April 17, 2013 at 3:36 pm #273238
I think DGA, WGA and SAG nominations that the show did not have last year when it got into all those categories is a positive sign. It means the industry is paying closer attention to this show and C.K. than ever before. And they do seem to like him a lot. And frankly, most of the shows that could get that sixth spot aren’t that competitive anymore.
“Parks” hasn’t really reached the third season highs this year needed to build buzz for it to come back, and the snub last year was already unexpected when they had more factors than this one. “Veep” feels very much like a one-time thing, driven by JLD hype and HBO connection, but I don’t see that lasting this year unless it builds much more acclaim than the moderately goos reception it has so far. “Nurse Jackie” has started this season to much criticism, and unless it drastically improves, a chance to come back seems unlikely too. And none of the others shows feel like they have much of a shot at this point. So I think the nominees will be:
1. “Modern Family”
2. “30 Rock”
3. “Arrested Development”
5. “The Big Bang Theory”
I might be underestimating “Veep” here, but I don’t think so. “Louie” will be a Comedy Series nominee.April 17, 2013 at 5:20 pm #273239
Compelling points, and while I think Louie will be nominated, the Academy has shown no indication that they’ve tired of Modern Family (unlike most), so I wouldn’t predict any other show besides MF just yet.April 17, 2013 at 5:27 pm #273240
I think it can happenApril 17, 2013 at 5:31 pm #273241
I certainly hope so.April 17, 2013 at 5:46 pm #273242
Oh, I could see it winning also. I do think it not wise to underestimate the show.April 17, 2013 at 5:51 pm #273243
But “Modern Family” is still cool? With whom? Where?April 17, 2013 at 6:50 pm #273245
But ratings don’t equal cool. I mean, was Two And a Half Men ever cool?
Anyway, it sounds way too hard for any show to beat “Modern Family”, but them again, this show has become so boring and formulaic it’s hard to picture it winning again too. I do think the strongest possibility is “30 Rock” pulling a “Raymond” and winning a Series farewell win (especially because that’s the kind of show that feels deserving of four wins, not MF). But I wouldn’t be too surprised if “Louie” pulled off a jaw-dropping win. They do like to award the underdog, and with the right episode selection, he could become the best option that doesn’t involve giving a show a fourth win.April 17, 2013 at 8:05 pm #273246
Compelling points, and while I think Louie will be nominated, the Academy has shown no indication that they’ve tired of Modern Family (unlike most), so I wouldn’t predict any other show besides MF just yet.
It missed writing and art direction last year, both nominations that it had received for its first two seasons (over Game of Thrones WTF). It also went from three to two directing nominations, even with the tie in the category last year. It is still a powerhouse and could still win, but it has peaked and is weakening.April 17, 2013 at 8:43 pm #273247
That’s a bold prediction. I don’t think “Louie” will even be nominated for comedy series, so saying it will both be nominated and win says a lot. I haven’t seen any indication that voters are over “Modern Family” yet, and there are plenty of other places to reward Louis C.K. if they choose to do so (writing again, directing, acting [fingers crossed!], editing, variety, etc.). Comedy series is such another beast entirely. It certainly deserves to be included in the roster, but that doesn’t mean that it will be.April 17, 2013 at 8:47 pm #273248
I’m with Renaton. I think 30 Rock could pull off the upset, and Fey and Baldwin could win again, too.April 17, 2013 at 9:26 pm #273249
Fey and Baldwin could definitely win, yes — given that they have that powerhouse, one-hour series finale to submit to the judges. They get lots of face time and have scenes that tug at the heart. But I don’t think 30 Rock has any chance at all to win.
I think only four shows have a real shot to win — MF, Girls, Arrested Dev and Louie. I think MF support is fading and Girls, AD and Louie support growing.April 18, 2013 at 2:16 am #273250
I think the problem is that there are too many contenders against Modern Family, but no clear challenger. Girls is probably the better positionned of them, bu Arrrested Development, 30 Rock and Louie all have a shot, which may induce vote-splitting, letting MF win yet again.
I realize the same argument was used last year to predict a Mad Men win, but I think people were overestimating Downton Abbey’s chances back then because of the surprising nominations. Mad Men really only had two contenders : Homeland and Breaking Bad. MF will have four, at least if AD is any good and if Louie makes it in.