May 3, 2017 at 10:43 am #1202083473
So many races seem close to me. Do others see it this way? These are the races that I think are close:
Best Musical, Score, and Book: Evan vs. Natasha!
Best Actor in a Musical: Andy Karl vs. Ben Platt
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Gavin Creel vs. Andrew Rannells
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Stephanie J Block vs. Rachel Bay Jones
Best Director of a Musical: Rachel Chaivkin vs. Michael Greif vs. Jerry Zaks
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbeuhler vs. Sam Pinkleton
Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Mimi Lien vs. Santo Loquasto
Best Costume Design of a Musical: any of the four could win
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Natasha Katz for Bradley King
Best Play: any of the four; I am leaning towards A Doll’s House, Part 2
Best Actress: Laura Linney vs. Laurie Metcalf
Best Featured Actor: the conventional wisdom is Danny DeVito vs. Nathan Lane, but I am not so certain?
Best Featured Actress: Joanna Day vs. Cynthia Nixon
Best Director: any of the five could win
Best Revival: Jitney vs. The Little Foxes
Best Scenic Design: Nigel Hook vs. Douglas W Schmidt?
Best Lighting Design: I am leaning towards Christopher Akerlind; this one seems wide open?May 3, 2017 at 12:00 pm #1202083550
Here’s what I think the close races are in the musical categories…
Best Musical: Come From Away vs. Dear Evan Hansen vs. Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Lead Actor in a Musical: Andy Karl vs. Ben Platt
Featured Actor in a Musical: Gavin Creel vs. Lucas Steele
Featured Actress in a Musical: Jenn Colella vs. Rachel Bay Jones
Best Original Score: Dear Evan Hansen vs. The Great Comet
Best Book of a Musical: Come From Away vs. Dear Evan Hansen
Best Choreography: Peter Darling & Ellen Kane vs. Sam Pinkleton
Best Orchestrations: Hello, Dolly! vs. The Great Comet
Best Costume Design of a Musical: Hello, Dolly! vs. The Great Comet
I think if Falsettos was still running, it would definitely be a lot more in the conversation, but you have to go all the way back to 1999 when a closed production of a musical won an acting award (which was Martin Short for Little Me).May 3, 2017 at 1:42 pm #1202083641
Musical, Lead Actor and Score aren’t close at all. Dear Evan Hansen is winning all 3.May 3, 2017 at 2:40 pm #1202083653
I also think Bandstand has Choreography in the bag. The only real competition was Warren Carlyle, and since he’s ineligible, Blankenbuehler is a lock.May 3, 2017 at 3:02 pm #1202083677
I’m not sure about Bandstand taking Choreography. That musical only received a total of two nominations (its other was for Orchestrations). Again, you have to go all the way back to 1999 when a production that wasn’t nominated for Best Musical (nor Revival) ended up winning the Tony for Best Choreography. In that case, it was Swan Lake, which of course didn’t really fit the mold of a musical at all.May 3, 2017 at 3:42 pm #1202083692
I think that Groundhog Day has to be the frontrunner in Choreography. I think Bandstand could upset tho.May 3, 2017 at 5:40 pm #1202083752
Every review, no matter how mixed, praised Andy Blankenbuehler’s choreography. Groundhog Day didn’t even become a favorite for nomination until Hello, Dolly! was deemed ineligible.May 3, 2017 at 6:48 pm #1202083780
That’s true, but seeing how much better Groundhog Day did with nominations, it is clearly in a better position than Bandstand.
I like the underdogs and have predicted Bandstand to win it, but I don’t think that there is a clear frontrunner here.May 3, 2017 at 8:51 pm #1202083855
I think what we should really take into account for Best Choreography is The Great Comet. Whether that show ends up winning Best Musical or not, it could still win the most Tonys of the night by sweeping through the design awards, direction, choreography, etc.May 3, 2017 at 9:01 pm #1202083867
I was most impressed this season with the choreography in Holiday Inn and The Great Comet. I’d go with Comet just based on its strength in the design categories.
Aside from that, the first post is wayyyy off on who the Tony is between. I would make a list of my own, but it’s too much for right now especially since I’d have to totally redo that whole first post.May 5, 2017 at 12:47 pm #1202085186
I think the featured actor categories are the closest – DeVito vs. Thompson and Creel vs. Steele. Both Featured Actress categories also have three strong possibilities, though Nixon and Bay Jones will probably take them.
I don’t see Kline, Metcalf, Platt, or Midler losing.
Dolly is winning, of course. Jitney is competitive, but it helps that The Little Foxes is still running. New play is probably down to Oslo vs. ADH; Indecent doesn’t have the reviews and Sweat needed a director nomination to remain competitive. I don’t buy Come from Away’s surge, which mean it’s DEH vs. Great Comet, edge Hansen. Great Comet may be too divisive to win – but I am sensing a slight backlash against DEH as well.May 5, 2017 at 12:55 pm #1202085192
I think we should rule out Danny DeVito as a possible winner for Featured Actor in a Play. He’s the only nomination The Price received, and it’s hard for a sole nominee to win.
I remember back in 2013 that some people were predicting Richard Kind to win for Roundabout’s production of The Big Knife, despite the fact that he was the only nomination that show received. Yet, Courtney B. Vance ended up winning for Lucky Guy.May 5, 2017 at 1:32 pm #1202085202
I think that’s a good rule of thumb for below-the-line categories, but I don’t think that’s true of acting categories. It’s definitely a disadvantage for DeVito, but I don’t think it kills his chances. His performance has certainly gotten the most press of the five nominees, perhaps excepting Nathan Lane.