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Will these Emmy milestones ever happen again?

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    #309601

    Monopolizing a Category.

    Total Occurrences, 9; most recent, NYPD Blue 1994.

    Getting every nomination in a category has happened nine times. Of the nine times, 3 occurred in the 3 nominee era, 1 in the 4 nominee era, and 5 in the 5 nominee era. 30 Rock & Mad Men are the most recent shows to get all but 1 slot. With 6 nominees, that wipes out all categories except writing/directing. 

    Odds: 40%

     

    One Season Wonder

    Total occurrences, 6; most recent, Frank’s Place 1988.

    A show that lasted only one year, yet was still nominated for best series. The advent of internet buzz makes this one seem impossible. But I think the changing definition of the television calendar, and the 6th nominee slot, helps. For this to happen again, a show would need to premiere in the late spring, get great reviews, but terrible ratings. Or have a Claire Danes My-So Called Life situation.

    Odds: 15%

     

    Writing/Directing Sweep by Non-Pilot

    Total Occurrences, 8; most recent, Malcolm in the Middle 2001.

    The same episode winning for writing and directing will almost certainly happen again. 30 Rock & Homeland both could have accomplished this last year.

    Odds: 100%

     

    9 Main Cast Nominations

    Total Occurrences, 3; most recent, The West Wing 2002

    Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law, and The West Wing each got nine main cast acting noms during the 5 nominee era. Though, The West Wing had 6 nominees for Supporting Actor that year. It is possible that two of their guys tied for fifth. The Comedy record is 6 by Cheers and Modern Family. Adding a sixth slot would seem to help, but large ensemble dramas seem to be out.

    Odds: 20%

     

    Network Series Domination

    Total Occurrences, 2; most recent, NBC 1987

    Gaining every slot in the series race has only happened twice, both for comedy. CBS went 4/4 in 1975. But NBC went a step better in 1987 going 5/5. The sixth slot makes this nearly impossible. HBO is the most recent to get 3/6 in 2011.

    Odds: 1%

    Odds of getting 5/6: 10%

     

    Getting to 11 series nominations

    Total Occurrences, 3; most recent, Law & Order.

    M*A*S*H, Cheers, and Law & Order all got to 11 series noms. The internet buzz machine makes this unlikely, as does the fact that broad shows that make it to 11 seasons are rarely on the Emmy radar. 30 Rock went 7/7, but would have eventually dropped out.

    Odds: 5%

     

    Joining the 90 (major) career nominee club

    Members, 2, Cheers (95), M*A*S*H (94)

    Sustained quality and longevity are needed. 30 Rock (73) had the perfect blueprint to join this club, the guest category is key here, something that M*A*S*H did not have. If another show gets 90 it will be a comedy. ER has the drama record with 78.

    Odds: 20%

     

    Joining the 20 (major) nominee club

    Members, 1, Roots

    Roots gained 21major noms in 1977, despite having to compete against drama series in several categories. Two shows have come close, NYPD Blue holds the drama record with 19 in 1994, and 30 Rock has the top comedy total with 18 in 2009. With the extra slot, and guest acting categories, this seems do-able.

    Odds: 50%

     

    Getting 6/7 major awards, comedy/drama series

    Total Occurrences, 3; most recent, Hill Street Blues 1981

    All in the Family twice, and Hill Street Blues, (both lost supporting categories). When the Emmys love a show they really love it, Modern Family is the most recent show to go 5/7 in 2011. Had Breaking Bad premiered closer to voting it likely would have gone 6/7, it still has the best chance to do so since The West Wing. A complete 7/7 sweep has only happened once, the miniseries Angels in America.

    Odds: 60%

     

    Joining the 20 (major) win club

    Members, 4, Mary Tyler Moore (27), Frasier (25), All in the Family (21), Cheers (20)

    All comedies encompass the 20 win club, Hill Street Blues and The Sopranos top the drama field with 18. Modern Family is on pace with 14 through 4 seasons, but their run appears to be ending. Right now they are the only viable candidate.

    Odds: 45%

     

    When will Broadcast win Best Drama again?

    Last Occurrence; 24, 2006

    With the AMC juggernauts ending, and Homeland running out of gas, broadcast seems ripe to take the top prize again. Unfortunately, the most critically acclaimed drama, The Good Wife, has been passed over by the Emmys. The window is open for the next few years, Broadcast just needs to find the show.

    Odds: By 2020 60%

    By 2030: 100%

     

    (major means acting directing writing and series)

     

    What do you guys think?

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    Riley
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    Oct 11th, 2010
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    #309603

    Great read.

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