, but not enough for any of the three big wins.

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    Teridax
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    #1201935018

    @thedemonhog @GusCruz

    Myself having watched the entire series, and LOVED the entire series, Travolta should have WON the Emmy, IMHO.

    However, I agree with GusCruz that in hindsight Sterling K. Brown was a lock. I had him in 3rd because I didn’t think he was enough of an A-list star to win over the overdue Hugh Laurie or comeback/veteran John Travolta, who had the most transformative performance compared to Brown.

    But then again, Tom Berenger really isn’t an “A-list star” either, and he still won in that same category for Hatfields & McCoys over 4-time Academy Award nominee Ed Harris for Game Change! 😀

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    Riley
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    #1201935029

    Maggie Smith would suffer from a lot of GoT fans putting her below at least 3 people and that being a decent chunk of ballots.

    Good point! I switch my hypothetical prediction to Lena Headey.

    I would think that the “enlightened few” would have been enough to prevent Margo Martindale the first time though if they would have been enough the second time.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201935049

    I agree with the majority of Walt’s post. I was gonna bring up the Maggie Smith situation but you can’t say anything remotely bad about old actressses(only actresses btw) in this forum without being attacked so I decided not to. With the old system she would have been the one that got most last place votes among all 60 nominees (along with some decent amount of first-place votes by older voters) since everyone and their mama would be aware of the fact that she’s not gonna attend and wouldn’t care. She wouldn’t be the one that has support across the board. It’s not the same as people not ranking the likes of Allison Janney and Margo Martindale last even if they don’t watch their shows, because they are always humble and grateful.

    But I’m not sure if that would automatically mean someone from GoT’s win. The ranking system doesn’t exactly kill the effects of vote-splitting and all three of them do a different a type of acting. If you appreciate Clarke’s approach you probably don’t appreciate Headey’s much or vica versa. And Clarke would probably be the go-to choice of casual viewers or the ones who don’t know much about the show. Tierney or Zimmer could have benefitted if they had enough goodwill within the industry. SAG and other guilds worship stars/big names because most of them don’t work regularly and have never been in major film sets in their lives. TV Academy is a more elite group, and established actors do not share the same enthusiasm about other established actors since they often target the same roles. Character actors and people who do not have much media exposure gets a front leg in that regard.

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    Problemchild
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    #1201935594

    Drama Series: Game of Thrones
    Writing: “eps1.0hellofriend.mov”
    Directing: “Battle of the Bastards”
    Actor: Rami Malek
    Actress: Viola Davis
    Supporting Actor: Jon Voight
    Supporting Actress: Maura Tierney
    Guest Actor: Hank Azaria
    Guest Actress: Laurie Metcalfe

    Comedy Series: Veep
    Writing: “Mother”
    Directing: “Kissing Your Sister”
    Actor: Thomas Middleditch
    Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
    Supporting Actor: Tony Hale
    Supporting Actress: Judith Light
    Guest Actor: Martin Mull
    Guest Actress: Tina Fey and Amy Poehler

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