YOUR longshot prediction? What’s your 500 point bet?

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    #357419

    When you make your predictions at Gold Derby, we give you 2 Super Bets: 1 for 500 points, 2 for 200 points. All other categories are woth 100 points.

    What’s your personal 500 point bet? And what’s your thinking behind it?

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    Halo_Insider
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    #357421

    I like to reserve my 500 point bets for things that aren’t first place in the predictions center, but are things that I feel (somewhat) confident have a chance of taking it.

    I’m throwing it behind Pamela Adlon in Guest Actress in a Comedy. Her submission was the one that really stood out to me, as far as a full performance was concerned, and it seems like just the type of humor that voters were able to go with back in 2013 with Melissa Leo. I definitely don’t think of it as a lock, but it feels like just the kind of risk worth taking.

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    nahborghi
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    #357422

    Will Forte for Comedy Actor, with 40/1 chances. He has a dynamite submisson that is both funny and emotional, and his show has some support since it got writing and directing nods as well. Jeffrey Tambor’s submission lacks the screen time to consider him a Lead, and honestly, it’s too much of a drama. If it pays off, I’ll be extremely glad.

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    GusCruz
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    #357423

    Maybe Spacey.

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    AMG
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    #357424

    My 500 point bet is on 9/1 outsider Uzo Aduba winning Drama Supporting Actress.

    Headey for me has the CGI going against her, not because she used a double, but because of the dodginess of the CGI itself being very distracting. Hendricks has a good tape, but in terms of dramatic power, Aduba has it over all of them.

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    Anonymous
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    #357425

    My 500 points bet is for Kyle Chandler winning Drama Lead Actor, he has the submission, he has the overall performance only thing he has to overcome is the overdue factor that helps Jon Hamm, I believe he can do it. 

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    AviChristiaans
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    #357426

    500 point bet: Drama Directing for From A to B and Back Again (Homeland). It’s a directors episode, full of immense structure and sequence. And with her DGA win for the episode, high profile and overdue Glatter is surely going home with her first Emmy.

    My 200 point bets: Comedy Directing for The Last Man on Earth. Comedy pilots fare extremely well with Directing Emmys (circa Modern Family). And i thought this episode was done extremely well. Really don’t see Transparent owning the night come Emmy night.

    Comedy Lead Actor for William H Macey. He has the episode, he has the SAG Award (populist vote) and he is beloved. Get your Emmy boy!

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    leothescorpio
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    #357427

    My 500 points in on Taraji P. Henson. She has the episode and she has the buzz. Yes her show didn’t do well in nominations, but the same goes for Davis & Maslany who complete Goldderby’s Top 3 in Drama Lead Actress. My biggest fear is Henson + Davis losing to Moss or Danes, like they lost to Penelope Cruz at the Oscars in ’09.

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    taloson
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    #357428

    Cat Deeley for Reality Host. No idea why, just a gut feeling.

    Also, Wolf Hall for Limited Series/Movie Writing. See Sherlock last year, The Hour the year before, and other recent winners like Little Dorrit, Downton Abbey, Prime Suspect and The Girl in the Cafe. Emmy voters love British miniseries/movies in this category. Olive Kitteridge is writerly, but it doesn’t have the showy dialogue or tight story of Wolf Hall.

    And on that note, Damian Lewis in Limited Series/Movie Supporting Actor. Bill Murray does very little in Olive Kitteridge as far as showiness, and Finn Wittrock might be a little too fresh faced. Enter Damian Lewis, a recent Emmy winner playing an over-the-top historical figure who’s a scene stealer.

    And nahborghi, I like your prediction of Will Forte over Jeffrey Tambor. I’m so close to switching them but it seems like tapes matter less this year, which is why I’m sticking with the buzzy Tambor. But I’m gonna be kicking myself if Forte ends up winning.

     

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    Bradley Weir
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    #357429

    My 500 points bet is Claire Danes. It is crazy that she is currently 50/1, she is a two time winner for the same role and her show has made a comeback into best drama series and best drama directing. Danes is 50/1 and Maslany is 12/1? That is hilarious.

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    GusCruz
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    #357430

    My 500 points bet is Claire Danes. It is crazy that she is currently 50/1, she is a two time winner for the same role and her show has made a comeback into best drama series and best drama directing. Danes is 50/1 and Maslany is 12/1? That is hilarious.

    But she messed up her submission big time. I, too, want her to win, but…

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    KyleBailey
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    #357431

    Not a long shot but I’m giving my 500 to Bessie. 200 for Tambor and Directing for Transparent 

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    AMG
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    #357432

    Danes’ episode is still a great tape.

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    Bradley Weir
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    #357433

    [quote=”Bradderzzzz”]

    My 500 points bet is Claire Danes. It is crazy that she is currently 50/1, she is a two time winner for the same role and her show has made a comeback into best drama series and best drama directing. Danes is 50/1 and Maslany is 12/1? That is hilarious.

    But she messed up her submission big time. I, too, want her to win, but…
    [/quote]

    I don’t think submission is going to matter much at all for Danes. Homeland is back in the drama series category, they obviously still love the show. Carrie Mathison’s 3rd win is imminent.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #357434

    Homeland actually didn’t come back into Drama Series category. It was probably at 7th place last year, and it could also be at 7th spot this year, but thanks to the new rule, it is in. I would have seen Danes a threat if her show had garnered more than 4 nominations in total.

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