68th Tony Awards Discussion Predictions

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  • Macbeth
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    #431931

    I know its early, but we might as well start one. I will add to the master list below as time goes on. I am not very much a Broadway junkie yet, so if I miss something out please just inform me 🙂

    Best Musical
    Allegiance
    Aladdin
    First Date
    Let It Be
    Houdini
    A Gentleman’s Guide To Love and Murder
    Big Fish
    Prince of Broadway
    Always…Patsy Cline
    Diner
    Bullets Over Broadway
    Rocky
    If/Then
    Ever After
    Flashdance*
    Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
    Backbeat

    Best Play
    The Snow Geese
    Rear Window*

    Best Revival of a Musical
    Les Miserables

    Best Revival of a Play
    Romeo and Juliet 
    Waiting for Godot
    A Few Good Men*
    Betrayal
    The Winslow Boy
    No Man’s Land
    The Philadelphia Story*
    The Sunshine Boys
    Machinal 
    The Glass Menagerie 

    Best Actor in a Musical
    Telly Leung – Allegiance
    Zachary Levi – First Date
    Norbert Leo Butz – Big Fish
    Hugh Jackman – Houdini
    Jefferson Mays – A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder

    Best Actress in a Musical
    Krysta Rodriguez – First Date
    Crystal Bowersox – Always…Patsy Cline
    Idina Menzel – If/Then
    Lea Salonga – Allegiance

    Best Actor in a Play
    Orlando Bloom – Romeo and Juliet
    Daniel Craig – Betrayal
    Danny DeVito – The Sunshine Boys
    Billy Crystal – 700 Sundays 
    Mark Rylance – Richard III
    Ian McKellan – Waiting for Godot
    Patrick Stewart – Waiting for Godot
    Mark Rylance – Twelfth Night
    Ian McKellan- No Man’s Land
    Patrick Stewart – No Man’s Land

    Best Actress in a Play
    Condola Rashad – Romeo and Juliet
    Cherry Jones – The Glass Menagerie
    Rebecca Hall – Machinal
    Estelle Parsons – The Velocity of Autumn
    Mary-Louis Parker – The Snow Geese
    Rachel Weisz – Betrayal

    Best Featured Actor in a Musical
    George Takei – Allegiance
    Richard King – Prince of Broadway

    Best Featured Actress in a Musical
    Kate Baldwin – Big Fish 

    Best Featured Actor in a Play
    Zachary Quinto – The Glass Menagerie
    Rafe Spall – Betrayal

    Best Featured Actress in a Play
    TBA
     

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    SamEckmann
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    #431933

    Prince of Broadway is delayed and wont be showing up this season. Let it Be is another tribute, so it wont be eligible.  I could be wrong, but I though they also announced Flashdance would be delayed as well?

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    adamunc
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    #431934

    I thought Houdini was delayed as well? Didn’t Sorkin quit?

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    Macbeth
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    #431935

    I thought Houdini was delayed as well? Didn’t Sorkin quit?

    I worked according to Playbill’s list of upcoming shows, so I am not sure

    And all of those that are “in the works” have an asterisk next to it

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    24Emmy
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    #431936

    That’s a lot of new musicals. We usually only see about 8 new ones a year.

    Early prediction — In a close contest, Rocky beats Aladdin for Best Musical (pissing off a certain goldderby poster).

    I’m excited to see Aladdin, Bullets Over Broadway, and Rocky for sure.

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    David Buchanan
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    #431937

    There were rumblings that Donna Murphy and Patti LuPone were going to be doing an undisclosed musical together in the upcoming season, which would be unbelievable. Some hypothesized that it was Bullets Over Broadway, but in a recent interview, Patti stated that she auditioned for Bullets (I think for the Diane Weist role) and was turned away by Woody Allen, who just couldn’t see her in the part. 

    Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.

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    Benedick
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    #431938

    700 Sundays competed in the Special Theatrical Event category several years ago; it won’t be eligible again.

    Betrayal, Philadelphia Story, Machinal, Winslow Boy are all revivals. Philadelphia Story was also just postponed by Roundabout.

    Velocity of Autumn will play Arena Stage in the fall, might transfer, but no official word yet.

    Next season is sure to be the season of the new musical. Currently, there aren’t enough theaters to accomodate everything that wants in.
     

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    Macbeth
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    #431939

    Here are my very early, inexperienced, most likely completely wrong predictions:

    • Bullets over Broadway wins Best Musical, with it’s stiff competition being Rocky and Aladdin 
    • Seeming that it is the only new play announced so far, The Snow Geese wins Best Play
    • Les Miserables wins Best Revival of a Musical
    • Best Revival of a Play is between Waiting for Godot and The Sunshine Boys. Depending on who plays Lewis, I’m predicting The Sunshine Boys will take it.
    • I think Norbert Leo Butz will break his own record and win Best Actor in a Musical for a third time for Big Fish. However, depending on the stars of Bullets Over Broadway, it could go to one of them. 
    • Idina Menzel for the win for Best Actress in a Musical, no competition so far
    • Danny DeVito for the win for Best Actor in a Play, with possible competition being Mark Rylance, Ian McKellan or Patrick Stewart. I hope Rylance wins just to give us another fantastic speech
    • There is no front-runner I can see for Best Actress in a Play, but if Velocity of Autumn does come around in the upcoming season, then I can see a Cicely Tyson type thing happening for Estelle Parsons
    • So far the only frontrunner for Featured Actor in a Musical is George Takei for Allegiance.

     

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    Beau S.
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    #431940

    MAJOR, GLARING OMISSION FROM THE LIST: musical adaptation of The Bridges of Madison County. Directed by Bartlett Sher. Kelli O’Hara played the role in the workshops and is likely to reprise the role on Broadway as well.

    Whoever plays the genie in Aladdin will be a strong featured actor/actress contender depending on reception of the production.

    Whoever plays Jean Valjean will be nominated and depending on reception of the production, will win. Javert player also likely to be nominated.

    Romeo and Juliet is supposedly going to be starring an interracial couple, talk about that could be big.

    The Diane Wiest role in Bullets Over Broadway is more Oscar-friendly, but I feel that the Jennifer Tilly role is more Tony-friendly (in the musical categories, they tend to go for comedic performances). The role will likely go to a major Broadway starlet like Laura Benanti, Megan Hilty or Eden Espinosa. Personally I’d love to see Wiest’s role go to Glenn Close.

    Woody Allen will likely take Best Book. He may show up – since he loves New York and the Tony’s honor just that – but it’s unlikely.

    Score will probably go to either If/Then or Big Fish.

    As much as I love Butz, he will have to be drop-dead amazing to win a third Tony so quickly. And knowing him, he might be just that. But as I mentioned, he will have serious competition from the Les Mis guys.

    Rocky seems to me to have “flop” written all over it. It will probably be just big enough of a flop to get a Best Musical nomination. 

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    CAROL-CHANNING
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    #431941

    I saw Allegience at The Old Globe in San Diego.  Not a perfect musical, but it had a lot of potential.  The score was quite good, and the story was great.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see George Takei be the frontrunner for Featured Actor in a musical.  His role isn’t that big, but he is GREAT in it.

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    Macbeth
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    #431942

    Whoever plays the genie in Aladdin will be a strong featured actor/actress contender depending on reception of the production. 

    I personally am holding out for Robin Williams to reprise his role as the Genie – maybe then he can win a Tony and get the EGOT 

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    Irishmovielover4ever
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    #431943

    Could Anne Hathaway reprise her role of Fantine? If she did she would already be a lock no matter what happens I think.

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    Benedick
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    #431944

    MAJOR, GLARING OMISSION FROM THE LIST: musical adaptation of The Bridges of Madison County. Directed by Bartlett Sher. Kelli O’Hara played the role in the workshops and is likely to reprise the role on Broadway as well.

    Whoever plays the genie in Aladdin will be a strong featured actor/actress contender depending on reception of the production.

    Whoever plays Jean Valjean will be nominated and depending on reception of the production, will win. Javert player also likely to be nominated.

    Romeo and Juliet is supposedly going to be starring an interracial couple, talk about that could be big.

    The Diane Wiest role in Bullets Over Broadway is more Oscar-friendly, but I feel that the Jennifer Tilly role is more Tony-friendly (in the musical categories, they tend to go for comedic performances). The role will likely go to a major Broadway starlet like Laura Benanti, Megan Hilty or Eden Espinosa. Personally I’d love to see Wiest’s role go to Glenn Close.

    Woody Allen will likely take Best Book. He may show up – since he loves New York and the Tony’s honor just that – but it’s unlikely.

    Score will probably go to either If/Then or Big Fish.

    As much as I love Butz, he will have to be drop-dead amazing to win a third Tony so quickly. And knowing him, he might be just that. But as I mentioned, he will have serious competition from the Les Mis guys.

    Rocky seems to me to have “flop” written all over it. It will probably be just big enough of a flop to get a Best Musical nomination. 

    I have no clue where this assurance, a year out, of who and what will be nominated comes from.

    This “new production” of Les Miserables is basically the national tour, which is basically the original without a turntable, and has been stomping since 2010. The last time Les Mis was “revived” on Broadway it got a total of zero nominations for its cast. Calling anyone a lock to be nominated under such circumstances and this far out is fairly ridiculous. 

    The word on Big Fish in Chicago is not encouraging for its chances, whereas the word from Germany on Rocky has actually been surprisingly positive – and I don’t mean from German audiences, I mean from American theater professionals who have traveled there to see it.

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    Beau S.
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    #431945

    Everything I predict is based on source material, previous productions of shows, word from out of town, names involved and major developments for the production. There is no “assurance” whatsoever. As you said, it’s way too early for that. If I predicted anything to win, it was prefaced with a modifying adjective that suggested uncertainty. And I made clear the “based on reception of the production” factor.

    Having re-read my original post, I will admit I was hasty in my statements regarding the men from Les Mis. That was obviously an improper thing to say, and I apologize.

    Preliminary predictions are almost always 100% wrong. At this point last year I predicted Play Actor and Actress to go to Jim Parsons and Jessica Chastain. Obviously wrong. The purpose of this thread is to discuss and predict. That’s what I did. I try to see every show nominated every year, I have seen every Best Musical winner and all but one Best Play winner (all with original Broadway casts) since 2001 and I know what Tony voters like and are likely to vote for. I’m sure you do too. Right now, all I have to work with are, as I stated above, source material, previous productions of shows, word from out of town, names involved and major developments for the production.

    As for Big Fish and Rocky, it’s entirely possible and has happened before that a successful or unsuccessful out of town tryout receives polar opposite reception once it opens on Broadway. In an ideal world, both shows are amazing. As for Les Mis, the show has had a sudden surge in mainstream popularity thanks to the film and people are more familiar with it now more than ever before. My prediction (once again, prediction) is that it will be the highest grossing new production of the Broadway season. Alfie Boe, my personal standout from the reunion concert film, is reportedly in negotiations to play Valjean. As of right now, this sounds to me like a likely success. I recall the 2006 revival of Les Mis as very clunky with a feeling of having been rushed to be put together. Critics also gave it negative reviews, killing its Tony chances. If that happens for this production, its chances will also probably die.

    @Irishmovielover4ever – Hathaway reprising her role on Broadway would likely be very talked about and get a lot of attention. Although this can help shows (it helped The Lion King), it can also hurt shows (in addition to bad reviews, it really hurt Spiderman).

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    24Emmy
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    #431946

    [quote=”SalantBeau”]
    Whoever plays the genie in Aladdin will be a strong featured actor/actress contender depending on reception of the production. 

    I personally am holding out for Robin Williams to reprise his role as the Genie – maybe then he can win a Tony and get the EGOT [/quote]

    That needs to happen!

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