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EWs Tony Predictions (Updated: USA Today, Time Out NY)

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  • Atypical
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    #431260

    They’re one of the few publications that do Tony predictions, so I thought it was worth sharing. I’ll highlight the major categories/analysis and provide the link for the rest.

    Tony Awards 2012: We predict the winners
    by Thom Geier

    Now is the time for Newsies fans and theater geeks everywhere to seize the day! It’s Tony time! This Sunday, Neil Patrick Harris will be donning his tux once again to host the annual celebration of Broadway’s finest moments. And in a repeat from last year’s NPH-led event, expect another rash of jokes at the expense of Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark. Fellow EW critic Melissa Rose Bernardo and I here offer our predictions in all the Tony categories (you’ll see our names after each of our picks). Disagree? Please let us know who you think will win — or should win — in the comments section. (For more Stage coverage, go to EW.com’s Stage hub.)

    Best Play
    Clybourne Park (Thom)
    Other Desert Cities
    (Melissa)
    Peter and the Starcatcher
    Venus in Fur

    It’s one of the strongest years in recent memory for new American plays. While Jon Robin Baitz’s Other Desert Cities won wide acclaim when it opened last year, I give the edge to Pulitzer winner Clybourne Park.

    Best Musical
    Leap of Faith
    Newsies
    (Melissa, Thom)
    Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Once

    This is a two-way race between movie-based hits that each have an underdog story: Once and Newsies. The former is charming but relatively small-scale. And since a sizable number of Tony voters handle Broadway tours throughout the country, a more traditional, broader-based hit like Newsies is likely to win out.

    Best Revival of a Play
    Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Thom, Melissa)
    Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
    Master Class
    Wit

    One of the most acclaimed revivals in years will get its due.

    Best Revival of a Musical
    Evita
    Follies
    (Melissa)
    The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    (Thom)
    Jesus Christ Superstar

    Most prognosticators, including Melissa, are picking director Eric Schaeffer’s acclaimed revival of the problematic Stephen Sondheim musical. While the show is now playing in Los Angeles with virtually its entire cast intact, it’s been off Broadway since January—and Schaeffer himself didn’t get a directing nomination. Not so directing nominee Diane Paulus, who’s overcome a storm of Sondheim-led controversy about her reinterpretation of Porgy and Bess and emerged (mostly) triumphant.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
    James Corden – One Man, Two Guvnors
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Melissa, Thom)
    James Earl Jones – Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
    Frank Langella – Man and Boy
    John Lithgow – The Columnist

    This race isn’t even close. Attention will be paid.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
    Nina Arianda – Venus in Fur (Thom)
    Tracie Bennett – End of the Rainbow (Melissa)
    Stockard Channing – Other Desert Cities
    Linda Lavin – The Lyons
    Cynthia Nixon – Wit

    In a three-way race, I’m picking the ingenue Nina Arianda for her star-making turn in Venus in Fur. But British actress Tracie Bennett also delivers a singular and bravura turn as Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow. And you can’t completely rule out Stockard Channing’s delightfully frosty performance as a Republican doyenne in Other Desert Cities.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
    Danny Burstein – Follies
    Jeremy Jordan – Newsies (Melissa)
    Steve Kazee – Once (Thom)
    Norm Lewis – The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Ron Raines – Follies

    This is essentially a two-way race between this season’s rookie of the year, Jeremy Jordan (who also starred in this season’s short-lived Bonnie and Clyde), and the journeyman actor in his first major starring role, Steve Kazee.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
    Jan Maxwell – Follies
    Audra McDonald – The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess (Melissa, Thom)
    Cristin Milioti – Once
    Kelli O’Hara – Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Laura Osnes – Bonnie & Clyde

    I expect Audra McDonald will pick up her fifth Tony Award for another stellar performance in a challenging role.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
    Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
    Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow
    Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (Melissa, Thom)
    Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

    Smash star Christian Borle may peel off some votes, but it’s hard to imagine his campy turn as a malaprop-spouting pirate would upset Andrew Garfield’s heartfelt performance as Biff in a dramatic classic.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
    Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman
    Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner
    Cella Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher
    Judith Light, Other Desert Cities (Melissa, Thom)
    Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

    A nominee in this category last year for Lombardi, the former star of Who’s the Boss? will finally claim the prize.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
    Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Michael Cerveris, Evita (Thom)
    David Alan Grier, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess (Melissa)
    Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

    The two Porgy and Bess stars are both deserving (and David Alan Grier’s is the flashier of the two), but I fear they may cancel each other out. That leaves Michael Cerveris, a Tony winner in this category for 2004′s Assassins and the strongest element of the new Evita revival.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
    Elizabeth A. Davis, Once
    Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
    Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It (Melissa, Thom)
    Jesse Mueller, On a Clear Day You Can See Forever
    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost

    This category is a face-off between two veterans: Jayne Houdyshell, the Broadway baby of Follies, and Judy Kaye, who literally swings from a chandelier in Nice Work If You Can Get It. Swing for the chandelier!

    Best Direction of a Play
    Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park
    Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman (Melissa, Thom)
    Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, Peter and the Starcatcher

    Expect Nichols to accept his ninth Tony.

    Best Direction of a Musical
    Jeff Calhoun, Newsies (Thom)
    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Diane Paulus, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    John Tiffany, Once (Melissa)

    It’s the Newsies vs. Once fight all over again.

    See the rest of the predictions and analysis here:

    http://popwatch.ew.com/2012/06/04/tony-awards-2012-predict-winners/

    Reply
    dannyboy.
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    #431262

    Wow! They are SO Newsies heavy. My picks differ from there’s at least 80% so either I’m way off or they are. Lead and Featured Actor are not nearly as slam-dunkish as they are saying for the Death of a Salesman duo. They may certainly both prevail but Borle and Corden are literally nipping at their heels. I could see both Garfield and PSH losing, although my predictions are PSH winning Lead Actor and Borle beating Garfield for Featured.

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    adamunc
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    #431263

    Can’t believe they totally discount Burstein. I’m picking him for the win.

    I also think Michael McGrath is the front-runner for Featured Actor and they discount him as well.

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    dannyboy.
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    #431264

    Am sticking with Burstein as well.. He doesn’t even get a mention?

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    CAROL-CHANNING
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    #431265

    Yeah, these predictions are pretty wimpy.. It seems like they haven’t even been paying to the awards season this year.

    Once has won the other awards.  Even the Drama Desk.    But with their predictions, they make it seem like there is no question that Newsies will take it.

    They don’t even mention Burstein, who is the frontrunner.

    Michael McGrath is the frontrunner for Featured Actor in a musical.

    And what on Earth do James Corden and Christian Borle have to do to prove to everyone that they are the frontrunners for Lead and Features actors in a play?  All of the papers seem to call Death of A Salesman a slam dunk in every single category, but I really don’t think it is.  I see it taking Revival and director (just because it’s Mike Nichols).  The production got very good reviews, but they weren’t all the huge, enormous raves that the Tony Predictors are making it out to be. 

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    Madson Melo
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    #431266

    the success in the box office of Death of a Salesman is probably affecting the bets lol

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    Balthazar
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    #431267

    I agree that there seems to be some discrepancies in the predictions this year.  Burstein vs. Jordan, McGrath vs. Cerveris.  I’m thinking Danny Burstein & Michael McGrath.  Does anyone know when the NYTimes Poll results hit the newsstands?

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    Atypical
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    #431268

    I’ll go ahead and post the rest of the predictions:

    Best Book of a Musical
    Lysistrata Jones
    Newsies (Melissa, Thom)
    Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Once

    Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
    Bonnie & Clyde
    Newsies (Melissa, Thom)
    One Man, Two Guvnors
    Peter and the Starcatcher

    Yes, the last two nominees are non-musicals. Best Musical nominees Once and Nice Work If You Can Get It were ineligible since their scores were made up of pre-existing material. And the nominators really, really didn’t like Ghost and Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark. That should mean a win for composer Alan Menken and lyricist Jack Feldman, who wrote a bunch of news songs to supplement their tunes from the 1992 movie Newsies.

    Best Choreography
    Rob Ashford, Evita
    Christopher Gattelli, Newsies (Melissa, Thom)
    Steven Hoggett, Once
    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Newsies boasts some of the most energetic and athletic hoofing seen on stage in years.

    Best Scenic Design of a Play
    John Lee Beatty, Other Desert Cities
    Daniel Ostling, Clybourne Park (Melissa, Thom)
    Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher

    Donyale Werle’s set for Peter and the Starcatcher is charmingly clever, but Daniel Ostling’s design for Clybourne Park is virtually another character. In the first act, we see a 1959 home in a solid middle-class neighborhood; in act 2, that same home is a graffiti-strewn shell of its former self fifty years later.

    Best Scenic Design of a Musical
    Bob Crowley, Once
    Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, Ghost the Musical
    Tobin Ost and Sven Ortel, Newsies (Melissa)
    George Tsypin, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark (Thom)

    Say what you will about this $72 million production, there’s no denying the genius of George Tsypin’s sets.

    Best Costume Design of a Play
    William Ivey Long, Don’t Dress for Dinner
    Paul Tazewell, A Streetcar Named Desire
    Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Paloma Young, Peter and the Starcatcher (Melissa, Thom)

    For her homespun mermaid outfits alone, Paloma Young deserves the prize.

    Best Costume Design of a Musical
    Gregg Barnes, Follies (Melissa, Thom)
    ESosa, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Eiko Ishioka, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark
    Martin Pakledinaz, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Best Lighting Design of a Play
    Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher (Thom)
    Peter Kaczorowski, The Road to Mecca
    Brian MacDevitt, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Melissa)
    Kenneth Posner, Other Desert Cities

    Death of a Salesman is the classy, artful choice. But Jeff Croiter’s work for Peter and the Starcatcher is showier and more innovative.

    Best Lighting Design of a Musical
    Christopher Akerlind, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Natasha Katz, Follies
    Natasha Katz, Once
    Hugh Vanstone, Ghost: the Musical (Melissa, Thom)

    Though there’s not much love for Ghost overall, Hugh Vanstone is the most deserving for keeping star Richard Fleeshman in a ghostly bluish light throughout the show — even when Fleeshman is dueting with costar Caissie Levy.

    Best Sound Design of a Play
    Paul Arditti, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Scott Lehrer, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    Gareth Owen, End of the Rainbow (Thom)
    Darron L. West, Peter and the Starcatcher (Melissa)

    Best Sound Design of a Musical
    Acme Sound Partners, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Clive Goodwin, Once (Melissa, Thom)
    Kai Harada, Follies
    Brian Ronan, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Best Orchestrations
    William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess (Melissa)
    Bill Elliott, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Martin Lowe, Once (Thom)
    Danny Troob, Newsies

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    Atypical
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    #431269

    Tonys take center stage: Who will/should win?

    Once again it’s time for Broadway to recognize its best and brightest. Contenders at Sunday’s Tony Awards include a mixed bag of revivals, some interesting new plays and, predictably, several movie-based musicals. USA TODAY’s Elysa Gardner surveys the field and tries to determine which/who will take the prize, and which/who ought to.

    Best play

    Clybourne Park (Bruce Norris)

    Other Desert Cities (Jon Robin Baitz)

    Peter and the Starcatcher (Rick Elice)

    Venus in Fur (David Ives)

    Should win: Other Desert Cities didn’t aim to preach or shock; it did something bolder, showing us the funny, frustrating humanity that binds people of different generations and beliefs.

    Will win: Clybourne Park‘s darkly comic study of race relations was more in-your-face — and ultimately as obvious as the nose on it. Still, its audacity was widely hailed (and astutely promoted).

    Best musical

    Leap of Faith

    Newsies

    Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Once

    Should win: It’s a thin crop, but Newsies is the best, and the least cynical, of the bunch.

    Will win: Champions of the precious, self-congratulatory Once will secure a (narrow) Cinderella victory over Disney.

    Best revival of a play

    Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

    Master Class

    Wit

    Should/will win: Salesman director Mike Nichols had by far the best material, and he and his starry cast did it heart-wrenching justice.

    Best revival of a musical

    Evita

    Follies

    The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Jesus Christ Superstar

    Should/will win: The Kennedy Center-based Follies, beautifully directed by Eric Schaeffer (a conspicuous omission among nominees), drew wide praise in its New York incarnation.

    Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a play

    James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors

    Philip Seymour Hoffman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

    Frank Langella, Man and Boy

    John Lithgow, The Columnist

    Should/will win: Corden’s brilliant comic turn could provide an upset, but Hoffman’s brutally tragic Willy Loman is the safer bet.

    Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a play

    Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

    Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

    Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities

    Linda Lavin, The Lyons

    Cynthia Nixon, Wit

    Should/will win: All were superb, but Arianda and Bennett gave the most flamboyant performances; Bennett’s was poignant to boot, and will prevail.

    Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a musical

    Danny Burstein, Follies

    Jeremy Jordan, Newsies

    Steve Kazee, Once

    Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Ron Raines, Follies

    Should win: Whether you bought the newly adapted Porgy or not, Lewis was magnificent in the title role.

    Will win: This one’s tough. Theater fave Burstein and toothsome young leading men Jordan and Kazee will give Lewis a run for his money. Let’s say it’ll be Kazee, by a handsome nose.

    Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a musical

    Jan Maxwell, Follies

    Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Cristin Milioti, Once

    Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

    Should/will win: Longtime critical darling Audra McDonald, a four-time winner as featured actress, gave her strongest performance to date and is pretty much a shoo-in.

    Best direction of a play

    Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors

    Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park

    Mike Nichols, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, Peter and the Starcatcher

    Should/will win: Hytner and Nichols both did seamless work with flawless casts, but the latter is unbeatable here.

    Best direction of a musical

    Jeff Calhoun, Newsies

    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Diane Paulus, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    John Tiffany, Once

    Should win: Paulus brought guts, heart and, yes, respect to a new interpretation of a beloved classic.

    Will win: Once‘s many admirers will put Tiffany over the top.

    Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a play

    Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

    Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow

    Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors

    Andrew Garfield, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

    Should/will win: Tony voters love few things better than a genuinely robust performance by a film star, particularly a rising star such as Garfield.

    Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a play

    Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner

    Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher

    Judith Light, Other Desert Cities

    Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

    Should/will win: With great dignity, and without sentimentality, Emond reconfirmed Linda Loman’s place at the moral center of Salesman.

    Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a musical

    Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Michael Cerveris, Evita

    David Alan Grier, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

    Should/will win: Broadway treasure Cerveris was the best reason to see Evita, and will be acknowledged as such.

    Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a musical

    Elizabeth A. Davis, Once

    Jayne Houdyshell, Follies

    Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Jessie Mueller, On A Clear Day You Can See Forever

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

    Should/will win: Veteran character actresses Kaye and Houdyshell charmed critics and audiences; Kaye’s longer list of principal Broadway roles gives her a slight advantage.

    Best book of a musical

    Lysistrata Jones (Douglas Carter Beane)

    Newsies (Harvey Fierstein)

    Nice Work If You Can Get It (Joe DiPietro)

    Once (Enda Walsh)

    Should win: Fierstein’s unapologetically cute libretto for Newsies.

    Will win: Walsh’s self-consciously cute libretto for Once.

    Best original score (music and/or lyrics) written for the theater

    Bonnie & Clyde (Music by Frank Wildhorn, lyrics by Don Black)

    Newsies (Music by Alan Menken, lyrics by Jack Feldman)

    One Man, Two Guvnors (Music and lyrics by Grant Olding)

    Peter and the Starcatcher (Wayne Barker, Rick Elice)

    Should/will win: Scrooge himself wouldn’t deny Newsies composer Menken — a beloved hitmaker, and an also-ran in this category three times before — a victory in this lackluster season.

    Best choreography

    Rob Ashford, Evita

    Christopher Gattelli, Newsies

    Steven Hoggett, Once

    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Should/will win: Gattelli’s breathless dance routines reinforced the youthful exuberance that is Newsies‘ most valuable asset.

    Best orchestrations

    William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

    Bill Elliott, Nice Work If You Can Get It

    Martin Lowe, Once

    Danny Troob, Newsies

    Should/will win: Lowe served Once‘s folk-pop ditties with such vibrance that you could almost forget how pompous and generic they are.

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    Madson Melo
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    #431270

    Garfield has the critics previsions and in the gold derby forum too, I hope he prevails!

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    Atypical
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    #431271

    2012 Tony Award predictions

    If you’re betting at home or in the office on the 2012 Tony Awards, follow our picks. We call the winners and losers, down to the last percentile.

    by David Cote and Adam Feldman

    Predicting the Tony Awards is always an imperfect science. And after a season like 2011–12, with no “Book of Mormon” or “War Horse” to dominate the field, it’s even trickier. That’s why below you’ll find several close races in the major categories. Among musicals and plays, there is no obvious runaway hit, but rather a series of niche shows catering to various tastes and (luckily) finding audiences. For artists and ticket buyers that’s great: It means more options. But for pundits like us, it makes for plenty of nail-biting. Still, we kicked butt last year, so trust TONY’s picks.

    Best Play

    “Clybourne Park” 46%

    “Other Desert Cities” 41%

    “Peter and the Starcatcher” 12%

    “Venus in Fur” 1%

    The race: Bruce Norris’s “Clybourne Park” is far superior to Jon Robin Baitz’s soapy soapbox “Other Desert Cities,” but voting will still be closely divided between them. “Clybourne”’s 2011 Pulitzer and more recent opening gives it the edge.

    Best Musical

    “Once” 48%

    ”Newsies” 46%

    “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 6%

    “Leap of Faith” 0%

    The race: The biggest, most lucrative musical of the year tends to beat the smaller, artier competition—unless it’s perceived as a show for kids (like “Wicked” and “Mary Poppins”). It’ll be close, but “Once” may well pull an upset over the Disney hit “Newsies.”

    Best Revival of a Play

    “Death of a Salesman” 80%

    “The Best Man” 17%

    “Wit” 2%

    “Master Class” 1%

    The race: Attention has been paid to Mike Nichols’s stunning, utterly faithful remounting of the classic “Salesman.” The production muscles out the worthy but comparatively lightweight “Best Man.”

    Best Revival of a Musical

    “Follies” 47%

    “Porgy and Bess” 42%

    “Evita” 9%

    “Jesus Christ Superstar” 2%

    The race: With “Porgy and Bess” still hobbled by the controversy that preceded its arrival on Broadway, look for “Follies,” that unsentimental sentimental favorite, to win the Tony it deserved 40 years ago.

    Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

    Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Death of a Salesman” 51%

    James Corden, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 36%

    John Lithgow, “The Columnist” 8%

    James Earl Jones, “The Best Man” 3%

    Frank Langella, “Man and Boy” 2%

    The race: Tragedy beats comedy. Even though Corden is a superb clown and works the crowd like a champ, Hoffman’s Willy Loman is a monument splashed with blood, sweat, and tears. The rest, veteran character actors, don’t place.

    Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

    Nina Arianda, “Venus in Fur” 27%

    Tracie Bennett, “End of the Rainbow” 26%

    Linda Lavin, “The Lyons” 25%

    Stockard Channing, “Other Desert Cities” 21%

    Cynthia Nixon, “Wit” 1%

    The race: Everyone but Nixon has a real shot in the year’s most competitive race. If Lavin’s and Channing’s Jewish dragon moms cancel each other out, Arianda’s virtuosic, star-making turn could outdazzle Bennett’s overhyped stab at Judy Garland.

    Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

    Jeremy Jordan, “Newsies” 39%

    Steve Kazee, “Once” 36%

    Norm Lewis, “Porgy and Bess” 22%

    Danny Burstein, “Follies” 12%

    Ron Raines, “Follies” 1%

    The race: Kazee’s sensitive studliness bumps up the romance in “Once,” but it’s Jordan’s season. He bounced back from “Bonnie & Clyde” to star in a second new musical just months later, and his youthful charisma helped “Newsies” strike gold.

    Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

    Audra McDonald, “Porgy and Bess” 42%

    Jan Maxwell, “Follies” 27%

    Cristin Milioti, “Once” 20%

    Kelli O’Hara, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 10%

    Laura Osnes, “Bonnie & Clyde” 1%

    The race: Even though Milioti crafted one of the most vibrant, quirky characters of the season, the awesomely talented McDonald redefined the problematic Bess. It’s her Tony to lose—and she won’t.

    Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

    Christian Borle, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 41%

    Andrew Garfield, “Death of a Salesman” 35%

    Jeremy Shamos, “Clybourne Park” 14%

    Tom Edden, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 9%

    Michael Cumpsty, “End of the Rainbow” 1%

    The race: It’s not just Borle enjoying a “Smash” bump; he steals his scenes with furious élan as piratical fop Black Stache. In another year, the hilarious Shamos (or even Edden) might have a shot at it.

    Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

    Judith Light, “Other Desert Cities” 49%

    Linda Emond, “Death of a Salesman” 36%

    Celia Keenan-Bolger, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 7%

    Spencer Kayden, “Don’t Dress for Dinner” 5%

    Condola Rashad, “Stick Fly” 3%

    The race: Everyone in the theater industry seems to take a shine to Light, and her sharp performance as a bitter, frazzled alkie in “Other Desert Cities” is a perfect chance to show this consummate pro some love.

    Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

    Michael Cerveris, “Evita” 43%

    Phillip Boykin, “Porgy and Bess” 37%

    Michael McGrath, “Nice Work if You Can Get It” 11%

    David Alan Grier, “Porgy and Bess” 7%

    Josh Young, “Jesus Christ Superstar” 2%

    The race: The nominators loudly snubbed his “Evita” costars, but Cerveris is poised to win for his strangely soulful Perón—though Boykin deserves it more for his superbly sung and acted Crown.

    Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

    Judy Kaye, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 43%

    Jayne Houdyshell, “Follies” 35%

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “Ghost” 14%

    Jessie Mueller, “On a Clear Day You Can See Forever” 7%

    Elizabeth A. Davis, “Once” 1%

    The race: If the mediocre “Nice Work” gets any love on Tony night, it will be for trouper Judy Kaye’s amusing turn as a Prohibition-era bluenose. There’s plenty of talent among the other contenders, but Kaye clinches it with seniority.

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    Atypical
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    #431272

    Best Book of a Musical

    “Once,” Enda Walsh 53%

    “Newsies,” Harvey Fierstein 44%

    “Nice Work If You Can Get It,” Joe DiPietro 2%

    “Lysistrata Jones,” Douglas Carter Beane 1%

    The race: Tony favorite Harvey Fierstein did a canny job of reworking “Newsies”’ screenplay for the stage, but Walsh’s book—also adapted from a movie—wins for grown-up emotion and structural inventiveness.

    Best Original Score

    “Newsies,” Alan Menken and Jack Feldman 91%

    “Bonnie & Clyde,” Frank Wildhorn and Don Black 7%

    “One Man, Two Guvnors,” Grant Olding 1%

    “Peter and the Starcatcher,” Wayne Barker and Rick Elice 1%

    The race: More a default victory than a stamp of excellence, since Menken and Feldman’s pastiche tunes are decent if formulaic. And what are they up against? Frank Wildhorn’s least crummy score and incidental music. It’s a “Memphis” year.

    Best Direction of a Play

    Mike Nichols, “Death of a Salesman” 90%

    Pam MacKinnon, “Clybourne Park” 5%

    Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 4%

    Nicholas Hytner, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 1%

    The race: If Mike Nichols doesn’t win this tacit career-achievement award for his megahit revival, the floor of the Beacon Theatre will open up and swallow every man, woman, and Newsies faux-child whole.

    Best Direction of a Musical

    John Tiffany, “Once” 43%

    Jeff Calhoun, “Newsies” 35%

    Diane Paulus, “Porgy and Bess” 17%

    Kathleen Marshall, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 5%

    The race: The most organic and adult musical of the season, most agree, is “Once,” and Tiffany’s graceful, tasteful staging beats the corporate “Newsies” and Paulus’s reduced “Porgy.”

    Best Scenic Design of a Play

    Donyale Werle, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 55%

    Daniel Ostling, “Clybourne Park” 34%

    John Lee Beatty, “Other Desert Cities” 6%

    Mark Thompson, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 5%

    The race: “Peter and the Starcatcher”’s actors nearly get upstaged by Werle’s whimsical Victorian toy theater. Resourcefully constructed out of found objects and cloth, the set is festooned with eclectic items, giving the production a perfect sense of children at play.

    Best Scenic Design of a Musical

    George Tsypin, “Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark” 36%

    Bob Crowley, “Once” 23%

    Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, “Ghost” 21%

    Tobin Ost and Sven Ortel, “Newsies” 20%

    The race: Say what you will about “Spider-Man”—and Lord knows, people have said enough—it is a dazzling spectacle whose physical impressiveness has ensnared thousands of tourists like flies.

    Best Costume Design of a Play

    Paloma Young, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 68%

    Mark Thompson, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 19%

    William Ivey Long, “Don’t Dress for Dinner” 9%

    Paul Tazewell, “A Streetcar Named Desire” 4%

    The race: Continuing “Peter”’s dominance of the visual categories, Paloma Young’s outfits take 19th-century silhouettes—naval uniforms, pirate motley, orphan rags—and give them a stylish modern twist. Historical fantasy takes the prize.

    Best Costume Design of a Musical

    Gregg Barnes, “Follies” 49%

    Eiko Ishioka, “Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark” 43%

    Martin Pakledinaz, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 5%

    ESosa, “Porgy and Bess” 3%

    The race: The late Ishioka has a strong chance of winning for her ultra-showy cartoon get-ups in “Spider-Man,” but Barnes’s extravagant “Follies” outfits channeled nostalgia for the Ziegfeld era into beautifully evocative forms.

    Best Lighting Design of a Play

    Jeff Croiter, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 46%

    Brian MacDevitt, “Death of a Salesman” 41%

    Kenneth Posner, “Other Desert Cities” 9%

    Peter Kaczorowski, “The Road to Mecca” 4%

    The race: Croiter’s lighting adds essential elucidation to the theatrical hurly-burly of “Peter and the Starcatcher”’s approach to narrative—shaping the action, reflecting the piece’s shifting tones, and creating moments of touching stage magic.

    Best Lighting Design of a Musical

    Natasha Katz, “Once” 38%

    Hugh Vanstone, “Ghost” 30%

    Natasha Katz, “Follies” 21%

    Christopher Akerlind, “Porgy and Bess” 11%

    The race: You might think “Once”’s low-key effects (pub gloom, Dublin dawn, a few mood washes) would lose to “Ghost”’s extravagant technical flourishes and high-tech illusions. But Katz’s work is admirably keyed in to the emotional states of the main characters. Plus, there’s plenty of disdain for “Ghost.”

    Best Sound Design of a Play

    Darron L. West, “Peter and the Starcatcher” 40%

    Gareth Owen, “End of the Rainbow” 33%

    Scott Lehrer, “Death of a Salesman” 18%

    Paul Arditti, “One Man, Two Guvnors” 9%

    The race: Plays with a lot of music in them have an edge in this category. And while there’s more high-octane belting in “End of the Rainbow,” and more subtle grace notes in “Death of a Salesman,” Darron L. West’s inventive, layered soundscape for “Peter” wins.

    Best Sound Design of a Musical

    Clive Goodwin, “Once” 47%

    Kai Harada, “Follies” 44%

    Acme Sound Partners, “Porgy and Bess” 7%

    Brian Ronan, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 2%

    The race: “Follies” had more noticeable cues, but Goodwin’s impeccable design keeps “Once” from sounding mushy, integrating every onstage instrument into a warm, clean whole.

    Best Choreography

    Christopher Gattelli, “Newsies” 53%

    Rob Ashford, “Evita” 34%

    Steven Hoggett, “Once” 8%

    Kathleen Marshall, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 5%

    The race: If this race were based on dance that saves a show, then Ashford’s smart, Latin-flavored moves for the underwhelming “Evita” would nab the gold. But Gattelli’s jubilant newsboy numbers—athletic, balletic, telling a story of boys becoming men—will make the Monday-morning headlines.

    Best Orchestrations

    Martin Lowe, “Once” 43%

    William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, “Porgy and Bess” 30%

    Danny Troob, “Newsies” 19%

    Bill Elliott, “Nice Work If You Can Get It” 8%

    The race: Brohn and Jahnke’s artful reduction of the operatic Gershwin score takes orchestral talent, but there’s too little love for the musicalized “Porgy and Bess”— whereas Martin Lowe did an outstanding job of expanding some spare folk-rock tunes for a Broadway ensemble.

    The 2012 Tony Awards will be broadcast on CBS Sun 10 at 8pm..

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    Balthazar
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    Apr 6th, 2012
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    #431273

    Coming from Lexington, Kentucky, I’d like to note that Steve Kazee has
    received quite a bit of press here.  Today’s newspaper lists Jeremy
    Jordan & Norm Lewis as his prime competition (Danny Burstein &
    Ron Raines are noted only parenthetically as modest contenders). This seems to align with TIME OUT NY’s take on this race. 

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